NCAA day of decision

Today, the National Collegiate Athletic Association plays the first game of the seniors’ basketball championship series, and the past two champions, current kings Philippine Christian University and previous champs Colegio de San Juan de Letran clash in a rivalry that has been brewing for the last two years. The Knights have swept the Dolphins in their two meetings this season, but the games have been close. Both teams entered the semifinals with a twice-to-beat advantage. Letran finished the eliminations with 13 wins and one loss (to Mapua), and PCU finished second. The Knights finished off the San Sebastian Stags by 33 points, while the Dolphins shot the Mapua Cardinals to pieces. Let’s break down each team’s strengths and weaknesses.

Offense. Inside, Letran has the advantage, simply because of its sheer size and better ability to penetrate. Aside from his unorthodox style of scooping the ball into the basket, 6’7" Letran center Mark Andaya is an excellent passer in crowded situations, and their forward rotation attacks the basket strongly. For the Dolphins, their strength is their outside shooting. Starting guards Mon Retaga and Lisztian Amparado are excellent shooters, with Amparado only getting attention of late. The key will be to get swingman Rob Sanz to shoot more consistently in clutch situations. But the Dolphins’ frontcourt is quicker and more athletic. The deciding factor is that, in a fast-paced game, the Dolphins’ rotation of Gabby Espinas, Beau Belga and Joel Solis gets up and down the floor faster. Overall, if they maximize their offense, the Dolphins are better, but just by a hair. Advantage: PCU.

Defense. Notwithstanding Junel Baculi’s mastery of the defensive part of the game, this may be Louie Alas’ biggest advantage. The league-leading shot-blocking of Mark Andaya has been extremely disruptive of any attempts to attack the basket, while the overall size advantage of the Knights affords them the luxury of matching a quick, physical forward against PCU center and 2004 Most Valuable Player Gabby Espinas. Also, shooter Rob Sanz has had problems with the physical defense of two-way forward Aaron Aban, one of the few players with the quickness and heft to match up with him. PCU’s one Achilles heel is that they used to shoot their way out of trouble last year, and they’ve only had this season to adapt to Baculi’s defensive system. The challenge is for PCU to get its outside game going early, or it will be difficult for them to keep pace with the Knights. Advantage: Letran.

Rebounding. One thing both teams have done extremely well is get the ball off missed shots. Centers Espinas and Andaya are two of the very few in the league who average double figures in points and boards. Espinas in particular, is monstrous off the offensive glass. PCU’s starting center Beau Belga is an underrated rebounder, and runs the floor well off the rebound. Joel Solis, despite having mediocre footwork, provides athleticisim for extended minutes off the bench. PCU has excellent individual rebounders, but Letran, as a team, crashes the boards better. Either way, you don’t get to the finals without chasing down the most missed shots. Advantage: Even.

Teamwork. No question, the Knights’ starting unit displays a lot of cohesion, while the Dolphins’ core of Espinas, Sanz and Retaga complement each other very well. However, when Espinas is isolated and tries to drive in, he leaves his feet and often gets into trouble. And PCU must fight the urge to get shot-happy when their first few three-pointers start falling. For Letran, the balance lies in how much shooting starting point guard Boyet Bautista takes. The former high school phenom has finally broken out of Ronjay Enrile’s shadow, and penetrates and shoots more overall. When Bautista is in the flow, Letran is a very difficult team to stop. Advantage: Letran.

Backcourt. Perhaps it’s the key advantage of PCU, which they have not yet fully exploited. Once Bautista sits down for Letran, the guard production dips, and head coach Louie Alas, uses his deep corps of forwards to fill in the gaps — mainly because of their outside shooting — and give him a size advantage. For PCU, their guards are natural backcourt players, and carry the ball slightly better in tight situations. Plus, Letran has nobody who can match up against the explosive Jason Castro, who’s a jet on the floor. And Sanz is a natural guard who moves down to forward for versatility. Advantage: PCU.

Frontcourt. No question, the Knights have the deepest, most experienced frontcourt in the league. With the exception of Andaya, Jonathan Aldave, Jonathan Piñera and Aaron Aban have been there before, and their experience in the PBL has definitely fed their confidence. With their range, depth and smarts, there’s no question Letran is stronger here. Advantage: Letran.

The bench. Thought both teams have many interchangeable parts, Letran’s advantage is that its players are bigger overall. Unnoticed by many observers is the loss of sub Ian Garrido who, at 6’4", plugged in a lot of holes for PCU last year, and provided attitude and an athletic presence coming off the bench. This season, the main contributor off ther bench is center Joel Solis, with big man Yenz Salangsang getting sparing minutes. The Knights, meanwhile, use more of their role players to show different looks during a game, practically to the last man off the bench. Advantage: Letran.

The missing ingredient for PCU is to trust the system of Junel Baculi, and be more consistent. They have had games wherein Sanz and/or Retaga have disappeared from the offense, and the two departing players cannot afford that at this level. Letran plays with a calm that only championship-caliber squads know, and it shows. The team that gets off to a big start and holds its lead will have a huge advantage. The Knights are a more methodical, versatile team, while the Dolphins have more athleticism. On paper, Letran has most of the aces, but the game isn’t played on paper.

* * *

Catch this week’s episode of The Basketball Show on IBC-13 at 9 p.m.