Mike Keon, training director of the RP athletes for the forthcoming event, yesterday said the country is very much capable of winning the overall title on home soil.
Appearing at the SCOOP sa Kamayan forum, the flamboyant sports official said he based this belief on a study made not only on the "strengths and weaknesses" of the RP athletes but also on their opponents.
"I honestly believe that the Philippines can double the gold medal output that we had in Vietnam," said Keon, referring to the 2003 SEA Games where the Filipinos landed fourth with 49 gold medals.
"And on this basis that the Philippines can double its medal output from Vietnam, I would say that the Philippines has a strong chance to be in second or first place," he said
Keon said the Philippines, which is fielding a total of 743 athletes for the Nov. 27-Dec 5 meet, is good for a minimum of 92 and a maximum of 128 gold medals.
"This is a more realistic assessment," he said as compared to the prediction made by SEA Games Task Force head Harry Angping last September: a low of 109 and a high of 171 gold medals.
As host, Vietnam won the overall title two years ago with 150 gold medals, followed by Thailand with 87 and Indonesia with 53.
Keon said he sees a close battle for the overall championship among three countries, and that there won’t be a "runaway champion" this time.
"I believe that the SEA Games will be a three-cornered fight between the Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam.
But I believe that the real country that we have to be careful of is Thailand.
"The reason I say this is because Vietnam had the hometown advantage (in 2003). It won 22 gold medals in sports that are no longer around, like fin swimming and shuttlecock. They’ve lost those 22 golds. And I was told that there was a great deal of biased officiating.
"Thailand, however, won close to 90 gold medals and they did not have the hometown advantage. So what Thailand did can be duplicated here. So we have to be careful of Thailand and not so much of Vietnam," he explained.
Keon said it wasn’t easy scouting the opposition because the other SEA Games countries have not been open to any information regarding their preparations.
But Keon, the former president of the Philippine Olympic Committee and director of the Project Gintong Alay, said he has "various sources" which he managed to tap in his study.
Keon said despite the fact that the Filipinos started late in training, he noticed the fact that the national sports associations have gone through rigorous training.
Keon said aside from their overseas exposures, Filipino athletes underwent training in China (diving, swimming, gymnastics, fencing, volleyball, football and wushu), Japan (judo), Italy (karatedo), Hungary (canoe-kayak), Korea (archery and taekwondo) and Mongolia (wrestling).
"This could tilt the balance to our favor," said Keon.
"But please understand that there are so many factors at stake. On the day itself, on the competition itself many things can happen. People can get injured. People can get sick. People can collapse psychologically or physically. As long as we get the breaks, we have the chance.
"Some people may debate me on this but I’ve analyzed this as closely as possible. And I whole-heartedly agree that the presence of the hometown crowd will play a big significance. Bringing all these factors together, I really believe that the Philippines has a fighting chance," he said.