Forget homecourt advantage

In the National Basketball Association (NBA) playoffs, the homecourt advantage is supposed to be a cushion–something to lean on when a game is on the line. It’s often said that during the regular season, teams fight for the homecourt edge to take to the playoffs.

The hometown crowd is usually referred to as the host team’s sixth man. But curiously, it wasn’t much of a factor in the openers of the four series now raging in the first round of the playoffs. Four road squads won as upsets marked the start of postseason hostilities.

Chalking up "away" victories were Orlando, Boston, Phoenix, and the three-time defending champion Los Angeles Lakers.

In the playoffs last year, there were 29 road wins of 71 total games–a 41 percent clip. Only two teams, however, survived a playoff series without the homecourt edge. Boston trounced Detroit, 4-1, in the Eastern Conference semifinals and the Lakers barely beat Sacramento, 4-3, in the Western Conference finals. Both the Pistons and Kings enjoyed the homecourt advantage over their rivals.

Orlando and Phoenix, a pair of eight seeds, provided the shockers in the openers. The Magic stunned the East’s No. 1 squad Detroit, 99-94, while the Suns shaded the West’s No. 1 finisher San Antonio, 96-95, in overtime. Boston (No. 6) also pulled a surprise in upending No. 3 Indiana, 103-100.

As for the Lakers’ road triumph over Minnesota, it wasn’t unexpected. The Lakers (No. 5) had no difficulty whipping the Timberwolves (No. 4), 117-98, as Kobe Bryant and Shaquille O’Neal combined for 71 points. Poor Minnesota. The Wolves, under coach Flip Saunders, have qualified for the playoffs the last six years but never advanced beyond the first round. It doesn’t look like they’ll crack the jinx this season.

It’s the first time Minnesota has entered the playoffs with the homecourt advantage. It’s also the first time the Wolves are matched up against the Lakers in the playoffs. Last year, Minnesota was blanked in three by Dallas. In previous playoffs, the Wolves lost to San Antonio twice, Dallas, Seattle, and Houston.

Unless Kobe or Shaq breaks a leg, there’s nothing that Saunders can do to prevent the Lakers from advancing to the second round where they’ll meet the winner of the San Antonio-Phoenix duel. Kevin Garnett isn’t Superman and Rasho Nesterovic is just no match for O’Neal down low.

Although the Spurs and Pacers lost their openers, they should be able to rebound. San Antonio, in fact, has evened its series with an 84-76 win over Phoenix in Game 2 and Indiana bounced back to wallop the Celtics, 89-77, to also knot their tie at a win apiece. The Suns and Celtics, however, won’t go down without a fight. They’ll make it tough but in the homestretch, they won’t have enough to hold off San Antonio and Indiana.

In the East, the Pistons will gradually wear down Orlando and survive. Tracy McGrady erupted for 43 points in Game 1 but the league’s leading scorer is only human. With its physical defense, Detroit will outwork the Magic and leave Orlando gasping for breath. The Pistons should move on to face the winner of the Philadelphia-New Orleans series.

The Hornets are no pushovers. Allen Iverson hit 55 points to lead Philly to a 98-90 decision in Game 1 and despite the Answer’s outburst, New Orleans had a chance to steal it on the road in the late going. It won’t be easy for the Sixers to take out New Orleans but coach Larry Brown is too smart to be outsmarted by Paul Silas.

If Iverson doesn’t wear out, the Sixers should be able to handle Detroit, too, and figure in the Eastern Conference finals against either New Jersey or Indiana.

The Nets look too good for Milwaukee even if the Bucks count on Gary Payton and Toni Kukoc. Jason Kidd, Kenyon Martin, Richard Jefferson, Kerry Kittles, Dikembe Mutombo, and Aaron Williams make a solid six-man rotation.

The Pacers, who’re expected to oust Boston, will be a test for the Nets in the second round. But coach Isiah Thomas will fall short of outwitting the Nets’ Byron Scott. It’ll be a heckuva series, anyway, and a Game 7 is highly likely.

Philadelphia versus New Jersey is a dream series. The Sixers were in the Finals two years ago and the Nets, last season. New Jersey, enjoying the homecourt advantage, should win in six.

In the West, the Lakers–after dismantling Minnesota–will find it difficult to get past the Spurs who should dispose of Phoenix in six, assuming they’re healthy. But if San Antonio’s lineup is decimated, the Lakers should cruise. For the Spurs to beat the Lakers, they’ve got to limit Shaq’s touches and put a shadow on Kobe. San Antonio’s problem is it’s a finesse team whose only physical anchor is Malik Rose.

Sacramento will run roughshod over Utah, the sentimental favorite because Karl Malone and John Stockton aren’t tipped to return together next year. Too bad for the Jazz. Utah had its chances in 1997 and 1998 but Michael Jordan just wouldn’t cooperate. The Kings will face either Dallas or Portland in the second round.

The Mavericks should put the Trail Blazers out of their misery. Portland is a team that’s imploding. Players are fighting each other and show little respect for coach Mo Cheeks. Scottie Pippen wants out and there’s talk that he’s headed for a Phil Jackson reunion at L.A. next year. Dallas will walk all over Portland but against Sacramento, the Mavs don’t stand a chance.

So it could go down to a rematch between L.A. and Sacramento in the Western Conference finals. The Lakers–without the homecourt advantage–beat the Kings, 112-106, in overtime of Game 7 in their series last year. Sacramento blew a 3-2 series lead as the Lakers swept the last two outings to clinch. If they meet this year, Sacramento will again enjoy the homecourt edge. This time, the Kings should be able to hurdle the Lakers. They’ve learned their lesson. With Keon Clark and Jim Jackson now in the fold, coach Rick Adelman finally has the depth to destroy the Lakers’ shallow bench piece by piece–Kobe and Shaq notwithstanding.

Our fearless forecast in the Finals is Sacramento over New Jersey in seven.