Pacquiao vs Bradley, seriously

Okay, so Manny Pacquiao and Timothy Bradley will fight again for Bradley’s WBO welterweight belt. For real.

There really is no other choice on the horizon for Pacquiao, whose clock is ticking, or for Bradley, who needs the respect. No opponent will give Pacquiao redemption or the ammunition to lure other big-name fighters into the ring with him. No other opponent will give Bradley the street credentials he has been sorely lacking as a world champion.

The fact is that Pacquiao was a victim of his own success. He decimated all the lower weight divisions to the point that fighting other challengers would not have generated much buzz and would probably have been mismatches. This led to all those catchweight fights of the last few years, and the repeated battles with Juan Manuel Marquez. Alone on the mountaintop, Pacquiao was almost unassailable until Bradley came along.

Very few boxing observers worth their salt would believe

 that Bradley beat Pacquiao the first time. That is very clear. But the only aspect of boxing that is forgiving is the rematch, where you are washed of past mistakes and given an equal shot at winning again. This actually is a very important fight for both boxers underneath the surface. Why? Despite having beaten Ruslan Provodnikov and Juan Manuel Marquez in succession after Pacquiao, a cloud still hangs above Bradley’s victory over Pacquiao. For some, the win was simply bait for a rematch, so Pacquiao would, in turn, have a reason to fight Bradley again, win his belt back, and have something with which to extend the series against Marquez, as this writer said two years ago.

What’s in it for Bradley? It all boils down to confirmation, that he can (and did) beat Pacquiao for real in 2012, that there was nothing screwy about the judging. Bradley decided to stick and move against the Filipino champion, and apparently it paid off. But fans are never thrilled about a long-distance strategy. Because he has had problems trying to brawl, Bradley will likely choose to stick and move against Pacquiao again. It is the apprehension regarding that which may determine if this fight becomes a blockbuster or a bomb. Fans don’t want to see Pacquiao running after the smaller champion all over the ring for twelve rounds; they want to see someone get knocked out, and in this setting, that would most probably be Bradley. Only Pacquiao has the power to deliver a KO.

Should Bradley lose, he will be relegated to the second tier of contenders, and will join the merry-go-round once again. He will become the answer to a trivia question, a footnote, a blip on the radar of Pacquiao’s career. It may sound harsh, but that is likely what will happen if he loses. If he wins, he must win sensationally, bravely, fearlessly. No running. But that, as previously mentioned, is not going to happen. Bradley has never been known to have a strong chin. Strategically, he will do what he needs to do to win, and that includes being selective about his attacks. Whether or not it works, it will not be a popular style.

What about Pacquiao? If Manny wins unconvincingly – meaning by decision – it will not restore that much of the luster he lost when he was knocked out by Marquez in 2012. The general impression is that Bradley was merely a custodian of Pacquiao’s belt, a placeholder, since he didn’t need one to draw any of the big names into fighting him. Now, things are different. His invincibility, so evident for six years since he was still fighting Erik Morales, has been tainted. Not only dd he lose two fights in a row, he was knocked out. It became more about Pacquiao’s failure than Juan Manuel Marquez’s win or his tremendous gifts as a boxer. There is no motivation for Marquez to fight Pacquiao again, except one: he has not beaten Pacquiao in a world title fight. It may sound like splitting hairs, but Marquez is really the only exciting opponent left for Pacquiao outside of the tongue-wagging and elusive Floyd Mayweather Jr.

If Pacquiao loses, it will completely shut the door on a possible fight with Mayweather. His reputation will take such a big hit that Mayweather can brag about being in a higher class, and he will have a point. Pacquiao has to win and win big if he intends to at least keep the discussion alive. Mayweather has totally ignored Pacquiao’s proposal to fight and donate all their purse money to charity. Mayweather has been anything but honorable in his treatment of Pacquiao, and regularly shows disdain for the public’s perception of him. He doesn’t respect the fans. Luckily, he’s a great boxer, so fans can overlook what kind of person he is.

Of course, conversation has revolved around the purse and voluntary drug testing. Fine. Pacquiao is definitely the bigger draw still, but Bradley has more to lose, not in terms of scale, but in personal accomplishment. If Pacquiao really wants to take Bradley away from his game, he can even dictate that they use a smaller ring and lighter gloves. This will give Bradley limited movement, and make him easier to nail. Pacquiao has the clout to do that, though it hasn’t really been done for a while.

Some boxing analysts believe this could be the penultimate fight for Pacquiao, to be followed only by a showdown with Mayweather should he beat Bradley soundly on April 12. I disagree. I firmly believe that Mayweather (if it ever happens) would have an option for a rematch if they make a ridiculous amount of money. But given Pacquiao’s transition into politics, he will be fighting at least until right before the 2016 elections, to be on the safe side. As this writer once confirmed with the Commission on Elections (Comelec) promotions of Pacquiao’s fights are exempted from campaign bans because they are “of national interest”. Pacquiao’s handlers will definitely use that serious advantage to the hilt, so expect any farewell appearance to take place by 2016. 

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Tanghalang Ateneo presents “Break Away Antigone”, the new musical by Floy Quintos based on the Greek classic beginning Feb. 6 at the Rizal Mini Theatre on the Ateneo de Manila campus. Tickets are available at the gate.