Trends don't mean a thing

There’s a saying in Filipino basketball that expresses the unpredictability of the game – “bilog ang bola.” No matter the odds or trends, you can never be sure of which team will win until the final buzzer. You factor in probabilities and percentages but when it comes down to the bottom line, the team with the bigger heart will eventually win and that’s unquantifiable.

Take the raging PBA Commissioner’s Cup finals between defending champion Talk ‘N’ Text and B-Meg. PBA stats guru Fidel Mangonon points out that in 32 of the 47 best-of-seven series tied 1-1 in league history, the team that won Game 3 went on to clinch. That’s a success rate of 67 percent. But in six of the last seven best-of-seven PBA finals, the team that won Game 3 from a 1-1 tie wound up in second place. So what trend will apply in the current series? Your guess is as good as anyone’s.

If Talk ‘N’ Text loses Game 4 tonight, the Llamados will open up a commanding 3-1 series advantage. In any league, it’s nearly impossible for a team to recover from that black hole and clinch. But let’s not forget that the Texters did it in the semifinals of the last conference. They didn’t only defy the odds, they mocked the trend. Still, Texters coach Chot Reyes won’t want to risk another tightrope act by losing to B-Meg back-to-back. It’s not prudent to push your luck.

In Game 3 last Friday, the outcome threw off two trends that confused oddsmakers even more. Talk ‘N’ Text had more rebounds, 56-51, and less turnovers, 11-15, but couldn’t parlay those two advantages into a win. Theoretically, the team that controls the boards is able to dictate tempo and in this series, pace is critical because of the defense-versus-offense theme. B-Meg likes to play deliberate and methodical while Talk ‘N’ Text prefers the frenetic up-and-down style. But even as the Tropa had the edge off the boards and committed less mistakes, the Texters couldn’t carve out a win. Because those two edges lead to more possessions, Talk ‘N’ Text had eight more field goal attempts. The problem is B-Meg’s lock-down defense kept the Tropa from capitalizing. The Llamados’ transition defense was unforgiving and in the interior, B-Meg was just as merciless.

* * * *

It seemed like B-Meg goaded Talk ‘N’ Text into attacking the basket to take away the kick-out option. The Texters muffed several layups because of B-Meg’s intimidating presence under the boards. Denzel Bowles was a frightening interior policeman, using his arms like nightsticks in batting away shots. He finished with six blocked shots.

No question, Talk ‘N’ Text is a guard-oriented team with Jimmy Alapag, Jayson Castro and Ryan Reyes forming what could be the most talented backcourt corps in the league. B-Meg coach Tim Cone is aware of how crucial a role the Tropa guards play. That’s why his defensive concentration is on the guards. That’s also the reason why Cone used Mark Barroca, instead of Josh Urbiztondo, down the stretch to defend Castro last Friday. Barroca isn’t as explosive a scorer as Urbiztondo but he’s a more focused defender.

Ryan Reyes got away with 21 points in Game 3 but had only one assist. Alapag was 2-of-13 from the field and Castro, 3-of-19 with a combined four assists. As a team, Talk ‘N’ Text collected only eight assists compared to B-Meg’s 18. That meant B-Meg stunted the Texters’ ball movement and forced the Tropa to play more one-on-one than usual. With limited kick-out options, the Texters knocked down only 5-of-24 triples for a 21 percent clip. Before Game 3, Talk ‘N’ Text’s three-point norm was 33 percent. If Talk ‘N’ Text isn’t able to hit consistently from three-point distance, the Texters are in big trouble.

What should encourage Talk ‘N’ Text is despite Alapag and Castro combining for just 5-of-32 from the floor, the Tropa lost to B-Meg by only four and the situation wasn’t settled until the last few seconds. Add to Reyes’ woes was Ranidel de Ocampo’s absence. De Ocampo had only two field goal attempts, both from three-point range, and finished with just a free throw. What a far cry from his 19.7 scoring average in the Texters’ three wins over Barako Bull in the semifinals. De Ocampo is due for a rebound and Reyes hopes it comes sooner than later.

* * * *

The positive sign for Talk ‘N’ Text is Ali Peek’s reemergence. He had 15 points and 11 rebounds in Game 3 plus played tough defense on Bowles. Peek should play a more pronounced role in Game 4 tonight, particularly in pushing Bowles away from the block and taking away his comfort zone.

Reyes’ designation of Kelly Williams as James Yap’s primary defender backfired in Game 3. Instead of Williams helping on recovery defense or breaking loose on offense, he painstakingly tried to put the cuffs on Yap, fighting picks, sacrificing his body and wearing himself out. Big Game James fired 21 points and Williams was hardly a factor on offense with five points. Maybe, Jared Dillinger will get the defensive nod on Yap in Game 4 to allow Williams more chances to energize the offense.

Cone’s ability to mix and match is key to unlocking B-Meg’s fortunes. Whether B-Meg plays a big or small lineup, the Llamados match up more than adequately against the Texters. Bowles turns 23 on Tuesday and is looking to celebrate his birthday early with a win tonight. Will Talk ‘N’ Text spoil his party?