Pacquiao a 12-1 bet to whip rival

A rude welcome awaits International Boxing Federation (IBF) superbantamweight champion Manny Pacquiao as a highly-partisan Hispanic crowd is expected to pack the historic Grand Olympic Auditorium and cheer lustily for unbeaten challenger Emmanuel (Carnecerio) Lucero of Mexico in their scheduled 12-round title bout in Los Angeles on July 26.

Despite the hostile territory and Lucero’s unblemished record, Pacquiao was recently installed a 12-1 favorite by Las Vegas oddsmakers to retain his crown. The betting line established a $100 bet for Pacquiao will win $100 and lose $1,200 if Lucero prevails. A $100 bet on Lucero will cash in $700.

Bookmakers are convinced of a Pacquiao victory that they’re also quoting odds on whether the Filipino slugger will knock out Lucero before or after six rounds. A $100 bet on a knockout in six or less rounds wins $140 and a $100 wager on a stoppage after six wins $100.

Boxing scholar Graham Houston, writing in the US boxing newsletter Flash (June 20, 2003), predicted a close "sizzling" fight. He picked Pacquiao to stop Lucero "somewhere around the ninth."

But Houston said it won’t be a picnic for the IBF champion, making the fourth defense of the title he wrested from Lehlo Ledwaba on a sixth round demolition in Las Vegas in June 2001.

"Pacquiao has a lot more experience and ... can certainly punch but (he) can be hit, too, and in fact was on the floor in a non-title bout in the Philippines in his last fight," noted Houston.

"Lucero has a lot of confidence, a high-energy style and he showed heart and recuperative powers when he got off the floor to dominate Frankie Archuleta in a crowd-pleasing 12-rounder last year. This is a huge step up in class for Lucero but (he) feels he is ready for it. He throws lots of punches and he has the speed and slightly unconventional style that could give Pacquiao some problems.

"But Pacquiao’s much greater experience gives him a clear advantage. I think Lucero will look to use the ring, hitting and getting away, but the Filipino should find a way to slow him down and nail him."

Making the 122-pound limit could be a problem for both fighters who were beyond it in their last outings. Pacquiao tipped the scales at a hefty 130–the superfeatherweight limit–when he halted Serik Yeshmangbetov in the fifth at the Luneta last March. Lucero weighed in at 127 3/4 when he decisioned Marty Dale Robbins in a six-rounder in Temecula, California, last May.

Lucero, 24, turned pro in 1998 and is the reigning World Boxing Council (WBC) Continental Americas superbantamweight titlist. He was born in Mexico and raised in the Bronx, New York. His record is 21-0-1, with 12 KOs compared to Pacquiao’s 36-2-1, with 27 KOs.

A bleeder, Lucero was cut twice on the head from accidental headbutts and the referee ruled his bout against Angel Chacon a first round technical draw in Texas in July last year. He took a 10-month rest before returning to action against Robbins.

Lucero has been known to use dirty tactics. Three years ago, he brawled with John Lowery in pounding out a foul-filled unanimous decision to capture the WBC Continental Americas crown. They butted, held, and hit below the belt. Lucero appeared vulnerable to the overhand right and lost steam in the late going. He finished with a bad cut on his head.

In March last year, Lucero was decked twice in the first round but stormed back to outpoint Archuleta who went down thrice himself. The hard-earned triumph gained for Lucero a reputation of toughness. His nickname "Carnecerio" is Spanish for butcher.

Pacquiao, 24, left Manila for the US last July 1, two weeks later than scheduled. He is now in Los Angeles, training under the watchful eye of Freddie Roach at the Wild Card Gym in Hollywood.

The Grand Olympic Auditorium is a notorious snakepit for visiting fighters opposing Mexicans or Latinos. Fans who patronize the 78-year-old facility are mostly of Mexican descent and unforgiving when expressing partisanship.

No Filipino has ever won a world title fight at the Olympic. Speedy Dado was outpointed by Freddie Miller for the featherweight crown in 1933 and superbantamweight Bobby Berna was stopped by Jaime Garza in 1983. Pacquiao hopes to become the first Filipino ever to win a world championship fight at the Olympic–70 years after Dado’s bid and 20 after Berna’s.