Why Manny will beat Morales

Don’t believe the odds that are being quoted for the Manny Pacquiao-Erik Morales rematch in Las Vegas tonight (this morning in Manila). The numbers are determined by how much money bettors are placing on either fighter, meaning the odds aren’t a reflection of expert analysis.

Pacquiao was initially installed as a 7-5 favorite and now, he’s a 10-8 underdog.

Neither Pacquiao nor Morales could care less what the odds are. They know what they’re capable of doing in the ring and they’d rather let their fists do the talking instead of the bookmakers.

In breaking down the finer points of the fight, consider the strengths and weakness of the protagonists. Here’s how they stack up.

Pacquiao’s strengths are his power, speed, heart, relentlessness and excellent physical conditioning.

There’s no doubt Pacquiao’s punches pack a lot more sock than Morales’. In Pacquiao’s 40 wins, he has scored 32 stoppages or an 80 percent clip. Morales’ knockout rate is 70.8 percent or 34 abbreviated endings in 48 wins. Pacquiao can knock out an opponent with a single punch — the left or the right, preferably the left — while Morales can’t. The Mexican usually scores his knockouts by wearing his opponents down, beating them up and forcing them to surrender.

Pacquiao’s hand-speed is dizzying. He can throw three or more punches in succession without letup. Morales isn’t as quick. As for heart, no fighter has it bigger than Pacquiao whose courage is almost legendary. He is unforgiving in his attack and he’s in the best shape of his life.

Morales’ strengths are his experience, technical skills, being hard to hit, intelligence and durability.

The Mexican turned pro in 1993, two years before Pacquiao, has logged six more fights and has engaged tougher opposition. He went 36 rounds with Marco Antonio Barrera and has faced other world champions like Guty Espadas, Paulie Ayala, In Jin Chi, Kevin Kelley, Carlos Hernandez, Jesus Chavez, Junior Jones, Daniel Zaragoza and Wayne McCullough.

Morales is technically proficient with extremely polished boxing skills. He’s a clever counterpuncher. He doesn’t rush things, is calculating and waits for his opponents to make a mistake. He makes good use of the ring on defense and has a granite chin. Morales has been floored only once — by Barrera on a fluke — and is durable.

Additionally, Morales is physically bigger than Pacquiao and is therefore able to absorb punishment more than the other way around. His body has naturally evolved through the years and Morales is now more like a super lightweight than a super featherweight. Besides, he enjoys a five-inch reach advantage.

Pacquiao’s weaknesses are defense, the pressure on his shoulders, vulnerability, footwork and lack of resiliency.

When Pacquiao lunges forward, he often leaves himself open for a counter because he’s off-balance. It’s a basic flaw in his defense. Pacquiao carries the entire Filipino nation on his back and the pressure is awesome. Unlike Morales, Pacquiao has been hurt and decked. He was stopped by Rustico Torrecampo and Medgeon 3-K Battery and was knocked down by Nedal Hussein, Serik Yeshmangbetov and Barrera.

Pacquiao’s footwork is not as shifty as Morales’ and he doesn’t adjust as smoothly during a fight.

Morales’ weaknesses are his inability to make the 130-pound limit comfortably, a changing regimen in the gym with new trainer Jose Luis Lopez, his career on a downward trend, the lack of raw power and distractions — such as his father Jose’s public outcry after he was dismissed as trainer. Add to that a recent marriage to second wife Sandra Mora and the switch in training camp from the Otomi mountains to the unfamiliar Queretero terrain.

The keys to victory are style, stamina, ability to take a punch, recovery and how referee Kenny Bayless works the fight.

Styles make a fight and it remains to be seen whose style will prevail. Pacquiao is a slugger and plodder who is always charging in while Morales is a counterpuncher, patiently waiting for an opening. The fighter who is able to impose his style in the fight will prevail.

Power is crucial because the likelihood is the fighters will slug it out toe-to-toe. If Morales can take Pacquiao’s best shots without flinching, it’ll be a long night for the Filipino. Adjustments will be vital particularly in the event of unforeseen circumstances like a cut or some other kind of injury or damage. How a fighter recovers from adversity and turns it into an opportunity is a factor that could determine the final outcome.

In a war of attrition, the fighter with more gas in his tank down the stretch will pull it off. Finally, there is Bayless known as a fair arbiter and a straight shooter. If he calls it right, neither protagonist will be put at a disadvantage and it’ll be a fight that only the fighters themselves will settle.

Morales’ last five fights went the distance and he lost two of them. In contrast, Pacquiao’s last 19 wins were by knockout and he has lost only once in his last 17 bouts. The stats indicate that Morales may be slipping.

Morales, 29, is at the crossroads of a long career. He’s coming off a humiliating loss to Zahir Raheem. And clearly, he’s no longer the same fighter who beat Barrera five years ago.

Pacquiao, 27, is ready to explode. He’s on the threshold of becoming the most exciting fighter in the world today, pound for pound. A win over Morales will set him up for a megabuck rubber match to cap a dramatic trilogy or a dream rematch against Barrera. The future looms brightly for Pacquiao but unless he beats Morales, it may not be as rosy.

Pacquiao understands what’s at stake. When the bell rings, he’ll let it all hang out and go for broke. Morales won’t even know what hit him.

If Morales dares to slug it out, the fight will be over in six rounds and it won’t be Pacquiao lying on the canvas in the end.