Toss-up in Last Dance

Before the NBA season began, two authoritative publications predicted that Boston and the Los Angeles Lakers would square off in the Finals. Sports Illustrated picked the Celtics to win over L. A. because of a sense of urgency and “their starting five is the best in the league” while Athlon Sports chose the Lakers to prevail because “this isn’t just a basketball team anymore – these guys are rock stars, the Lakers have become this generation’s Chicago Bulls with Kobe Bryant playing Michael Jordan, Pau Gasol portraying a slightly taller Scottie Pippen and Phil Jackson impersonating, well, Phil Jackson...they’ve even added Ron Artest to come in and become this team’s version of Dennis Rodman.”

Debating which team will wind up with the Larry O’Brien trophy will get you nowhere. There are so many factors to consider, pros and cons that could go either way. LA has the homecourt advantage but the Celtics have won five of eight road games so far in the playoffs, indicating they’re almost as tough on the road as they are at home. But the Lakers are 8-0 at the Staples Center, meaning if they keep that record unblemished with the homecourt advantage in the Finals, there’s no way Boston will win the championship.

Sports Illustrated said the Celtics are in a no-tomorrow situation. “Kevin Garnett knows – they all know – that if they’re going to win another championship, it has to be now,” said SI’s David Sabino. “(Ray) Allen is in the final year of his deal and who knows how the economy is going to affect the league after this year.”

Five players in Boston’s playoff roster are at least 32 years old – Paul Pierce, 32, Allen, 34, Garnett, 34, Rasheed Wallace, 35 and Michael Finley, 37. The Celtics’ vaunted Big Three are aging – gracefully, of course – and they’re not looking beyond this season to win. Their focus is here and now because time isn’t on their side.

As for SI’s contention that the Celtics’ first five is the league’s best, that’s debatable particularly as center Kendrick Perkins isn’t an All-Star even as he’s a reliable post defender.

Athlon Sports said the Lakers are fully-loaded to make it two titles in a row. “With Bryant, Gasol, Lamar Odom and if he can stay out of trouble, Artest, all operating under Jackson, the master strategist, with (Andrew) Bynum, the potential weapon who can render all other conversation moot, you have to like the Lakers’ chances to repeat,” said Athlon Sports. “Will they be as hungry now that they’ve finally won their first post-Kareem-Magic title without O’Neal? Other teams have had that problem after waving the trophy. This one could, too, if it weren’t for Kobe who lives to win rings in the same way Tiger Woods lives to win majors.”

In 17 playoff games, Boston has held opponents to an average of 91.4 points. If you break down the stats, you’ll find out that the Celtics limited opponents to 84.8 points a game in their 12 wins and gave up an average of 107 in five losses. The Celtics have also allowed opponents only 17.1 assists a game (while averaging 21.7, half coming from Rajan Rondo) and forced 16.4 turnovers (while committing only 14.0). Clearly, defense is the key to coach Doc Rivers’ success.  

On the other hand, the Lakers are averaging 105.7 points, compared to the Celtics’ 96.6. In their 12 wins, the Lakers hit at a 107.6 clip and in their four losses, the average was down to 100. What’s alarming is the Lakers’ inability to play defense without giving up free throws. They’ve allowed 491 free throws in 16 games or an average of 30.7 a game while taking only 397 foul shots. As a team, the Celtics are shooting .749 from the line in the playoffs so at the rate the Lakers are giving away charities, Boston could pick up over 20 points from the stripe alone every game in the Finals.

There appears to be more balance in the Celtics’ roster than the Lakers’. No Celtic is averaging over 20 points a game with Pierce showing the way at 19.1. Allen is next at 16.8, Rondo at 16.7 and Garnett at 14.9. The shock troopers are a fire brigade with Glen Davis (7.5), Wallace (6.5), Tony Allen (5.9), Nate Robinson (3.7), Marquis Daniels (1.3) and Finley (0.9) capable of exploding at any given night. Ironically, only four Celtics are averaging in double figures compared to five for the Lakers.

The Lakers’ offense is dominated by Bryant (29.4) and Gasol (20.0). Artest (11.5), Fisher (11.1) and Odom (10.6) are others in the firing squad. Bynum, hobbled by injuries (as a lot of others in the Finals), is averaging 9.1 points and 7.7 rebounds – numbers that could’ve made a difference in the 2008 Last Dance which he sat out (the Celtics beat the Lakers, 4-2, in the series). The relievers include Jordan Farmar (5.3), Adam Morrison (4.0), Sasha Vujacic (3.3), D. J. Mbenga (2.5) and Luke Walton (1.3).

Fisher, 35, is the Lakers’ senior statesman and he’ll be hard-pressed to match Rondo’s 24-year-old legs. Bryant, 31, Artest, 30, Odom, 30, and Walton, 30, are the other Lakers in the not-so-old category. Bynum, 22, Farmar, 23, Shannon Brown, 24, and Vujacic, 26, form the team’s young corps.

Postscript. The Celtics walloped the Lakers, 131-92, in Game 6 to clinch the NBA title in the 2008 Finals. In yesterday’s column, it was mentioned that the score was 103-98 – which was the count in Game 5 when the Lakers won to extend the series.