Ex-champs pick Cotto over Manny

MANILA, Philippines - Former WBO lightwelterweight champion Kendall Holt and former IBF lightwelterweight titleholder Paul Malignaggi are on the record for picking Miguel Cotto to beat Manny Pacquiao in their scheduled 12-round bout for the WBO welterweight crown at the MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas on Nov. 14.

Holt, who has knocked out Pacquiao victim David Diaz and Cotto victim Ricardo Torres, predicted the Puerto Rican will stop the Filipino icon in the ninth round.

“Cotto will end up stopping him because he’s too big and too strong,” said Holt, quoted by Joseph Santoliquito in The Ring Magazine. “Cotto has shown he can deal with the fastest fighters in the world, beating Zab Judah and Shane Mosley. Pacquiao beat a dried-up Oscar de la Hoya and Ricky Hatton was made for him. Pacquiao’s victories definitely fooled the general public.”

Malignaggi said Pacquiao “is definitely trying to bite off more than he can chew” in facing Cotto. The Brooklyn stylist lost a 12-round decision to Cotto three years ago and was halted by Hatton in 2008.

“I know (Pacquiao) beat Oscar but you can make the argument that Oscar was pretty shot by then,” said Malignaggi whose record is 26-3, with six KOs. “Cotto’s punches hurt, believe me I felt them. I don’t know if Manny can take that from such a bigger guy who’s close to the top of his game. Cotto wins by decision in a great fight.”

Size is the advantage that Cotto hopes to exploit in trying to repulse Pacquiao who has fought only two fighters weighing in at least 140 pounds – Hatton at 140 and De la Hoya at 145. Pacquiao has never weighed in more than 142 pounds for a bout and in his last outing against Hatton, tipped the scales at 138.

Cotto and Pacquiao agreed to fight at a catchweight limit of 145 pounds, two under the welterweight max of 147. The Puerto Rican has weighed in at least 146 for his last eight fights dating back to 2006. That makes him a legitimate or natural welterweight, bigger and potentially stronger than Pacquiao. During the eight-fight stretch, Cotto lost only once to Antonio Margarito in a knockout whose integrity is now being questioned as the Mexican was found to use illegal hardening substances in his handwraps in his next bout against Mosley. The setback to Margarito is the only stain in Cotto’s record of 34-1, with 27 KOs.

Size makes a difference because theoretically, the bigger fighter should be able to withstand the power of a smaller opponent, not the other way around. Since power is one of Pacquiao’s assets, Cotto’s size may not make it a factor. At the same time, it’s a question mark if Pacquiao, being the smaller fighter, will be able to take Cotto’s power.

“Strength has always been integral to a fighter who, while the possessor of excellent boxing skills, relies on aggressive power, both in general and as a leveller when fights have been going against him,” wrote Glyn Leach, referring to Cotto, in Boxing Monthly Magazine.

Cotto’s power was evident in his jab when he outpointed Mosley in 2007 and his body punching when he halted Carlos Quintana for the vacant WBA welterweight title in 2006. The Puerto Rican’s power left jab and brutal body attack are the hallmarks of his offense.

Cotto, who turns 29 on Oct. 29, is a natural lefthander who sometimes, switch-hits to confuse his opponent. He moved from orthodox to southpaw and back in stopping Demetrio Ceballos in 2003. But Cotto has shown a vulnerability to the counter right hook by a southpaw. In 2005, he was wobbled and staggered by experienced lefthander DeMarcus Corley who used a counter right hook as his main weapon.

Pacquiao, of course, is a southpaw who is much more experienced than Cotto with 19 more fights under his belt. Pacquiao’s record is 49-3-2, with 37 KOs.

One of Cotto’s trademarks is his resiliency. In 2004, he made key defensive adjustments in stopping Kelson Pinto. And against Torres in 2005, Cotto survived a second round knockdown to win in the seventh.

What may deter Cotto is the wear-and-tear factor. He has been involved in a lot more body-draining, bloody and gut-wrenching brawls than Pacquiao. Cotto went down twice in the Margarito fight and some experts insist he’s never been the same since the horrifying defeat. He barely beat Joshua Clottey in his last assignment, winning by a split decision, and finished the fight with a deep cut in his left eyebrow which was also torn apart by Margarito.

A downside to Cotto’s size advantage is he’s clearly slower than Pacquiao who will rely on his speed and mobility to strike his target from all angles. Cotto is easy to hit because he’s basically a plodder whose style of attack is marked by moving forward.

The match is expected to be a humdinger with Cotto fighting for respect and Pacquiao battling to make boxing history as the first fighter ever to capture seven world titles in different divisions with his 50th career victory.