Rematch to make history

Rain Or Shine coach Yeng Guiao isn’t concerned about San Mig Coffee’s quest for the franchise’s first-ever Grand Slam, a rare feat that will be the Mixers’ prize if they beat the Elasto Painters in their best-of-five duel for the PBA Governors Cup title starting at the Mall of Asia Arena tonight.

 With all due respect to the Mixers, Guiao said the Finals isn’t about San Mig Coffee’s drive for a Grand Slam. It’s about Rain Or Shine’s date with destiny. In Guiao’s mind, if history is to be made in the Finals, it will be the Painters doing the writing, not the Mixers. He’d rather be branded as the undisputed underdog in the series rather than a party pooper. The perspective is significant because the Painters don’t want to be known as the team that will rain on San Mig Coffee’s parade. The Painters want to establish their own identity in claiming supremacy regardless of the opponent.

For Guiao, matching wits against Mixers coach Tim Cone is nothing new. In the last Philippine Cup Finals, they were on opposite sides. Guiao drew first blood in the series, piloting the Painters to an 83-80 win in Game 1. Then, the Mixers roared back to win three in a row, 80-70, 77-76 and 93-90, pushing Rain Or Shine’s back against the wall. Guiao survived the do-or-die Game 5, 81-74, but San Mig Coffee closed it out, 93-87, in Game 6.

Guiao won’t ever forget the pain of losing three straight to San Mig Coffee particularly as the last two could’ve gone either way. He waited for a chance to pay back the Mixers and now, with old reliable Arizona Reid in harness, the time has come. If Guiao manages to bag the crown, it won’t just be payback – it will be redemption.

Cone, 56, and Guiao, 55, are two of the league’s three active coaching legends. Cone began his coaching career with Alaska in 1989 and Guiao with Swift in 1990. The other legend is Talk ‘N’ Text’s Norman Black who started his own career in 1987. Like Cone, Black is 56. Cone has coached in the PBA for 26 straight years, winning a record 17 titles including a Grand Slam in 1996. Guiao had a few interruptions in his career with Swift, Pepsi/Mobiline, Red Bull, Burger King and now, Rain Or Shine to serve as PBL Commissioner and in public office. Overall, Guiao has bagged six championships, two with Swift, three with Red Bull and one with Rain Or Shine. Both Cone and Guiao have been national team coaches. Cone took the Centennial team to third place at the Asian Games in 1998 while Guiao piloted the national squad to the quarterfinals of the 2009 FIBA Asia Championships in Tianjin.

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Rain Or Shine and San Mig Coffee went through exhausting semifinal series to reach the Finals. Both teams were stretched to the limit so neither has an advantage entering the Last Dance except that the Mixers finished their tie a day earlier.

When they clashed in the eliminations, the outcome was inconsequential. Both teams had already clinched playoff slots. But for the record, Rain Or Shine won, 95-94, as Reid erupted for 39 points and Cone didn’t push his starters to the max. Marqus Blakely logged only 25 minutes, 14 below his average, while James Yap played in only 16 minutes, P. J. Simon 18 and Joe De Vance 17. Instead, Cone gave lots of time to Ian Sangalang with 30 minutes and Justin Melton with 23. What was striking in the game was San Mig Coffee’s dominance off the boards, 60-41, and Rain Or Shine’s efficiency reflected in an assist-to-turnover ratio of 23:10 compared to the Mixers 14:16.

Because the conference is a sprint, expect the players from both teams to be nearly burned out. That means rotating players is critical to make sure of fresh legs on the floor at any instance. Bench production is crucial for continuity. Rebounding is another key element because the team that controls the boards is able to dictate the tempo. Rain Or Shine likes to run while San Mig Coffee prefers to play a deliberate style.

How the coaches will match up their players is interesting to speculate. Reid and Blakely play multiple positions but they may not be matched up until the fourth quarter with the game on the line. Reid is a more explosive scorer, averaging 29.4 points to Blakely’s 19.9. Blakely, however, is tougher on defense and more of a scrapper. It’s not surprising that both fit their team’s sytles. The Painters are No. 1 in the league in offense as the only team averaging in triple digits at 102.7. Rain Or Shine is also No. 1 in field goal percentage, assists and fastbreak points.

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San Mig Coffee, on the other hand, is No. 3 in points allowed, No. 2 in field goal percentage allowed, No. 1 in steals, No. 1 in blocked shots and No. 1 in turnover points. The numbers show that while Rain Or Shine is offense-oriented, San Mig Coffee is defense-minded. Because of their defensive orientation, the Mixers dominate the hustle stats. It’s not to say that Rain Or Shine doesn’t hustle or work as hard. The stats indicate only a conference-long trend which may not hold in a mano-a-mano duel.

Rain Or Shine’s edge is every player in the roster is ready to go. It’s what Guiao prepared his troops for. Every Painter has started in at least one game. Only seven players have started for Cone. In a war of attrition, a deep bench is a huge weapon. Cone’s advantage is championship experience, the poise that Marc Barroca exemplified in delivering 14 of his 17 points in the fourth period of the Mixers’ 93-87 win over Talk ‘N’ Text in Game 5 of their semifinal series. James Yap has reserved his best for last and is coming off back-to-back games of at least 23 points each. Joe De Vance is a matchup nightmare at the three-spot and has been transformed into a more deadly post-up scorer in the triangle. Marc Pingris’ infectious intensity on both ends is a driving force for the Mixers.

Matchups will be constantly adjusted every quarter of every game. Gabe Norwood could go up against Yap or Blakely or Barroca or P. J. Simon. That’s how versatile he is as a defender. It’s the same way with Pingris who can defend any position. Paul Lee and Jeff Chan will play key roles. They’re averaging a combined 25.7 points in the conference.

It’s not likely the Finals will end early. This could be a drag-out, tactical series to extend to a Game 5. If San Mig Coffee ends up with the Grand Slam, the Mixers will have earned it the hard way. And if Rain Or Shine writes its own history, the Painters will have shown incredible fortitude. The league’s last conference is a fitting climax to an unbelievable season.