Third place tough act for Team Phl

MANILA, Philippines - Philippine Sports Commission chairman Richie Garcia made the bold prediction that the Philippines could win 70 gold medals, nearly double the capacity of 2009, and finish third overall in the 26th Southeast Asian Games, but that prediction will be challenged by the ambitious drives of Malaysia, Singapore and Vietnam.

While the first and second overall are all but conceded to host Indonesia and defending champion Thailand, the third overall will be no man’s land, with the Philippines joining the fray in the battle for 545 gold medals at stake in 42 sports disciplines.

Indonesia could dominate canoeing (15 golds), rowing (11), wrestling (14), weightlifting (14) and archery (4), has the home court edge in the new sports of vovinam (16 golds), paragliding (12), sport climbing (10), bridge (9) and water ski (11), expects to win 12 of 18 golds in cycling, and is always in gold medal contention in medal-rich athletics, swimming and shooting.

Thailand is at its best in athletics, particularly the sprints and the relays, fencing, men’s and women’s golf, shooting, swimming, boxing, gymnastics, snooker, sailing, lawn tennis and soft tennis and volleyball.

Like China, they can be the best in every sport.

The Malaysians are next to world-class in bowling and diving, and are formidable in athletics, swimming, sepak takraw and cycling. The Vietnamese are outstanding in football, volleyball, finswimming, chess and all the martial arts, while Singapore has gold medal hopefuls in all the pet events of Malaysia and Vietnam.

The Philippines also has gold mines of its own.

The Filipino teams and players to beat in both Jakarta and Palembang are the men’s basketball team, athletics’ long-time winners Henry Dagmil and Maristella Torres (long jump), four-time 3000m steeplechase winner Rene Herrera, marathoner Eduardo Buenavista, javelin throwers Danilo Fresnido and Rosie Villarito, hammer thrower Arniel Ferrera, and the 4x100 relay team, world champions Marilen Amit and Dennis Orcollo in billiards, the women golfers in both individual and team events, boxer Rey Saludar, cyclist Marites Bitbit, divers Niño Carag, Rexel Ryan Fabriga and Sheila Mae Perez, and undefeated SEAG judo champion John Baylon.

Others who will fight for the gold but could face strong resistance are the men’s baseball team, Django Bustamante, Warren Kiamco, Reynaldo Grandea, Bata Reyes and Iris Ranola in billiards, Asian Games champion Biboy Rivera in bowling, boxers Charly Suarez and Olympic qualifier Mark Anthony Barriga, female boxers Alice Kate Aparri and Josie Gabuco, grandmasters Wesley So , John Paul Gomez, Darwin Laylo and Mark Paragua in chess, Alfie Catalan, Eusebio Quinones, Irish Valenzuela and Lloyd Reynante in cycling, Ruth Dugaduga, Nancy Quillotes and Helen Dawa in judo, Tac Padilla, Mae Concepcion and Carolino Gonzales in shooting, Cecil Mamiit in lawn tennis, Mark Eddiva, Eduard Folayang and Daniel Parantac in wushu, equestrienne Tonette Leviste, fencers Emerson Segui, Ramil Endriano and Walbert Mendoza, and Hidilyn Diaz in weightlifting.

Those who will be up against the odds to win the gold are the all-rookie men’s golf team, rowers Benjie Tolentino and Jose Rodriguez, the softball team, taekwondo jins John Paul Lizardo, Jeffrey Figueroa and Samuel Thomas Morisson, the traditional boat race team, ageless Liza del Rosario and Liza Clutario in bowling and young Johnny Arcilla, Treat Huey and Jeson Patrombon in men’s tennis.

The Philippine contingent is putting to the test new faces that emerged from the training programs of various sports associations. Those who could spring a surprise are the women’s basketball team, the teenage Palawan finswimmers, pencak silat’s Marmeil Dimla, Christopher Yabut, Jayrashely Kiram and Nerilyn Huinda, Joseph Arcilla in soft tennis, 16-year-old Jayson Valdez in shooting, Denise Dy and Clarissa Patrimonio in women’s tennis, and Ernesto Ebuen and Richard Gonzales in table tennis.

It could be anybody’s game in the new sports of paragliding, petanque, windsurfing, sport climbing, water ski and futsal, but the hosts are expected to take the lion’s share.

Filipino bets in badminton, sepak takraw, sailing, pencak silat, canoeing have been consistent losers in the SEA Games.

The swimming team has lost Miguel Molina, Daniel Coakley and other Fil-Americans, leaving a bunch of new finds to fight for the gold in the medal-rich competition.

The big guns of karatedo have vanished or were banished by the new leadership, and in their place are fresh recruits who carry the burden of vying for a medal in 17 events.

The cycling team is composed of tested veterans, but they lack the training in their buildup to the games because of leaders’ intramurals back home. The team was chosen by a task force of the Philippine Olympic Committee.

The same goes with archery and karatedo whose selection and training program has been in disarray because of unresolved leadership issues.

Fencing, a productive sport over a decade ago, is struggling to be competitive on the SEAG level following the indefinite leave of absence of its president Cito Dayrit. The same is true with table tennis, whose president is on study leave.