The reasons are clear.
First, Pacquiao soundly whipped Morales in their second meeting last January and nobody had ever stopped "El Terrible" before.
Second, Morales has lost three of his last four outings and at 30, appears to be approaching retirement while Pacquiao, 27, is at the peak of his career.
Third, Morales has outgrown the 130-pound division and is forcing himself to drop weight for what could be his final big payday. Pacquiao, in contrast, is comfortable as a superfeatherweight.
Fourth, Pacquiao is too quick and too strong for Morales.
And finally, Pacquiao is most dangerous when he is under pressure to win and with a newly-inked contract to be promoted by Oscar de la Hoya, he knows there’s a lot at stake in the fight.
But writer William Dettloff said there is hope for a Morales upset despite the odds. In a cover story for World Boxing Magazine (Winter 2006), Dettloff listed five reasons why Morales could pull off a victory in "The Grand Finale."
"There’s an awful lot working against Morales for this fight but if you’re a Morales fan, we’re here to tell you all hope isn’t lost," said Dettloff. "There are grounds to believe he’s not quite done yet, that he just lost a pair of fights that anyone could have lost and that he could win this one."
Here are Dettloff’s five reasons.
•The first fight. Dettloff said Morales exposed Pacquiao’s vulnerability by pounding out a "close but obvious" unanimous decision (the three judges turned in identical 115-113 scorecards) in their first encounter in March last year.
"The outcome was about Morales keeping his distance, staying outside and spearing Pacquiao with right hands whenever PacMan came chomping into range," said Dettloff. "It was mostly a matter of Morales controlling the distance and choreography of the fight. He won the rounds in which he was able to do that and lost those in which he wasn’t able to. He won more than he lost and even stood right with Pacquiao in the 12th round and slugged with him even though he had the fight won."
•Forget the loss to Raheem. According to Dettloff, Morales‚ defeat to stylish Zahir Raheem in September last year was an aberration and shouldn’t count in analyzing the Mexican’s worth. Dettloff said moving up to lightweight had an adverse effect on Morales‚ ability to move, punch and react.
"Morales wasn’t just powerless against Raheem but he was slow, clumsier than usual and lethargic," said Dettloff. "Another reason you can probably throw out the loss to Raheem when analyzing the rubber match with Pacquiao — the styles. Raheem is a safety-first, run-and-clutch grabber. Pacquiao’s style is about as far away from Raheem’s as you can get.
•The first five rounds of the rematch. Dettloff said Morales swept the third, fourth and fifth rounds on the judges’ scorecards in the Pacquiao rematch "by doing just what he had done so successfully in their first fight — keeping Pacquiao at the end of his jab, outmaneuvering him on the outside and running him into straight right hands."
Dettloff said it’s easy to forget how Morales dominated Pacquiao in the early going because in the end, the Mexican was a bloody mess.
•Too much pressure on Pacquiao. Dettloff said Morales isn’t as revered in Mexico as Pacquiao is in the Philippines so the load is heavy on the Filipino’s shoulders. Morales isn’t even expected to win, continued Dettloff, so he’s got everything to gain and nothing to lose.
"Pacquiao has the hopes of an entire nation riding on his back," said Dettloff.
•Too many distractions for Pacquiao. Dettloff said not even Oscar de la Hoya could hold a candle to Pacquiao when it comes to outside interests.
"It’s true that Morales is busy outside the ring also but most of his ventures involve promoting smaller boxing shows along with the musical group he manages," noted Dettloff. "He also has some commercial endorsements in Mexico. But you don’t hear about him suffering from exhaustion or gambling nights away in casinos, as we hear Pacquiao does."
In sum, Dettloff said with the fighter that Pacquiao is, it’s a lot to ask of Morales to win. "But don’t be surprised if he makes it tough," he added. "And don’t be shocked if he pulls it off."