Fearful or fearless forecast

Believe it or not, both Slam Magazine and Sports Illustrated picked Miami to make it back to the National Basketball Association (NBA) Finals this season although neither predicted the Heat to retain the crown.

Slam chose Dallas to win the title and Sports Illustrated, Phoenix. The picks meant the two widely-read publications foresee a shift in the balance of power from the East to the West.

Last year, I picked Miami to win it all–even before the regular season started and over 20 games before Pat Riley took over as coach from Stan Van Gundy. I stuck to my forecast as the playoffs got underway and didn’t budge even as Dallas loomed as most experts’ choice in the Finals. I just had the feeling the Heat could and would do it because Shaquille O’Neal plays with a lot of pride.

This year, my feeling is Miami won’t do it again. Riley wants another title and isn’t looking beyond the league’s 61st season. He couldn’t care less about the future because that’s a problem his successor will face. At the moment, Riley is exclusively concerned about now and how much blood, sweat and tears he can still squeeze out of the battered bodies of his aging warriors.

In the offseason, Riley got rid of two Andersons–Derek and Shandon–but retained a bunch of gladiators in their 30s, namely O’Neal, Antoine Walker, Alonzo Mourning, Gary Payton and Jason Williams. If he thinks surrounding star Dwayne Wade with a cast of players approaching retirement will lead to a second straight championship, Riley is dead wrong.

The Heat’s 42-point loss to East sleeper Chicago to open the season last Tuesday is an indication of tough times ahead. The motivation is gone for the Riley’s Old Boys Club to go the extra mile for one more ring. The veterans aren’t as hungry as they were last season. They’re back for another run, not to win a title but to extend their playing careers for one more fat paycheck. They’re nearing the end of the line and they know it.

Riley appears to be in the same boat as his oldtimers. They’re covering for each other at the Heat’s expense and poor Wade has to work doubly hard to compensate for all their foot-dragging.

If Miami doesn’t rise to the occasion in the East, Detroit will.

Pistons coach Flip Saunders piloted the Motor City squad to a 64-18 record last season–best in the league, in case you didn’t notice. Detroit, however, got derailed in the Eastern Conference Finals by Miami in six. This time, there won’t be any Heat from Miami to stop the Pistons from going all the way to the Last Dance.

Saunders lost Ben Wallace to Chicago but got Nazr Mohammed from San Antonio. Two years ago, Mohammed was the Spurs starter when San Antonio beat Detroit for the NBA title. Saunders also picked up sharpshooting Flip Murray for more perimeter firepower. His nucleus of Chauncey Billups, Rip Hamilton, Tayshaun Prince, Rasheed Wallace and Antonio McDyess is formidable and should be untouchable in the East.

In the West, Dallas is the cream of the crop. The Mavs came close to winning their first-ever title last season and were two wins short of doing it. There were painful lessons learned in losing to Miami. No doubt, Dallas will remember the missed free throws, the irresponsible defense and the ill-advised fouls with much regret. But coach Avery Johnson isn’t the type to sulk. He’s the type to bounce back with a vengeance and that’s exactly what the Mavs will do this season.

Reliables Dirk Nowitzki, Jason Terry, Josh Howard and Jerry Stackhouse return for another crack at the title with new hires Devean George, Austin Croshere, Anthony Johnson and Greg Buckner. Gone are Keith Van Horn and Marquis Daniels. Alternating at the slot are Erick Dampier and DeSagana Diop of Senegal. The big news is Diop’s improvement. He’s lost over 40 pounds and finally developed an offensive game.

Phoenix, Houston, Denver and the Los Angeles Clippers will threaten in the battle for supremacy in the West but Dallas should come out on top.

In the Finals, my crystal ball says Dallas will beat Detroit in six.

Postscript. Don’t fail to join the NBA’s "It’s Game Time" contest and win commemorative opening week NBA T-shirts and the official Spalding gameball. You get three chances to win 60 NBA T-shirts and five balls. Here’s how–just send in your entries to the contest for three straight Thursdays, starting yesterday, and you might be picked to win the prizes exclusively from the NBA. Just answer the question for the first Thursday–What is Kobe Bryant’s new uniform number? Send in your answer with your name, age, telephone number, occupation (if student, what school, grade or course/year), address and signature. Place your entry in an envelope marked No. 1, indicating you’re joining the first Thursday contest, and send to The Philippine Star Sports, NBA "It’s Game Time," R. Oca Jr. and Railroad Streets, Port Area, Manila. Next Thursday, we’ll ask Question No. 2. And on the third Thursday, Nov. 16, we’ll ask Question No. 3. You may send in entries for each Thursday question. We’ll give away 20 T-shirts and a ball to winners of Question No. 1, 20 T-shirts and a ball to winners of Question No. 2 and 20 T-shirts and three balls to winners of Question No. 3. In all, we’ll pick 65 winners. As a bonus, write down your choices for the next 10 greatest NBA players to add to the 50 legends of all-time. For more details on the greatest players, refer to yesterday’s column. Two NBA games will be shown live today on Solar’s BTV channel. San Antonio takes on Dallas at 9 a.m. with a replay at 6 p.m. and Denver plays the Los Angeles Clippers at 11:30 a.m. with a replay at 9:30 p.m.