Miami to clinch on the road?

Miami is a win away from barging into its fourth NBA Finals in franchise history and to clinch, the Heat must beat Indiana in Game 6 of their best-of-seven Eastern Conference title series on the road this morning (Manila time).

In two previous playoff series, Miami closed out once away from home – against Atlanta in a 4-0 sweep. The Heat took five games to dispose of Chicago and ended it in Game 5 at home. So far, the team has compiled an 11-3 record in the playoffs, 5-1 on the road with the only setback a 99-92 loss to Indiana in Game 4. In contrast, the Pacers are 10-7 overall, 7-1 at home and 3-6 on the road.

Indiana is determined to defend its homecourt in Game 6 and avoid elimination. The Pacers’ only home playoff loss was to Miami on a 114-96 blowout in Game 3. They were unbeaten at home in the Atlanta and New York series. With the NBA’s best record in the regular season, Miami gained the homecourt advantage throughout the playoffs. Indiana had the homecourt advantage in the Atlanta series but not against New York. The Pacers beat the Knicks once at Madison Square Garden, 105-79 in Game 2 and that was enough cushion to close out the series in six.

Miami sensed the urgency to win in Game 5 of the Indiana series last Thursday night (Friday morning, Manila time) as a loss would’ve opened the door for the Pacers to clinch in Game 6 at home. Indiana held a 44-40 lead at the half then LeBron James took over in the third period, firing 16 points and outscoring the entire Pacers squad which produced only 13 in the quarter. Udonis Haslem contributed 10 points, Mario Chalmers three and Dwyane Wade one to round out the Heat’s 30-point explosion in the pivotal period which Miami finished with a 12-1 surge.

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While the King dominated on offense, Miami’s collective effort in defense doused the Pacers’ hopes of stealing another on the road. Haslem fronted Roy Hibbert to discourage the entry pass and when the 7-2 center got it at the post, he was quickly doubled. Because Hibbert isn’t a deft passer, the Heat had no difficulty wreaking havoc on Indiana’s execution. Hibbert scored only four points, including two free throws, in the turn-around third quarter. Coach Erik Spoelstra cross-matched James on Lance Stephenson, who erupted for 20 points in Game 4, and the switch worked wonders. Stephenson finished with only two garbage field goals before fouling out in the fourth period. Hibbert wound up with 22 and Paul George 27 but Miami’s concern was more to bottle up the supporting cast. Stephenson and George Hill combined for 39 points in Game 4. They were held to a total of five in Game 5.

Miami’s efficiency was evident with an assist-to-turnover ratio of 19:10 compared to the Pacers’ 11:18. In the three games that the Heat has won so far in the series, Miami has compiled more assists – 24-18 in Game 1, 21-16 in Game 3 and 19-11 in Game 5. In the games the Heat has lost, Indiana collected more assists, 18-14 in Game 2 and 18-15 in Game 4 and the result was a higher field goal percentage, 50 percent to 46.6 percent in Game 2 and 50 percent to 39 percent in Game 4.

When Miami makes the extra pass, doesn’t settle for low percentage outside shots and James isn’t a one-man show, the Heat is hard to beat. In the two games that the Heat lost, they took too many triples and died from the arc – 7-of-22 in Game 2 and 8-of-23 in Game 4. In the three games they won, Miami shot 5-of-18 triples in Game 1, 6-of-14 in Game 3 and 7-of-18 in Game 5. Taking three-point shots in moderation is a lesson learned.

Although James carried the scoring load in the third period of Game 5, he didn’t contribute a single point when Miami ignited a 15-8 bomb early in the fourth to stretch a 70-62 lead to 85-70, time down to 5:32. The players who scored for Miami during the blast were Ray Allen, Norris Cole, Wade and Chris Andersen. That display of balanced offense had to be music to Spoelstra’s ears. When James tries too hard to play hero, the Heat becomes predictable on offense and that’s dangerous against a team that led the NBA in giving up the lowest field goal percentage at 42 percent during the regular season.

Spoelstra made key adjustments on both ends in the second half to nail the win in Game 5. Haslem drew Hibbert out of the lane and attacked his lack of mobility by driving from the perimeter. If Hibbert was slow to close out, Haslem burned him with corner pocket jumpers. On defense, Hibbert couldn’t get an easy touch with Haslem fronting and the Heat doubling at the post. Cross-matching created confusion in the Pacers’ offense with Stephenson unable to juke James and Hill turning cold as he struggled in foul trouble. Andersen kept a body on Hibbert when it was his chance to defend the middle and it worked in taking away his putback opportunities. Hibbert should be relieved that the Birdman will serve his one-game suspension, whether deserved or not, this morning.

Miami has managed to erect a 3-2 lead over Indiana despite Wade’s erratic play because of a sore right knee. Wade suffered the strain in Game 3 of the Milwaukee series and didn’t play the next outing. He has scored at least 20 points only once in the playoffs – that was in Game 2 against Milwaukee. Chris Bosh is another mainstay who hasn’t delivered big numbers particularly against Indiana because of Hibbert. He has scored back-to-back seven points in the last two Indiana games. It’s a credit to Spoelstra that even as Wade and Bosh aren’t contributing significantly in offense, the Heat is a win away from entering the Finals.

It’s a twice-to-beat advantage that Miami enjoys moving into Game 6 this morning. Indiana must beat the Heat twice in a row to face San Antonio in the Last Dance and one has to be at Miami. If only the Pacers top scorer Danny Granger could play, Indiana wouldn’t be in such a bleak situation. Under the circumstances, it doesn’t look promising for the Pacers to survive the summer Heatwave.