All bets off in Game 6

MANILA, Philippines - Despite a twice-to-beat advantage, San Mig Coffee enters Game 6 at the Smart Araneta Coliseum tonight unsure of what Barangay Ginebra San Miguel will bring to the table as their PBA Philippine Cup best-of-seven semifinal duel comes close to a climax. If the Mixers win, they go straight to the finals against Rain Or Shine but if they lose, Game 7 will be played at the Big Dome on Wednesday.

There is no statistical trend to indicate which team is likely to take Game 6. From Games 1 to 4, the team that had more rebounds and bench points won. But in Game 5 last Saturday, those indicators went out the window as San Mig Coffee prevailed, 79-76, even as Ginebra compiled more boards, 52-40, and bench points, 36-30. So soothsayers are at a loss as to the basis for a prediction.

In five games so far, San Mig Coffee has averaged 81.4 points and Ginebra, 85.2. The margin of difference is insignificant. Ginebra enjoyed a blowout in Game 2, 93-64, but the other four encounters were settled by six or less. Defense is clearly the difference maker. In two wins, Ginebra held the Mixers to an average of 73. And in Game 5, San Mig escaped by holding Ginebra down to a field goal percentage of .358, the Barangay’s lowest in the series.

Game 5 could’ve gone either way. Both teams exchanged lucky breaks throughout the thriller. L. A. Tenorio was called for stepping out of bounds but a TV replay showed he was in fair territory. Mac Baracael was tagged with a regular foul when it looked like he got away with a clothesline. Joe De Vance wasn’t whistled for warding off in a drive to the basket and Japeth Aguilar did the same without a call. It came down to execution in the last two minutes and Mixers coach Tim Cone gambled on James Yap to hit a three to seal it. With seven ticks to go and no timeouts left, Ginebra had a chance to tie it on a triple but Tenorio went in for a layup that was blocked anyway.

The only sure thing about Game 6 is the Big Dome will be filled to the rafters. Game 1 drew 11,170, Game 2 19,279, Game 3 19,353, Game 4 12,433 and Game 5 20,026. Smart Araneta Coliseum hosted Games 2 to 5 while the opener was at the Mall of Asia Arena.

Down to basics, the duel is a bare-bones matchup between Ginebra’s athleticism and Cone’s coaching. No team in the league is as athletic as Ginebra with the likes of Aguilar, Chris Ellis, Tenorio, Mac Baracael and Emman Monfort in the lineup. San Mig’s advantage, however, is Cone’s ability to make adjustments and find ways to seize momentum during a game. That was so evident in Game 5 when Ellis sparked a late Ginebra run with a rim-rattler and Cone countered with a well-laid-out plan that led to Yap’s killer triple.

It was nip-and-tuck from the onset last Saturday. Tenorio got off to a hot start, firing seven points in the first quarter. Realizing Tenorio’s crucial role, Cone made sure he was muzzled the rest of the way, throwing Mark Barroca and even Marc Pingris on defense to contain the “Teniente.” Tenorio didn’t score again until the fourth quarter.

Pingris’ hustle was contagious and it rubbed off on the other Mixers. He defended Greg Slaughter, Aguilar and Tenorio – it didn’t matter how small or big. Pingris logged 39 minutes and finished with 12 points, five rebounds, two steals and two blocked shots. Defense wrote the story as the Mixers forced 24 turnovers and scored 27 off the miscues. Ginebra had more field attempts, 81-63, because of a 12-rebound edge but the Mixers shot .476 from the floor to negate the advantage.

  Aguilar has struggled throughout the series. Once the conference’s leading scorer, his average has dropped by 10 points over the last five games, mainly due to De Vance’s defense. Aguilar scored in double figures in 16 of his first 17 games this conference but was limited to single digits in three of the five games against San Mig Coffee so far. Aguilar shot 3-of-10 from the field in Game 5 but coach Ato Agustin’s consolation was he didn’t settle for jumpers down the stretch and aggressively attacked the basket. If Ginebra hopes to win tonight, Aguilar, Tenorio and Slaughter must play their A-game.

Tenorio declined to be interviewed yesterday. He appealed to media to hold off until the end of Game 6. “After ako makabawi, that’s the time I’ll do interviews na lang para mas OK,” he said. “Ayoko muna sana magpa-interview until tomorrow.” It’s understandable why Tenorio wants to isolate himself.

Ginebra’s back is against the wall. Agustin must win twice in a row to make it to the finals while Cone only has to win once in two tries. In PBA history, 12 of 13 teams that won Game 5 from a 2-2 tie in a best-of-seven semifinals wound up clinching so that’s a 92 percent chance. But if there’s a team that has the spirit to recover from 2-3 deficit in a best-of-seven, it’s never-say-die Ginebra. The Big Dome will be rockin’ tonight.