Finkel expects Manny to win by KO

There is no doubt in Shelly Finkel’s mind that Manny Pacquiao will knock out Erik Morales in their 12-round rubber match at the Thomas and Mack Center in Las Vegas on Nov. 18.

But whether Morales will retire or not after the fight remains to be seen, said Finkel from New York the other day.

"I can’t tell you if this will be his last fight if he loses but I am sure he is going to lose and it will be by stoppage," Finkel told The STAR.

Although Finkel expects Morales to be in the best shape of his career, he said Pacquiao is just too quick and too strong for the Mexican veteran.

"Manny is faster, stronger and usually both have stamina but Manny gets stronger as the fight goes on and Erik doesn’t," noted Finkel. "We expect the best Morales possible. His pride is huge and he wants to avenge his embarrassing loss to Manny."

Asked if Morales will hit and run like Marco Antonio Barrera did in outpointing dangerous slugger Rocky Juarez last September, Finkel said he’s not ruling out the possibility but insisted it won’t make a difference in the outcome.

Barrera had difficulty outpunching Juarez in their first meeting and in a strategic twist, opted to cautiously box from long range and never engaged the former Sydney Olympian from Texas in their rematch. Barrera was booed by the crowd for an uninspiring performance but the change in style led to the risk-free win on points. The expectation is Morales will try to do to Pacquiao what Barrera did to Juarez.

"I don’t think Erik can change as Barrera does," said Finkel who manages both Pacquiao and Juarez. "Manny has to keep pressing him and eventually, Erik will collapse."

Finkel said Pacquiao has stuck to his routine with trainer Freddie Roach at the Wild Card Gym in Los Angeles and is focused, determined and free of distractions.

"His regimen is not much different but it is consistent and he has been training hard," continued Finkel. "Now that he is on top (of the superfeather- weight division), every fight is important. He cannot afford to lose any."

Finkel said Morales will not be able to survive Pacquiao’s heavy hitting and will fall "from round four on."

Writer Eric Raskin of World Boxing Magazine said the past wars have taken a toll on Morales "who should be able to wave goodbye with no regrets."  He is suggesting retirement for "El Terrible."

"Retirement is not a bad option for Morales right now," said Raskin. "He’s lost three of his last four fights, including two in a row, and has finally been knocked out. It’s not unreasonable to suggest, even though he’s still fairly young (at 30), that all the wars have caught up with him."

Raskin said Morales "pulled out one last great performance in the first Pacquiao match but looked ordinary against (Zahir) Raheem and worn down against Pacquiao."

Robert Mladinich, also of World Boxing Magazine, said Morales is finally showing the wear and tear of so many rugged fights in a 48-4 (with 34 KOs) record. Another devastating loss to Pacquiao will likely signal the end of his career.

"If Pac-Man beats him as easily as he did in their second match, Morales might want to seriously ponder retirement," said Mladinich. "The biggest question mark concerns how much he has left after more than 12 years as a pro, tangling with some of the very best small men in the business. That question should be answered on Nov. 18. If Morales wins, there is no reason to think he won’t be right back at the forefront of the division."

Mladinich said few fighters are as relentless and determined as Pacquiao, whose record is 42-3-2 (with 33 KOs ).

"It might look like Pacquiao is nothing but a go-for-broke brawler with good power and endurance but he’s actually more of a thinking man’s fighter than he gets credit for and has learned to utilize savvy footwork to create punching angles," said Mladinich. "Moreover, his once inconsequential right hand is now almost as menacing as his sizzling left."