Diaz wrong choice for Cotto?

WBA superwelterweight champion Miguel Cotto has worked with four different trainers in the last four years and the constant switching may be counter-productive. He’s gone from his uncle Evangelista Cotto to Joe Santiago to Emanuel Steward and now, Cuban Pedro Diaz.

Evangelista was in Cotto’s corner when he was stopped by Antonio Margarito in 2008. Santiago was in his corner when Cotto beat Manny Pacquiao punching bag Joshua Clottey via a split decision and the Puerto Rico was halted by the Filipino icon in the 12th round. Cotto hired Diaz for the Margarito rematch which he won on a 10th round retirement last December.

Cotto, 31, stakes his WBA 154-pound crown against Floyd Mayweather Jr. at the MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas on May 5 and for the second straight bout, Diaz will be in his corner. Mayweather, 35, handpicked Cotto for his opponent when he couldn’t come to terms with Pacquiao for a showdown. Mayweather wouldn’t have chosen Cotto if he didn’t think he could beat him – that’s just the way he is. Mayweather doesn’t like taking chances. He’s got an unblemished record (42-0, with 26 KOs) to protect and that’s his only claim to invincibility.

Diaz has a doctorate in pedagogical sciences and used to teach at the University of Sports in Cuba. He was involved with the highly touted Cuban amateur boxing team for about 20 years, producing Olympic gold medalists like Joel Casamayor and Felix Savon. Diaz has also worked with the Chinese boxing team. At the 2008 Olympics, Diaz was behind Dominican Republic fighter Felix Diaz’ gold medal finish in the lightwelterweight division. After the Beijing Olympics, Diaz defected from Cuba and relocated to Montreal.

Diaz’ influence was evident in Cotto’s rematch with Margarito. Cotto didn’t just plod and whack. He boxed, moved and even threw punches on the backfoot. Margarito, however, didn’t bring out the best in Cotto because he came in as damaged goods. He hadn’t fought since suffering a fractured orbital bone under his right eye in losing to Pacquiao a year before. Margarito was slow to react and very cautious, probably worried that another battering would lead to a permanent impairment. The Mexican eventually surrendered on his stool at the end of the 10th round and it doesn’t look like he’ll ever fight again.

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Against Mayweather, Cotto would be insane to try to outbox the unbeaten stylist. You can’t beat Mayweather fighting his style. Mayweather’s too slick to be outboxed. Cotto has to pressure Mayweather into the ropes or the corners, crowd him, take away his jab and goad him into slugging it out. In the amateurs, you don’t do that. You strike from a distance to make sure the five judges see what you’re doing. You throw jab-straight combinations and rarely attack the body. You don’t go for a knockout. Power-puff punches will do as long as they connect. In the pros, it’s an entirely different scenario.

Besides, Cotto is known as a body puncher who likes to brawl. His style isn’t what Diaz is used to. If Diaz tries to transform Cotto into a fighter that he isn’t, it’s a perfect recipe for disaster. Mayweather will eat Cotto alive if the Puerto Rican decides to box instead of punch.

Cotto has an 80 percent knockout rate with 30 stoppages in 37 wins, compared to Mayweather’s 62 percent with 26 abbreviated victories in 42 wins. No doubt, Cotto is the harder hitter. But will Diaz turn Cotto from a brawler to a stylist? And even if Cotto attacks aggressively, will he be able to locate an easy target?

Mayweather is hard to hit. He isn’t a volume puncher but he’s accurate in the few blows that he throws. Mayweather won’t drop Cotto with a single smite but could wear him down over the long haul.

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Cotto is a lot more shop-worn than Mayweather. In his career, he’s averaged 3.5 fights a year compared to Mayweather’s 2.6 even if Pretty Boy turned pro in 1996, five years before Cotto. In the last five years, Mayweather has logged only five bouts and didn’t even see action in 2008. Cotto, in contrast, has figured in 11 fights since 2007.

Working to Cotto’s advantage are the use of eight-ounce gloves and his comfort zone as a superwelterweight. The mandatory use of 10-ounce gloves usually starts in the superwelterweight class but the fighters opted for eight-ouncers. The heavier hitter has an edge with eight-ouncers instead of 10-ouncers. As for the weight, Cotto has tipped the scales between 152 1/4 and 154 in his last three outings while Mayweather has checked in between 146 and 147 in his last four. Since they’re fighting at a weight limit of 154, Cotto will be at an advantage as Mayweather may lose a bit of his mobility with the increase in poundage.

The fight will probably go the full route with Mayweather expected to do a clinic and teach Cotto a boxing lesson he’ll never forget. Mayweather is anticipating another win and his workout T-shirt already shows an “updated” record of 43-0 under the words “God-Gifted, The Best Ever, Champ That Is Here To Stay.” Mayweather can’t afford to lose if only to keep alive hopes of battling Pacquiao in a huge moneymaker. He’ll want to report for an 87-day jail term on June 1 for domestic abuse fresh from a win over Cotto.