Once and for all

LAS VEGAS – The numbers indicate how close their first three fights were. In 2004, Manny Pacquiao and Juan Manuel Marquez battled to a split draw as featherweights. Four years later, Pacquiao won by a split decision as superfeatherweights. Last November, the fighting Congressman from Sarangani eked out a majority verdict in a welterweight contest. Although Marquez has never beaten Pacquiao, every fight could’ve gone either way. No outcome has been conclusive.

In terms of rounds won, Marquez has claimed 56 to Pacquiao’s 52, compiling the scores of the three judges in the three fights. The extremes were Guy Jutras’ 10-2 advantage for Marquez in the first fight and Glenn Trowbridge’s 8-4 for Pacquiao in the third. Of the nine judges, four went for Pacquiao, three for Marquez and two were even. Overall, Pacquiao has scored 1,024 points for an average of 114 and Marquez 1,017 for an average of 113. The big difference is Pacquiao has scored four knockdowns and Marquez none.

This morning (Manila time), Pacquiao and Marquez will try to settle the issue with finality. It’s a once-and-for-all battle. Both fighters want a conclusive ending to the quadrilogy and nobody’s even speculating on a quintology. Pacquiao’s trainer Freddie Roach said there will be no fifth fight because the conclusion will be decisive. Roach confided that Pacquiao himself said he’ll score a knockout. But that’s also what Marquez said.

In “El Tiempo Libre,” Marquez said he will leave no doubt as to who’s the better fighter. “Juan Manuel needs to be smart, quick and strong,” said his Hall of Fame trainer Nacho Beristain. “We’ll look for a knockout so there will be no doubt unlike in the first three fights.” Marquez chimed in, “A lot of people think like me that I won the last fight but the judges saw it the other way, now I want to win it in the ring and not leave it what the judges think.”

USA Today polled 12 top US writers on their predictions and seven called it for Pacquiao, three by knockout. Four saw it for Marquez, all by decision, and one forecast a draw. The New York Post, the New York Daily News and two writers from Ring.com favored Marquez while the Boston Herald, two from Los Angeles Times, Sports Illustrated, The Ring and two from USA Today chose Pacquiao.

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Former WBC secretary-general Eduardo Lamazon, now a TV boxing analyst for the Azteca Mexico network, said Pacquiao will win either by knockout or decision because of the age factor. “Juan Manuel is 39, he’s not like before,” said Lamazon. “History is against him. It’s not like he’s going from 22 to 23 which makes no difference but from 38 to 39, that makes a big difference in boxing.”

Lamazon said he doesn’t expect Marquez to fight differently. “Juan Manuel’s style won’t change but maybe, Manny will be more aggressive this time,” said Lamazon. “Remember, this is a 39-year-old fighter facing a younger opponent. But Juan Manuel will come to fight, he’s a warrior, he won’t back down. I’m excited to see what will happen. In Mexico, we expect 60 million people to be watching the fight.” The wear and tear is evident in Marquez’ record which shows he has fought 456 rounds in 61 fights compared to Pacquiao’s 365 rounds in 60.

TV commentator Jim Lampley said even with more bulk, Marquez won’t charge in like a raging bull. “Nacho has worked with Marquez for 31 years since he was eight and built him to become the best backfoot fighter in the world, nothing will change that,” he said. “For Pacquiao, it’s 2/3 power and 1/3 jabs while for Marquez, it’s 1/3 power and 2/3 jabs. It’ll be a close fight like before but in boxing, who wins is the guy who is more aggressive, who punches more.”

Lampley said he’s not impressed by Marquez’ muscle build-up. “He weighed less than Pacquiao but looked bigger,” he said. “But all that muscle mass isn’t going to help. It’ll slow him down. In boxing, that added muscle won’t translate to more power.”

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Pacquiao’s advantages are his speed, volume punching, power and heart. He said his killer instinct is back but it remains to be seen if he will be merciless or compassionate. Marquez’ advantages are his resiliency – the ability to adjust in the course of a fight, recuperative power (he’s never been stopped in six losses, surviving knockdowns to Pacquiao, Floyd Mayweather, Michael Katsidis and Freddie Norwood) and technical skills.

Pacquiao, 33, said he’s worked hard to strengthen his legs and filled his tank to the brim. Even if he was three weeks late in reporting for duty at the Wild Card Gym in Los Angeles, Pacquiao was in tip-top shape from Day One with Roach. At the weigh-in yesterday, Pacquiao tipped the scales at 147, the same for the Timothy Bradley bout. Marquez scaled 143, his heaviest ever. In three fights where Marquez weighed at least 140, he lost twice.

The factors of consequence are conditioning, cornerwork, style and refereeing. It’s not certain that the longer the fight, the more dangerous Marquez becomes because of the question of age. If Pacquiao is in condition to go 12 rounds and his workrate is consistently at a high level, Marquez can’t win. Quantity overcomes quality in boxing. Marquez may land the cleaner shots but if they’re less than what Pacquiao connects, he’ll be on the short end of the score. In the opposite corners are Roach and Beristain, two masters of the trade. It’ll be a chess match for the grandmasters and how efficiently their warriors will execute the fight plan is critical. In the matter of style, the southpaw Pacquiao can’t allow Marquez to dictate the tempo with his counter-punching. Pacquiao has to be relentless, pressuring Marquez from the start. If Marquez repeatedly finds the mark with his right lead, Pacquiao will be in for a long night. Finally,