Forget the odds in F-1

SINGAPORE – Oddsmakers were put to shame when Fernando Alonso of Spain, starting way behind at No. 15 of 20 drivers, claimed his first win this Formula One Grand Prix season in a dramatic turn of events at the 61-lap Marina Bay street circuit here Sunday night.

Alonso, 27, never thought he could win after developing engine trouble in the second round of qualifications and failing to advance to the final 10 the night before. His Renault’s fuel pump system broke down and he dejectedly jumped out of the car, his hands on his head.

In two of the three practice runs before the qualifiers, Alonso was dominant so his elimination from the top 10 was a huge letdown. Worse, the two-time world champion had struggled all year with no win, no pole position and no podium finish.

“The race is lost,” said the 5-6, 150-pound Spaniard who began racing karts at the age of three. “You can’t overtake here and I’m starting from 15th so I will be going out just to lap the track but it’s over already.”

Alonso’s forlorn attitude belied the determination he showed once the race got underway.

In the qualifiers, the first round of 20 eliminated the five slowest cars, which were allocated the back five grid spots to start the actual race. The second round of 15 also dropped the five slowest cars, which were given positions 11 to 15. In the third round, the best time for each entry decided the starting order for the top 10 with the fastest car awarded pole position.

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Strategizing begins in the eliminations because under FIA rules, the 10 cars in the third round must start the actual race with the fuel in their tanks at the end of qualifying. Cars are not allowed to add fuel between the start of the third round and the start of the race.

“The key factors that determine strategy are how the weight of the fuel and the performance of the tires affect lap time,” wrote Adam Cooper in Guide to Singapore’s 1st Night Race 2008. “At the stops, the fuel is pumped into the cars at a set rate and the length of time a car is at rest is determined by how much fuel goes into the car at that stop. The top 10 qualifiers have their starting or first stint fuel loads determined before the third round. Those who qualify 11th and below can put in any fuel load they want for the start.”

There is no regulation governing the capacity of the fuel tank so it is up to the teams to decide – the larger the capacity, the more compromises are made when the car is designed, noted Cooper.

A heavy load of fuel will slow down a car but the compensating factor is it will make less pit stops than another with a lower load.

Alonso was pessimistic about winning here because the street circuit featured 23 turns, about eight more than the average in other Formula One tracks, meaning less straights for overtaking opportunities. The sharp curves on a bumpy surface also made it difficult to sustain high speeds.

But in Formula One racing, luck plays a major role in determining the outcome. The variables are plenty and not in anyone’s control so that a driver like Alonzo starting at the back could zoom to the top, depending on accidents, incidents and unforeseen circumstances.

As it turned out, Alonso was the main beneficiary of fate. With early favorite Felipe Massa showing the way from pole position, Alonso took a pit stop in the 12th lap. At the time, he didn’t realize the decision would impact on his eventual win.

In Lap 15, Alonso’s Renault teammate Nelson Piquet Jr. of Brazil hit a wall and a safety car was deployed, slowing the vehicles on the track. Some cars were given penalties for making pit stops before lining up behind the safety car. When the pit lanes opened, Massa went in and suffered his fatal tragedy. He fell from first to 18th after the hose incident set back his time by 120 seconds.

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Then, the race became a cerebral war of timing pit stops, using soft or hard tires and running on fuel loads that had a bearing on speed. Team strategists on computers communicated directly with drivers on the track to advice how to attack the remaining laps. Alonso emerged from the smoke in front at Lap 33. Another hose incident occurred involving David Coulthard in Lap 43 and clearly, the rash of accidents led to some drivers losing concentration. In all, there were three crashes, two safety car deployments and five retirements. Kimi Raikkonen was the sixth driver not to finish but since he left with four laps to go, his time was registered.

The weather probably had something to do with the surprising results. The humidity was 78 percent and the track temperature was 31 degrees. Inside the car, the temperature was at least 40 degrees. The drivers had never been exposed to such draining conditions before.

Writer Leonard Lim of The Straits Times called Alonso’s decision to pit early and use soft tires at the start “a master stroke.” He explained, “Alonso’s coming in for fuel and fresh tires after 12 laps meant he was the sole driver to have pitted before the safety car came out.”

Alonso said the early pit was a strategic move. He figured because of the tricky course, deploying a safety car at least once was inevitable. “We chose to do a very aggressive first stint because we knew that you can’t overtake anyone here,” he said. “We thought about a one-stop strategy but we had some concerns with the brakes. After qualifying, our hopes were gone. It was nearly over but it shows that Formula One is unpredictable.”

Alonso, whose manager Flavio Briatore discovered Michael Schumacher in 1991, was involved in a scandalous fit of apparent jealousy over Lewis Hamilton when they raced for McLaren last year. At the Hungarian Grand Prix qualifying, Alonso blocked Hamilton on the track, causing the Englishman to lose pole position. Alonso was penalized for his violation and Hamilton was awarded pole in the end. Alonso left McLaren to join Renault this year.