Pacman to surprise JuanMa

LAS VEGAS – Unpredictability will be a key element in the fourth meeting between Manny Pacquiao and Juan Manuel Marquez at the MGM Grand Garden Arena here tonight (tomorrow morning, Manila). The unfolding quadrilogy is expected to find closure in the fourth episode with Pacquiao ready to spring a surprise on the Mexican who has repeatedly claimed highway robbery in failing to win even once in their three previous encounters.

Pacquiao said he’s in the best condition of his career, approximating the level he reached in halting the legendary Oscar de la Hoya in 2008. He hasn’t scored a knockout since halting Miguel Cotto in 2009 and his last five outings went the distance. But trainer Freddie Roach said the fight against Marquez won’t go the full route and there’s no way Pacquiao is getting knocked out.

The first three fights were close even if Marquez hasn’t won once. Their initial meeting ended in a split draw in 2004 when they were still both featherweights. It should’ve been a win by split decision for Pacquiao but judge Burt Clements erred in scoring the first round 10-7 instead of 10-6 with Marquez floored thrice. The rematch in 2008 went to Pacquiao by split decision and the third encounter last November was also won by Pacquiao, this time via a majority verdict. Marquez hasn’t gotten the benefit of the doubt thrice.

If the three previous fights could’ve gone either way, Pacquiao and Marquez are determined to find a conclusive ending in their fourth match. They’re out to win decisively. Roach said there will be no need for a fifth fight because this time, the outcome will be convincing.

Pacquiao said he’ll fight like he did when he bowled over the likes of De la Hoya, Cotto and Ricky Hatton. That means he won’t snipe and slide, peck and backtrack. He’ll be relentless, aggressive and dominant. He’ll pressure Marquez from start to finish. He won’t give Marquez space to breathe. He’ll smother him with punches from all angles. If that’s the plan, it’ll be up to Pacquiao to execute.

“I know he knows my style, in and out, in and out,” said Pacquiao, quoted by Jeremy Schaap in ESPN The Magazine. “But this time, I’ll change my style and be more aggressive. He’s gonna be surprised that I changed my style. We need the fourth fight because he’s always claiming he won the fight, that he didn’t really lose. We need the fourth fight to answer all the doubts in his mind. And also in his fans’ mind. If he gives me a chance to finish the fight, why not? I mean, I’m not predicting I’m going to knock him out but I’ll do my best and get back the aggressiveness I had when I was 25 or 26 years old.”

If Pacquiao, who is 33, intends to turn back the hands of time, Marquez wants to do the same only the Mexican has a lot more traveling to do. Marquez is 39 with lots of mileage in his body, having battled through 456 rounds compared to Pacquiao’s 365.

The challenge facing Pacquiao is since he moved up to the welterweight division, his knockout rate has dropped precipitously. The Ring Magazine made a study on his knockout history and disclosed that when Pacquiao weighed 108 to 126 pounds, his rate was 70 percent but at 130 to 147, it dropped to 47 percent. In seven fights where he scaled at least 140, Pacquiao registered a 6-1 record, with only two stoppages for a knockout rate of 28.6 percent.

Pacquiao’s former strength and conditioning coach Justin Fortune said he’s sure the fight will end inside the distance and Marquez can’t score a knockout, meaning in his mind, the Filipino will win.

Still, there are those who doubt that a knockout is possible considering how the first three fights wound up. “Marquez’ ability has always rested in his tactical skill – his ability to adjust and anticipate,” said Norm Frauenheim of The Ring Magazine. “Pacquiao became a star because of his knockout prowess but he hasn’t stopped anybody since a 12th round TKO of Miguel Cotto in November 2009. What’s more, Pacquiao failed to knock out Marquez at weights – feather and junior lightweight – when few could withstand his potent blend of power and speed.  At 126 pounds, he fought four times, winning three by stoppage. In the fourth, he floored Marquez three times in the opening round yet settled for a draw in 2004, their first bout. At 130 pounds, he fought eight times, winning seven and losing one to Erik Morales. The victories include four stoppages. Against Marquez, Pacquiao won by split decision.”

Marquez said he will also surprise Pacquiao by charging in, confident that his new-found strength and bulk will bowl over the Filipino icon. Roach said once Marquez feels the sting in Pacquiao’s punches, the Mexican will revert to his traditional counter-punching style. The fight could be closer than what either Pacquiao or Marquez is imagining.