Factors of consequence

LAS VEGAS – It may seem strange but the fact is Manny Pacquiao will enter the ring at the MGM Grand Garden Arena here this morning (Manila time) the challenger, not the champion.

Ricky Hatton is making the fourth defense of the IBO lightwelterweight crown he won on a 12-round decision over Juan Urango in Las Vegas two years ago. He has so far disposed of challengers Jose Luis Castillo, Juan Lazcano and Paul Malignaggi.

Although he’s the challenger, Pacquiao is taking home the bigger guaranteed purse – $12 million to Hatton’s $8 million, although it is rumored the Filipino is assured of at least $13 million with co-promoters Top Rank and Golden Boy contributing the increment. That’s because he is, after all, the world’s No. 1 pound-for-pound fighter.

Here are the 15 factors that could decide the outcome of the bout.

• Stamina. The fighter who is in better shape has a major edge particularly if it goes down to the wire. Conditioning is more of a concern for Pacquiao because he will rely on speed to stay away from Hatton. Advantage: Pacquiao.

• Power. Hatton hasn’t lost as a lightwelterweight and he’s comfortable in the 140-pound division. Although Pacquiao stopped Oscar de la Hoya last December, he couldn’t put him on the floor, raising doubts as to his ability to flatten fighters who are naturally heavier. At this weight class, Hatton has more one-punch impact than Pacquiao. Advantage: Hatton.

• Speed. Pacquiao’s quickness in both hands and feet is blinding. Hatton won’t find a standing target and he’ll find it difficult to put his punches together because Pacquiao will be in constant motion. Advantage: Pacquiao.

• Skills. Hatton’s trainer Floyd Mayweather Sr. insists the Hitman has been transformed into a boxer-puncher and now isn’t just a brawler. That remains to be seen. As for Pacquiao, there’s no doubt he has the skills of a ring master. He is more dangerous when he throws his dizzying combinations from a distance. Advantage: Pacquiao.

• Resiliency. The ability to adjust during a fight is crucial. If Hatton resorts to dirty tricks, Pacquiao will know what to do because he’s flexible. He’s ready to handle whatever Hatton brings to the table. If Pacquiao has to box, he will. If he has to punch, he will. Pacquiao will do what it takes for the “London bridge” to fall down. Advantage: Pacquiao.

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• Durability. Because Hatton is bigger, he may be able to take Pacquiao’s punches more than vice versa. Hatton was floored by unheralded Eamonn Magee in 2002 and Mayweather in 2007. He was knocked out once as an amateur. In contrast, Pacquiao has been dropped by Rustico Torrecampo, Medgen 3-K Battery, Nedal Hussein, Serikzhan Yeshmangbetov and Marco Antonio Barrera. Advantage: Hatton.

• Defense. Hatton’s balance is suspect and that makes him vulnerable. Pacquiao has worked diligently on improving his defense in the gym and now, he just doesn’t rely on his offense to stave off an opponent. Hatton, on the other hand, has a tendency to get careless when he attacks. Advantage: Pacquiao.

• Heart. When the outcome is on the line, Pacquiao never fails to rise to the occasion because of his big fighting heart. He’s a born warrior who fights not just for himself and his family but for the entire Filipino nation. Advantage: Pacquiao.

• Corner. It’s Freddie Roach versus Floyd Mayweather Sr. and there’s no comparison as to their level of competence. Roach is by far the superior teacher. He’s smarter and craftier. He thinks two or three steps ahead. And he doesn’t engage in useless trash-talking. Advantage: Pacquiao.

• Intelligence. Is there anyone smarter than Pacquiao in the lower weight divisions? Hatton fights mainly by instinct and tries to dominate opponents with physicality. It’s a classic battle between brains and brawn. Advantage: Pacquiao.

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• Experience. Pacquiao has logged 51 fights, including 13 with world titles at stake.

He’s met future Hall of Famers like Barrera, Erik Morales, De la Hoya and Juan Manuel Marquez. Hatton has seen action in 46, including 11 world championship bouts. His only legendary opponents were Kostya Tszyu and Mayweather. Advantage: Pacquiao.

• Suitability. Hatton is comfortable at 140 and the lightwelterweight division suits him. Pacquiao is more of a lightweight (135) although he tipped the scales at 142 against De la Hoya. At the weigh-in, Pacquiao was 138 and Hatton, 140. Advantage: Hatton.

• Aggressiveness. The British Bulldog is aggressiveness personified. He likes to come forward with both fists flailing. Hatton will lean on Pacquiao, tire him out and push him against the ropes where he can inflict damage on the body. He throws a high volume of punches and never takes a step back. Advantage: Hatton.

• Unpredictability. Pacquiao has a wider arsenal of punches than Hatton and because of his skills, can do a lot more in the ring. He can stick and run, slug it out or control the fight from long range with his jab. Hatton might not have a Plan B. Advantage: Pacquiao.

• Size. Hatton is bigger and stronger because he is physically more imposing than Pacquiao. This may or may not be a problem for Pacman. If Hatton makes smart use of his size, Pacquiao could be in for a long night. Advantage: Hatton.

Basically, Pacquiao’s strengths are his southpaw style, speed, conditioning and heart while Hatton’s are his durability, power, suitability at 140 and a nothing-to-lose attitude since he’s up against the world’s No. 1 pound-for-pound fighter. Their S-factors are for Pacquiao, speed and stamina and for Hatton, strength and size.

In the factors of consequence, Pacquiao has 10 advantages to Hatton’s five. My take is Pacquiao will knock out Hatton in the seventh round.