Now or never

For Rain Or Shine coach Yeng Guiao, losing four in a row to San Mig Coffee in the PBA Philippine Cup finals has to be a long shot. The Painters never dropped three straight all conference long until the finals came along and two of the three setbacks could’ve easily gone the other way.

But probabilities go out the window when it’s a do-or-die situation. The Painters are in a deep, deep hole and one more loss to the Mixers will mean funeral rites. Their backs are against the wall. Nobody expected Rain Or Shine to be in this predicament. In the eliminations, the worst losing streak the Painters endured was back-to-back losses to Globalport by two and Talk ‘N’ Text by three. Bridging the eliminations and playoffs, Rain Or Shine even strung up 10 victories in a row and entered the finals having won 12 of its last 13. Did the Painters peak too soon?

After taking Game 1 of the finals by three, Rain Or Shine has skidded to yield Game 2 by 10, Game 3 by one and Game 4 by three. San Mig Coffee is now a win away from installing Tim Cone as the winningest coach in PBA history with his 16th title in the horizon. That’s a thrice-to-beat advantage for the Mixers. The Painters must beat the Mixers three straight to bring Guiao his first All-Filipino crown after six import-laced titles.

Experience can’t be the only reason why San Mig Coffee has surged ahead in the title series. It’s true that Rafi Reavis, Yancy de Ocampo, Marc Pingris, James Yap, P. J. Simon and Joe de Vance have played in at least five previous finals. And no Painter had appeared in at least two before this series. But in Game 4 last Friday, the killer blows came from rookie Ian Sangalang, sophomore Alex Mallari and junior Mark Barroca, not veterans like Yap, Simon and Reavis. In fact, Pingris wasn’t available from when he took a poke in the right eye from J. R. Quinahan with 4:53 left in the third period. Winning a cliffhanger without Pingris on the floor proved the Mixers’ resiliency and re-established their character as warriors who cover for each other.

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Throughout Game 4, Guiao and Cone matched wits in making adjustments and counter-adjustments. Guiao brought in Beau Belga and Quinahan together to police the lane and put physical pressure on San Mig Coffee’s post players. Gabe Norwood checked in to neutralize the Speaker’s advantage at the post. With De Vance covered by Norwood, Cone went to Reavis to bring up the ball because his defender wouldn’t pick him up high. Towards the end of the first quarter, Cone sent in his shock troopers Justin Melton, Barroca and Mallari to wreak havoc on Rain Or Shine’s rhythm. San Mig Coffee’s second unit kept Yap and Simon on the bench in the second period as the relievers out-energized the Painters in lifting the Mixers to a 10-point halftime lead.

Down the stretch, Guiao sat down Belga because he was more comfortable playing Raymond Almazan on Sangalang then put in Jervy Cruz with Quinahan for the finishing kick. Belga cooled his heels in the final minutes. Cone ended with Sangalang, De Vance, Barroca, Yap and Simon while Guiao had Paul Lee, Jeff Chan, Cruz, Norwood and Quinahan on the floor.

For the first time in the finals, San Mig Coffee’s bench was more productive, 44-36, as Barroca and Sangalang delivered 17 points apiece. Chan was a missing link in offense for Rain Or Shine as he went 0-of-6 from beyond the arc, pulling his series three-point shooting percentage down to .291. Lee put the Painters on his back and erupted for 28 points but couldn’t do it by himself. The Mixers wound up with more assists, 20-17, and the generosity was reflected in their field goal percentage.

Once more, defense made the difference. In every game of the finals so far, the team with the higher field goal percentage has won. Conversely, the team with the lower field goal percentage has lost, meaning the other team played tougher defense. In Game 1, Rain Or Shine beat San Mig Coffee, 83-80, by hitting 43.6 percent from the field and limiting the Mixers to 41 percent. In Game 2, the tables were turned as the Mixers shot 41.5 percent and the Painters, 37.2 percent. In Game 3, San Mig Coffee shot 45.7 percent to Rain Or Shine’s 40.5 percent. And in Game 4, it was 53.2 percent for the Mixers and 42 percent for the Painters.

Sangalang, who turned only 22 last Dec. 20, has been a revelation in the finals, upping his scoring clip from 8.5 before the Last Dance to 10.25. The 6-5 5/8 forward is blessed with amazing length and it’s difficult to block his shot from close range when he raises both arms over his head to shoot or throw up a jump hook. He’s quick in the pick-and-roll and it’s difficult for Belga or Quinahan to chase him down when attacking from mid-range. Sangalang moves well without the ball and gets himself open for easy passes from the post player in the triangle.

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De Vance isn’t the only player Cone can use to create a mismatch although Sangalang isn’t frighteningly tough at the post because he’s not as physical as the Speaker. Guiao has found an antidote to De Vance in Norwood but still hasn’t unveiled a neutralizer for Sangalang whose scoring has improved from two in Game 1 to 10 in Game 2 to 12 in Game 3 to 17 in Game 4.

Rain Or Shine had a golden chance to take Game 4 and was up, 78-73, early in the fourth. Then, the Mixers ignited a blistering 9-0 bomb and never looked back again. De Vance played a key role in the surge, contributing eight of his 12 points in the payoff period. De Vance is an expert in recognizing and creating mismatches. Because of his size and ability to play multiple positions, he likes to post up smaller defenders like Chan or anyone caught in a switch.

San Mig Coffee is doubly dangerous when the game is played at a slow and deliberate pace. That’s when the Mixers execute the triangle to precision. But Cone isn’t averse to pushing tempo particularly with Barroca, Melton and Mallari in the mix when the Painters go through their rotations. It’s all about timing or knowing when to pull the trigger.

On paper, Rain Or Shine’s bench is supposed to be more productive than San Mig Coffee’s. Guiao has said in a long series, the Painters are at an advantage because of their deep rotation. But Cone is showing that in the finals, you don’t need to go 14 deep because your nucleus is ready to go at a moment’s notice. In Game 4, Cone rotated 10 players, nine logging at least 21 minutes. Guiao checked in 14 but only six played at least 23 minutes – he’s giving away minutes to less productive players.

In Game 5 tonight, San Mig Coffee takes the first of three cracks at clinching. Guiao isn’t thinking Game 6 or Game 7. He’s thinking Game 5 and only Game 5. The Painters are looking to survive. They’re not about to give up. They’re out to show what they’re made of.