Will Algieri outsmart Pacquiao?

MANILA, Philippines - Chris Algieri has a Master’s degree in Health Care Science from the New York Institute of Technology and boasts that his brains will take him to victory over WBO welterweight champion Manny Pacquiao in Macau this morning.

Pacquiao, however, isn’t awed by Algieri’s educational background. “So what if Algieri has a Master’s degree?” he said. “I have Master’s degree in boxing. I’ve been fighting since 1995. I’ve done over 60 fights. My experience speaks for itself. I also have a doctorate (in human kinetics, honoris causa) from Southwestern University in Cebu.” Besides, Pacquiao is a Congressman, serving his constituents in Sarangani – a noble calling that’s unfamiliar to Algieri.

Algieri, 30, makes no bones about turning the fight into a tactical chess match. Obviously, his track record as a knockout puncher is unremarkable. He has scored only eight KOs in a 20-0 record and four of his stoppage victims checked in with losing slates. Algieri has figured in only one 12-rounder and four 10-rounders. A fighter whom Algieri once outpointed was Jason Jordan who reported for duty with a dismal 6-27-4 mark. It’s no wonder why Algieri plans to box, not punch, and run, not engage.

“My style is based on out-thinking my opponent but I also feel that I miss certain opportunities by over-thinking,” said Algieri, qyoted by Paul Wheeler in Boxing News. “Mentally, sticking to a specific game plan is very difficult. My brain is my best and worst attribute.”

Algieri proved that brains can overcome brawn in outworking Russian Ruslan Provodnikov to win eight of the last 11 rounds on two judges’ scorecards in their New York tiff last June. Provodnikov floored Algieri twice in the first round and shut his right eye but couldn’t adjust in finishing off the slick stylist. Algieri knew he was no match for Provodnikov’s power so he avoided close-range exchanges, threw long jabs and fought smartly. Provodnikov tried to cut the ring off on Algieri but wasn’t fast enough to stop him in his tracks. Algieri’s display of guts, smarts and skill was enough to convince two of the three judges that he deserved the decision.

Pacquiao’s conditioning coach Justin Fortune said Provodnikov made Algieri look better than what he really is. “Provodnikov stood in front of Algieri,” he said. “He was in great shape for the fight but that’s not how you fight Algieri. Is Algieri’s speed a concern? We’ll soon find out. Manny’s quick, too. I don’t think Algieri’s quicker. Once Manny starts hitting Algieri, I’d like to see how quick Algieri runs.”

With Algieri’s courageous stand, Fortune said he can understand why the split decision went his way. “I thought Algieri beat Provodnikov on balls and ring generalship,” he said. “After all, he survived two knockdowns in the first round and a swollen right eye to go the distance.” Algieri earned $100,000 for battling Provodnikov and it led to a ticket to challenge Pacquiao with a guaranteed purse of at least $1 Million. Before the Provodnikov bout, Algieri only pocketed $15,000 for outpointing Emmanuel Taylor in Huntington, New York, last February. Algieri has never fought outside of New York so the Macau adventure will be a totally new experience.

Fortune said he’s not in the habit of predicting the outcome of a fight but in this case, he guarantees a win. “I won’t predict how he’ll win,” he said. “Manny’s a machine and he’ll come to the fight ready to go 12 rounds if necessary. He’s been absolutely phenomenal in the gym, working harder than ever. When Algieri gets hit and feels Manny’s power, you know he’s going to run. Manny’s got to be in shape to chase him down.”

The pressure to win will be less on Algieri than Pacquiao. For the unbeaten challenger, he’s got nothing to lose except a perfect record. For Pacquiao, a loss may seriously derail his plans for an immediate ultimate showdown with Floyd Mayweather Jr. “You watch a guy like that for a decade,” said Algieri quoted by Tim Smith in The Ring Magazine. “I was a kid in high school watching those fights. You’re never around the guy. You never met the guy. And now, you’re fighting the guy. For me to be around and see that he’s flesh and blood, he’s got two hands, two feet, he’s got a head…that helped quite a bit in terms of helping me grasp everything.”

Don Stradley, also writing in The Ring Magazine, said five things must happen for Algieri to score an upset – Pacquiao underestimates him, Pacquiao shows his age, Algieri picks up the pace, Algieri uses size advantages and Algieri isn’t intimidated. “It may seem overly optimistic to entertain the possibility of an upset but isn’t that why so many of us tune into these events?” said Stradley. “If boxing has taught us anything throughout its colorful history, it’s to never entirely dismiss a fighter’s chances, even if he’s a 30-year-old reformed kickboxer with fewer KOs on his resume (eight) than Pacquiao has recorded songs in Tagalog (16).”