Why Manny will win

Antonio Margarito will be the biggest fighter ever to face Manny Pacquiao when they clash for the vacant WBC superwelterweight title at the Cowboys Stadium in Arlington, Texas, this morning (Manila time).

But size won’t be the telling factor in determining the outcome of what could be the toughest challenge in Pacquiao’s career. The more important factor is speed. If Pacquiao is in tip-top condition and uses his quickness to advantage, there’s no way he will lose to Margarito who needs a standing target to suit his aggressive, come-forward style. And from all indications, Pacquiao is in excellent shape.

Besides, you’re reminded of the famous boxing quotation, “The bigger they are, the harder they fall.” The aphorism was attributed to Bob Fitzsimmons who weighed less than 170 pounds in defeating Jim Corbett by a 14th round knockout to win the world heavyweight crown in 1897. Corbett tipped the scales at 184. Fitzsimmons was never fazed by bigger opponents although he pushed himself over the limit in taking on Jim Jeffries, who outweighed him by close to 40 pounds, to lose by knockout in 1899. In his ring career, Fitzsimmons captured the middleweight, lightheavyweight and heavyweight championships.

Pacquiao, 31, is the heavy favorite to beat Margarito. The “Tijuana Tornado” is praying for an upset. In boxing history, November is noted as a “month of upsets.” On Nov. 5, 1994, 45-year-old George Foreman defied the oddsmakers in disposing of Michael Moorer to regain the world heavyweight diadem he had lost to Muhammad Ali over two decades before. And on Nov. 4, 1996, 25-to-1 underdog Evander Holyfield halted the supposedly indestructible “Iron” Mike Tyson in the 11th round. Margarito hopes to do what Foreman and Holyfield did and register the upset of the decade.

The fight is Pacquiao’s 13th after suffering his last loss to Erik Morales on points in 2005. Pacquiao hasn’t lost since the first Morales outing and is gunning for his 13th straight victory to nail a record eighth world title in eight weight divisions. Will it be lucky or unlucky 13 for Pacquiao?

The five S-factors going for Pacquiao are stamina, speed, style, side-to-side and smarts. Pacquiao isn’t expected to engage Margarito in the early going particularly as the Mexican is most dangerous in the first few rounds despite an ironic reputation as a slow starter. Note that Margarito has registered 18 of his 27 knockouts in the first four rounds, a 67 percent clip. Margarito will try to use his edge in bulk and length to smother Pacquiao, push him to the ropes and into a corner and mow him down. Pacquiao is too slick to be trapped in an uncompromising situation. He’ll use his speed and lateral motion to throw Margarito off-balance. It will take a lot of stamina to move away from the relentless Margarito. Because the Mexican’s footwork is suspect, Pacquiao will tie him up in knots by circling away from his plodding opponent. Margarito is slow to react and that will be a major liability.

Pacquiao won’t allow himself to be pinned to the ropes or into a corner. He won’t do a rope-a-dope and invite Margarito to bang away like he did to Miguel Cotto. Instead, Pacquiao will stick and run, confuse, frustrate and tire out Margarito. Pacquiao’s high boxing IQ will tell him what’s risky and what’s not in staying on top in a war of attrition. Margarito throws a lot of punches but Pacquiao will make him miss much more than he lands.

If Pacquiao has weaknesses, they will be his lack of size, the distractions that hounded his training camp and overconfidence. If Pacquiao allows Margarito’s size to dominate, he’ll be in big trouble. And if he takes Margarito lightly, it will be costly.

As for Margarito, his strengths are his length, hunger and power. The Mexican’s six-inch reach advantage is daunting. If he puts it to good use, Pacquiao won’t be able to come close to land his combinations. He’s hungry for vindication, recognition and redemption. The suspension stemming from the hand-wraps incident is a black mark on his record. Margarito is hoping that an impressive showing against Pacquiao will erase the stigma. As for power, there’s no doubt Margarito is the stronger puncher if only because of the weight difference. But his power won’t do him any good if he doesn’t connect.

What Pacquiao must do to win is to be an elusive target, meaning he can’t stand around waiting to get hit. He must be active with both hands and feet. He can’t be pushed around the ring. It’s Pacquiao’s call to dictate the tempo, not Margarito. Pacquiao must overwhelm Margarito with his combinations from all angles and make him quit. The S-factors will do the rest.

For Margarito to win, he’s got to overpower Pacquiao with his size, bang the body to slow down the Filipino, start strong to set the pace and cut the ring off to prevent him from creating angles to throw his counter punches. How to execute what he has to do is a big question mark.

In the end, the heart will show the way to win. And in boxing today, no fighter has a bigger heart than Pacquiao. It will be Pacquiao over Margarito by stoppage in the ninth round. A battered, bloodied and bewildered Margarito will quit to turn his dream of scoring an upset into a nightmare.