Trends set tone for FIBA World Cup

FIBA consultant Peter Lonergan said recently that teams participating in the World Cup in Spain on Aug. 30-Sept. 14 next year must be prepared to cope with the emerging trends in the international game and the Philippines, one of three countries representing the Asian zone, will witness referees blowing their whistles to “tidy” the competition and the shift of focus to skilled players with “sound creativity.”

Lonergan was tapped by FIBA to track trends in the evolution of the game and carefully observed the competition at the World University Games in Moscow last July. Russia beat Australia, 81-74, in the basketball finals. The Philippines finished in the cellar of the 24-team tournament, losing five games in the preliminaries by an average margin of 51.2 points. The worst defeat was dealt by Serbia in a 125-44 rout. The Philippines was represented by the University of the Visayas varsity. Neither the POC nor the SBP sanctioned the country’s participation in the Universiade.

Lonergan said he noticed that countries are now putting a lot of importance in the Universiade as the training grounds for the Olympics and World Cup. Because of politics, the POC and the SBP stay away from the Universiade where the Federation of School Sports Association of the Philippines is recognized as the sanctioning body.

Lonergan shared his views with La Salle head coach Juno Sauler and assistant coaches Allan Caidic and Jun Limpot in a talk during the five-day seminar arranged by Basketball New South Wales and the New South Wales Institute of Sport for the visiting Green Archers staff at the Sydney Olympic Park in Australia.

In the coming World Cup, Lonergan said he expects the offense to be “more open” with the referees making a deliberate effort to tone down the physicality of the game. “More fouls will be called which means scores will go up as the skilled players are given the chance to showcase their talent in being creative,” he said. “There will be increased tempo. Defense won’t be allowed to slow things down, the pace will be dictated by the offense. We’ll see quick isolations, early offensive sets to spread the game, identify mismatches and take advantage. The attack mode will be push it, spread it and go to the mismatch. We’ll see early ball screens, players on the move, drive and kick to stretch the ball in transition. It will be the concept of forwards out with the post players starting the offense in the perimeter and setting screens to post. We’ll see more strategy in defending ball screens, possibly the triangle and two as teams will shrink the floor. Dribble penetration is hard to defend and we expect teams to pack it in behind with bigs lifting to defend the three. Bigs will look to screen not attack as the trend is to go with the skilled players for points.”

The draw for the World Cup is scheduled on Feb. 3. So far, 20 teams have qualified for the tournament – FIBA world ranking No. 1 USA as the Olympic champion, No. 2 Spain as host, No. 3 Argentina, No. 4 France, No. 8 France, No. 9 Australia, No. 11 Serbia, No. 13 Slovenia, No. 15 Angola, No. 16 Croatia, No. 17 Puerto Rico, No. 19 New Zealand, No. 20 Iran, No. 24 Mexico, No. 26 Dominican Republic, No. 31 Korea, No. 34 Philippines, No. 41 Senegal, No. 45 Ukraine and No. 46 Egypt.

FIBA will choose four wildcards to join the competition. Last Oct. 31, FIBA disclosed the 15 candidates for the wildcard slots – No. 5 Greece, No. 6 Russia, No. 7 Turkey, No. 10 Brazil, No. 12 China, No. 14 Germany, No. 18 Nigeria, No. 21 Italy, No. 25 Canada, No. 28 Venezuela, No. 37 Israel, No. 39 Finland, No. 40 Poland and No. 42 Qatar. To be listed as a candidate, a country must pay a fee of 500,000 Euros to FIBA.

Of the four wildcards, only up to three can come from a common zone. There are nine candidates from Europe, three from the Americas, two from Asia and one from Africa. Among the 20 qualifiers, only Senegal, Ukraine and Egypt are ranked lower than the Philippines in FIBA’s latest ladder.

Lonergan said the trends in offensive sets include less horns action, more pindowns and turnouts, extensive use of cutting angles, live ball screens, movement by players off the ball on dribble penetration to establish floor spots and secondary dribble-drives to open up threes. He said the defensive trends include switching on the pick-and-roll, shrinking the floor, trapping to disrupt and create shot clock pressure and taking away clear air to limit wide open shots. Lonergan mentioned that while the corner three is popular in the NBA with a 42 percent accuracy last season, the elbow triple is a more potent weapon because on a miss, the weak side is clear for an offensive rebound and the shooter can easily go back in transition if there is a leak.

“Basketball has become a game of skill and flow,” he said. “In the pick-and-roll, you’ll see a lot of middle, sideline and late-clock action. In the NBA, players are switching 30 percent more than before in defending the pick-and-roll. You’ll see teams denying the ball screen using a zone behind it, forcing baseline and drawing help. Bobby Knight’s philosophy of better help early than late because you can recover early is not relevant anymore.”

Lonergan described the emerging international player as someone with a lean body type, agility, speed, balance and core stability, the ability to score in the lane from all floor spots, to pass on the move, defend multiple positions and rebound. “Chris Paul is the best point guard in the world today and you’ll notice how he is able to score in the lane with runners and floaters over big guys,” he said. “Tony Parker, Steve Nash, Rudy Fernandez and Ricky Rubio would be in that mold. I wouldn’t know if Paul is better than Isiah Thomas or Mark Price or John Stockton. The game is just so different now. Players need to do more to be effective.”