How realistic is Pacquiao-Marquez III?

In the mix of final fights being lined up for Manny Pacquiao’s farewell tour, an unlikely name cropped up, one that some experts believed the four-time world champion would never consider again: Juan Manuel Marquez. Was this just a ploy to keep fans interested in case Floyd Mayweather doesn’t come out of retirement, or a real possibility? Or is it just a footnote to all the fighters whom Bob Arum really wants Pacquiao to fight?

Why would Pacquiao duck Marquez?

The only plausible reason is, first of all, in the last few years, Marquez was the fighter who came closest to defeating Pacquiao, in his last title defense of the WBC super featherweight crown. Near the end of the third round of that fight (which Pacquiao chose to take on before moving up to lightweight to fight WBC champ David Diaz), the Filipino sidestepped a Marquez attack and flattened the champion. That mandatory 10-8 round gave Pacquiao a one-point edge on all the judges’ scorecards, and the belt. Without that extra point, mathematically the fight would just have been a split draw, and Marquez would have retained his title. Perhaps things would have changed, or Pacman would have earned less in his subsequent fights.

In their first encounter in May of 2004, it was a war of wills. Battling for the WBA and IBF featherweight belts, Pacquiao floored Marquez three times in the first round. It started to look like Mexico’s finest boxer-puncher was being schooled by the raw, hard-hitting Filipino. His nose a red blob, the Hispanic hero fought back. Later in the fight, he cut Pacquiao around the right eye, and stymied him with his jabs. Judge John Stewart called it 115-110 for Pacquiao. When it was announced, the Mexican side went quiet, the Pinoys erupted. When Guy Jutras’ tally was 115-110 for Marquez, the Mexicans turned delirious. Marquez had actually improved his standing in the last few rounds. Bert Clements then scored in an anti-climactic draw at 113-113. It was as if the air went out of the crowd. Who wanted a draw?

Pacquiao’s camp sought to investigate Clements’ 10- score of the first round, which they felt should have been 10-6. But the Nevada State Athletic Commission gives the judge the prerogative to choose when to score a round 10-6, so no protest would have prospered.

What has Juan Manuel Marquez done since then? Well, he’s come to the Philippines to watch the “Philippines vs. The World” card and poke a finger in Pacquiao’s face to ask for a rematch. Opinion was sharply divided over what some thought was righteous bravado, and others considered rude invasion of privacy and lack of appreciation for a nation’s hospitality. Still, Marquez believed he won the fight, and Manny handled the awkward situation with relative grace.

Since losing his title to Pacquiao last March, what has Marquez done?

Marquez admittedly moved up to lightweight to follow Pacquiao, and faced off against Joel Casamayor, a deadly Cuban lightweight contender and former WBC and WBO lightweight champion. Casamayor carried into the fight a 35-win, 3-loss, 1-draw record. Casamayor had won his last five fights, including a brutal 10th-round TKO demolition of the previously undefeated Greek-Australian Michael Katsidis. Casamayor out-thought and outlasted Michael The Great, who is 10 years younger. But Casamayor faced a different fate against Marquez.

JMM just dismantled him, clobbering him into submission in the final seconds of the 11th round. The former WBC super featherweight champion picked his spots, countered well, covered up when he needed to, and just relentlessly pounded away at the proud Cuban dubbed “El Cepillo”. That was three months ago. To this point in time, Casamayor (who bears a passing resemblance to Marvin Hagler) still has not scheduled any new fights.

Why should Pacquiao fight Marquez?

Seriously, if Mayweather does not bite into a contract to meet Pacquiao even at 147, the next best thing after Rick Hatton would be Marquez. Dinamita is feared, has proven unstoppable even at a higher weight class, and more than any other Mexican fighter, is dangerous at any weight. It would make compelling drama. Marquez wants to redeem himself, Pacquiao would answer all the doubts. And Pacquiao is a much more complete fighter now than he was even a mere nine months ago. It would be a great fight, with a big chance of being a very short one.

However, the reason boxing analysts feel the fight won’t happen is that Pacquiao would be taking too much of a risk. Marquez hits harder than Erik Morales, is smarter than Marco Antonio Barrera, and has beaten the latter. Pacquiao escaped him twice, but barely. Edwin Valero would be an appetizer, Joan Guzman a snack. Marquez would be a real threat. If Pacquiao wanted to lay it all on the line for a final fight, and Mayweather won’t answer the call, then Marquez would be the blockbuster deal. And Pacquiao could beat him. Perhaps this time, not just barely. Hopefully.