Waiting in ambush

Outright semifinal qualifiers Talk ‘N’ Text and Smart Gilas are keenly awaiting the outcome of the two do-or-die quarterfinal games in the PBA Commissioner’s Cup at the Araneta Coliseum tonight.

The Tropang Texters will face the winner of the Air 21-Alaska duel while Gilas takes on the Barangay Ginebra-Rain Or Shine survivor in separate best-of-five semifinal encounters.

You couldn’t ask for a more climactic ending to the quarterfinals. Ginebra drew first blood by spilling the Elasto Painters, 100-91, in their series opener last Friday. The Kings got the job done with a torrid performance from three-point range, knocking down 11 treys to blunt coach Yeng Guiao’s gamble of clogging the lane while giving up the outside shot. But Rain Or Shine evened the count, 113-99, last Sunday, using coach Joseph Uichico’s formula in Game 1. Guiao’s squad hit 15 three-pointers and registered an incredible assist-to-turnover ratio, 30-10 to the Kings’ 17-to-19.

Now, it’s down to a knockout match. Win or go home. Mark Caguioa was held to only five points in Game 2 after averaging 22 in his last three outings. Without the Spark lighting up, Ginebra isn’t as menacing on offense. The three-point shot was the game changer in the first two outings but it may not play a decisive role tonight as both sides are expected to be more aggressive in bringing their attack closer to the basket. 

Guiao will likely use a three-man backline to neutralize Nate Brumfield instead of a risky double team from where the former Oklahoma Baptist star can whip passes to open teammates. It’ll be a sort of a man-zone defense with two guards on top playing man-to-man and the three frontliners at the back protecting the baseline. As for Ginebra, Uichico will try to keep Hassan Adams away from a threatening position by doubling him whenever and wherever he has possession. The trick is to check Adams’ passing because last Friday, he collected five of Rain Or Shine’s 30 assists.

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Ginebra looked shaky in Game 2 and Rain Or Shine capitalized by scoring 24 turnover points to the Kings’ nine. That kind of discrepancy will be telling in the rubber match. The team that is more efficient will no doubt advance to the semifinals and that means collecting more assists, less turnovers.

To get its run-and-gun game going, Ginebra must dictate the tempo and that’s predicated on controlling both boards, especially the defensive glass. When the Kings are on a rampage, all hell breaks loose because the fans will make sure their opponents feel the heat. Rain Or Shine can’t afford Ginebra to excite their fans to a frenzy.

As for the other pairing, Alaska is lucky to still be alive and kicking. Air21 almost took Game 1 and let it slip away in the dying seconds. The Express had the edge in offensive rebounds, 33-14, second chance points, 35-12, field goal attempts, 96-76, and total rebounds, 61-46, but lost it on a buzzer-beating tip by Sonny Thoss. It was a dagger that Thoss stuck into coach Bong Ramos’ heart. There couldn’t be a more painful way to lose.

In Game 2 last Sunday, the Express made sure there wouldn’t be another late collapse. This time, import Alpha Bangura took charge down the stretch and bailed out Air21 with a 40-point explosion. That’s the second game where Bangura netted at least 40. Only two imports hit 40 or more this conference – Meralco’s Champ Oguchi with 43 and San Miguel Beer’s David Young with 42 but they did it only once each.

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Air21’s defense limited Alaska to a poor .372 clip from the floor and that was key. Aces import L. D. Williams struggled with 17 points on 5-of-14 field goals and 6-of-11 free throws. Bangura totally outplayed Williams in a battle of NCAA Division I standouts.

Bangura played at St. John’s while Williams starred at Wake Forest. Both schools are rich in basketball tradition. Among the St. John’s cagers were Ron Artest, Chris Mullin, Mark Jackson and Jayson Williams. The Wake Forest stars included Tim Duncan, Muggsy Bogues, Josh Howard, Chris Paul and former Ginebra import Chris King.

Air21 outrebounded Alaska in Games 1 and 2. If the Aces don’t find an antidote to the Express’ dominance off the boards, they’re in big trouble. Air21 must start strong to open an early lead and force Alaska to play on its heels. Alaska is a team that thrives under pressure. Coach Tim Cone knows which buttons to push when the game’s on the line. Ramos is banking on his San Miguel recruits to overachieve and so far, Danny Seigle, Dondon Hontiveros, Dorian Peña and Paul Artadi haven’t disappointed. 

No matter which teams survive tonight, Talk ‘N’ Text and Gilas are in for a dogfight in the semifinals.

Postscript: Poor Armando Vazquez was knocked out by former WBO minimumweight champion Donnie Nietes at 2:26 of the first round in a fight in Bacolod City last Saturday. Not only did the Mexican travel thousands of miles to get flattened in less than three minutes but his name was also brutalized in media. One writer called him Romeo and another, Antonio. For the record, Vazquez never appeared in a Filipino movie and never coached Alaska in the PBA.