Bursting at the seams

Early yesterday morning, the word was standing-room-only tickets were left for the selling in the mad rush to gain entry for Game 7 of the PBA Philippine Cup semifinals between Barangay Ginebra and San Mig Coffee at the Araneta Coliseum tonight. It’s do-or-die for both teams with the winner advancing to face Rain Or Shine in the best-of-seven finals starting Friday, also at the Big Dome.

It’s likely that security will be reinforced thrice over to make sure nobody gets trampled in the queue to pass the turnstiles. San Mig Coffee and Ginebra are two of the league’s most popular teams with legions of faithful fans. Just check the comments in social media to find out how fiercely loyal the fans of both clubs are. That’s why the players always give it their all on the court – they owe it to the fans.

For some strange reason, Game 6 drew “only” 14,473 fans. That was a potential clincher for San Mig Coffee and a must-win for Ginebra. Maybe, the crowd dwindled because it was on a Monday, not a usual PBA day, and the start of the work week. Game 1 brought in 11,170 at the Mall of Asia Arena on a Tuesday, Game 2 19,279 on a Friday, Game 3 19,353 on a Sunday, Game 4 12,433 on a Wednesday and Game 5 20,026 on a Saturday. 

But in Game 7, I’ll be shocked if the crowd is less than 20,000. So far, the PBA has registered four over 20,000 crowds this season, an indication that things are rocking in the pro league. The record is 23,436 for Game 3 of the Commissioner’s Cup finals between Alaska and Ginebra last season. It’s highly possible that record will be broken tonight.

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Every game in the series has been close except for the second encounter which Ginebra took, 93-64. San Mig won Game 1 by two, Game 3 by eight and Game 5 by three. Ginebra won Game 2 by 29, Game 4 by three and Game 6 by three. The odd-number games all went to the Mixers while Ginebra swept the even-number games. If the trend holds, San Mig will win Game 7. But Ginebra is a team that makes it a habit to defy odds, trends and probabilities. You can never be sure of the outcome when Ginebra is in the equation because of its fan following. The crowd is a huge morale booster. San Mig, however, has its fair share of the audience and the Mixers won’t back down either.

There is no clear indication that if a team is ahead entering the fourth period, it’s bound to win. The Mixers were down by eight at the start of the fourth quarter in Game 1 and still won. It was the same with Ginebra which trailed by one to open the fourth and took Game 6. The four other games were won by the team that led to begin the fourth so the chances are 67-33 for this indicator. 

In five of the six games, the team with more rebounds and bench points won. Only Game 5 went off track as Ginebra collared more boards, 52-40, and scored more bench points, 36-30, but lost. In Game 6, the stats were back on trend as Ginebra won with more rebounds, 45-38 and more bench points, 41-33. Ginebra coach Ato Agustin basically rotated eight players, each logging at least 20 minutes, compared to six from Mixers coach Tim Cone’s cast. That extension from the bench proved crucial down the stretch.

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Mark Caguioa’s return to form was huge for Ginebra in Game 6. He erupted for 21 points, eight more than what the Spark contributed in the last two outings. L.A. Tenorio redeemed himself from his Game 5 retreat and delivered 16 points, three rebounds and three assists. Japeth Aguilar also came through with 13 points off the bench after failing to hit double figures in Games 2, 4 and 5. X-factor Mac Baracael’s hot three-point shooting was a backbreaker as he knocked down 3-of-4 triples.

For San Mig, Marc Pingris was a pillar of strength in Game 6, almost singlehandedly towing the Mixers to a rousing finish. He had 20 points, six rebounds and five assists in 41 solid minutes. As usual, his tenacity on defense and off the boards was a rallying point for San Mig. The missing link was Joe De Vance who went 1-of-4 from the floor in 15 minutes. In the three San Mig wins, the Speaker averaged 11.7 and in the three losses, his clip dropped to 6. De Vance’s ability to match up against Aguilar is critical for the Mixers and Cone will no doubt need his contribution on both ends in Game 7.

For sure, Game 7 will be an extremely emotional battle. The players will be pumped up. The referees must take control from the onset because any slight spark could trigger a conflagration. Ginebra was at death’s door in Game 6 and survived behind a gritty stand in the closing minutes. The crowd had a lot to do with Ginebra staying alive in the series. Now, Ginebra needs one more push to make it over the hump. The Mixers realize they’re up against a never-say-die team and must break Game 7 open early so the crowd won’t be a factor in the homestretch.