PBA race for Top 2 remains wide open

Games today (Smart Araneta Coliseum)

3 p.m. – Kia vs NLEX

5:15 p.m. – Ginebra vs Rain or Shine

MANILA, Philippines - Five games are left in the PBA Philippine Cup eliminations schedule and it’s still not certain which two teams will finish at the top of the standings to clinch outright tickets to the semifinals.

The games remaining are Kia Sorento-NLEX and Barangay Ginebra-Rain Or Shine at the Smart Araneta Coliseum and a rare tripleheader at the Cuneta Astrodome on Tuesday – Purefoods-Barako at 2 p.m., Blackwater-San Miguel Beer at 4:15 p.m. and Globalport-Meralco at 7 p.m.

No playoffs will be set to break ties, meaning the quotient system is the only determining factor.

In the tournament format, the top two teams automatically qualify for the semifinals so they gain a break of over a week while the other teams battle to find out who will advance to the Final Four.

In the quarterfinal pairings, No. 3 plays No. 10, No. 4 against No. 9, No. 5 against No. 8 and No. 6 against No. 7 with the higher seeds enjoying a twice-to-beat advantage.

Winners of the four series then slug it out in separate knockout games for the right to move up to the semifinals.

There will be no complications if Rain Or Shine and San Miguel Beer win their final assignments. That would improve their records to 9-2, leaving Alaska and Talk ‘N’ Text behind.

In this case, San Miguel will claim pole position due to its 87-79 win over the Elasto Painters during the eliminations. It’s the winner-over-the-other rule in effect.

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If the Painters beat Ginebra, Purefoods will suffer collateral damage. That will bring down Ginebra’s record to 6-5. If Purefoods beats Barako on Tuesday, the Hotshots’ record elevates to 6-5.

Globalport and Meralco battle on Tuesday and one team will finish at 6-5 and the other, 5-6. This will create a three-way tie for No. 5. The logjam will be broken by the quotient system so that the top two teams earn a twice-to-beat advantage at No. 5 and No. 6 while the team with the lowest quotient falls to No. 7.

Because Purefoods lost to Ginebra by 23, the Hotshots are in a deep hole in a three-way tie with either Globalport or Meralco.

If Ginebra loses and Purefoods and Globalport win, it will be Globalport at No. 5 with +15 , Ginebra at No. 6 with +2 and Purefoods at No. 7 with -17. If Ginebra loses and Purefoods and Meralco win, it will be Ginebra at No. 5 with +13, Meralco at No. 6 with +7 and Purefoods at No. 7 with -20.

Purefoods’ only hope to earn a twice-to-beat advantage is for Ginebra to beat Rain Or Shine and the Hotshots to beat Barako.

That way, Ginebra moves up to 7-5 and clinches No. 5. Purefoods improves to 6-5 which will be the ending record of either Globalport or Meralco.

Purefoods defeated both Globalport and Meralco in the eliminations so in a two-way tie, the Hotshots will move up.

There’s a possibility of a four-way tie for first. That will happen if Rain Or Shine loses to Ginebra and San Miguel bows to Blackwater. Then, four teams will be tied for first with identical 8-3 records.

In this situation, Talk ‘N’ Text zooms to No. 1 with +27, Alaska claims No. 2 with +2, San Miguel drops to No. 3 with -1 and Rain Or Shine falls to No. 4 with -28.

Let’s assume that Rain Or Shine, San Miguel, NLEX, Purefoods and Meralco will win.

Here’s how they’ll end up – No. 1 San Miguel 9-2, No. 2 Rain Or Shine 9-2, No. 3 Alaska 8-3, No. 4 Talk ‘N’ Text 8-3, No. 5 Ginebra 6-5, No. 6 Meralco 6-5, No. 7 Purefoods 6-5, No. 8 Globalport 5-6, No. 9 Barako 4-7, No. 10 NLEX 4-7, No. 11 Kia 1-10 and No. 12 Blackwater 0-11.

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The game between NLEX and Kia is actually no-bearing. NLEX will finish at No. 10 whether or not it beats the Sorento. Kia will also end up at No. 11 whether or not it beats NLEX.

Fans are hoping that Kia playing coach Manny Pacquiao will see action in the 3 p.m. contest today. Expect a big roar and wild cheering from the crowd if and when Pacquiao finally scores his first point in the PBA.

Pacquiao is due. In his first game against Kia, he didn’t take a single shot. And in his second game against Meralco last Wednesday, the WBO welterweight champion missed in two three-point attempts.

If Rain Or Shine loses and San Miguel wins, the Beermen take the No. 1 seed at 9-2. The Painters drop to a tie for second with Alaska and Talk ‘N’ Text at 8-3 each. In this situation, Talk ‘N’ Text takes No. 2, Alaska No. 3 and Rain Or Shine No. 4.

So the game against Ginebra is vital for Rain Or Shine – the Painters finish either No. 2 or No. 4 depending on the outcome. A Ginebra victory will also boost Purefoods’ chances for a twice-to-beat advantage in the quarters.

At the moment, the league’s two hottest teams are Rain Or Shine and Talk ‘N’ Text. The Painters have won their last six outings and the Texters, their last four and seven of their last eight. The Rain Or Shine game against Ginebra today will be a war for sure as a lot is at stake for the Painters. Win or lose, Ginebra is assured of a twice-to-beat advantage at either No. 5 or No. 6.