Going for a four-peat

Coach Phil Jackson must be relieved. The three-time defending champion Los Angeles Lakers are safely back in the National Basketball Association (NBA) playoffs with only eight games left in their regular season schedule.

But will the Lakers go all the way to the Finals?

From indications, it looks like the Lakers will wind up No. 7 in the Western Conference, meaning they’ll face the No. 2 team, most likely the Sacramento Kings, in the first round unless the San Antonio Spurs kick up a late storm.

There will be less chance of an upset in the first round than in past seasons because the duel is a best-of-7, not a best-of-5, affair. But that isn’t favorable to the Lakers whose hopes hinge on the play of two stars Shaquille O’Neal and Kobe Bryant. The longer the series, the more fatigued Shaq and Kobe will be. Remember that to advance to the Finals, a team must win three best-of-7 series. And once in the Finals, there’s another best-of-7 tie to play.

If the Lakers battle the Kings in the first round, it’ll be a rematch of their Western Conference Finals faceoff that went the distance last year. There’s bad blood between the squads. The Lakers and the Kings hate each other with a passion. Shaq likes to call the Kings the Queens because they’re known to be whiners.

Sacramento has been dismissed from the playoffs by the Lakers the last three years so the Kings are aching to get back at the Tinseltown team. This year, Sacramento might finally taste sweet revenge.

The Lakers are far from being a balanced squad. Kobe is averaging 30.2 points, 6.8 rebounds, 5.9 assists and 41.5 minutes. Shaq is averaging 27.6 points, 10.8 rebounds, 3.1 assists, 2.4 blocked shots, and 37.8 minutes. Derek Fisher is the only other Laker averaging in twin digits at 10.4 points and he’s logging 34.7 minutes an outing. There are eight Lakers averaging less than 20 minutes a game, indicating a shallow bench. Starter Mark (Mad Dog) Madsen is averaging only 2.9 points, 3.1 rebounds, and 14.6 minutes.

Shaq, 31, and Kobe, 24, are playing like Supermen. No other player has led the Lakers in scoring in a game this season. Kobe was the Lakers’ top scorer in the team’s first 18 games and Shaq has taken high honors in six of the last seven contests.

If either Shaq or Kobe gets hurt, the Lakers are doomed. That’s how vulnerable they are.

When the Lakers beat Houston by three last week, Shaq hit 39 points and Kobe 31. They combined for 70 of LA’s 96 points. Although the Lakers were reduced to a two-man show, they still prevailed as the Rockets were clueless on how to defend the Dynamic Duo. And the Lakers have won four of their last five to improve to 43-31, a whisker behind No. 6 Utah’s 43-30. LA is also within reach of No. 5 Minnesota which has lost five in a row to drop to 46-29. If the Lakers move up to No. 5, they’ll likely play Portland in the first round.

Four of the Lakers’ last eight games are scheduled on the road. Here’s the calendar–at Dallas tonight, at Memphis tomorrow, Phoenix on Sunday, Dallas on Tuesday, Sacramento next Thursday, at Portland on April 13, Denver on April 15, and at Golden State on April 16.

It’s not an easy schedule. The Lakers play the league’s No. 1 team Dallas twice. They’ve split two games so far–Dallas won the first, 98-72, and LA took the second, 105-103. There’s also Sacramento to take care of. The Lakers have lost two of three to the Kings.

Sacramento boasts a deeper bench with five players averaging in twin digits–Chris Webber (23.0), Peja Stojakovic (19.3), Bobby Jackson (16.2), Mike Bibby (16.0) and Vlade Divac (10.3). Eight players are logging at least 20 minutes a game and five, at least 30. Coach Rick Adelman is getting a lot more from his players on a man-for-man basis than Jackson is from his.

The Kings have won six of their last seven assignments and tote a 52-22 mark. They’ve got eight games left in their schedule, five on the road.

What’s worrying Jackson is the possibility of the Lakers facing the Spurs in the first round. San Antonio has trounced the Lakers in four meetings this season–87-82, 95-88, 103-95, and 98-89. The Spurs have won their last five and boast a 53-20 mark.

Seven Spurs are averaging at least 20 minutes a game but only two, Tim Duncan and Tony Parker, are logging at least 30. There’s a more even distribution of minutes among coach Gregg Popovich’s charges. Three players are averaging in double figures–Duncan (23.7), Parker (15.5), and Stephen Jackson (11.9). In the fringes are Malik Rose (9.8), David Robinson (8.8), Manu Ginobili (7.2), and Bruce Bowen (7.2).

It’s a long, rough road to the Finals. As Rick Morrissey of the Chicago Tribune said, to beat the Lakers, you’ve got to come through Shaq. Jackson admitted that "Kobe knows the reason he gets open and gets the dunks is (because) he knows they’re not going to leave Shaq–that’s one of the things that has been really good at playoff time, those two mesh together quite well."

Jackson hasn’t insisted on playing the triangle too much lately because the Lakers are comfortable beating opponents with a double-barreled shotgun. Shaq joked the Lakers now use the triangle only 62 percent of the time. "30 percent is for Kobe and I get it eight percent," he said. The reality is more like the other way around. Shaq and Kobe are accounting for 60 percent of the Lakers’ points and the balance is left for the rest of the cast.

A disappointment in the Lakers lineup is Robert Horry who played on two Houston title squads before moving to Phoenix and finally, LA. He’s been a part of the Lakers’ last three championship teams. This season, he’s averaging 6.4 points and 29.5 minutes and shooting a lowly 29.5 percent from three-point range.

Rick Fox, Devean George, Samaki Walker (who lost his starting job to Madsen in a popularity contest), Brian Shaw, Kareem Rush, and Fisher form Jackson’s corps of backups for Shaq and Kobe.

Age is a big problem facing Jackson. Horry, Shaw, Shaq, and Tracy Murray are all over 30. How their legs hold up in the playoffs is a cause for concern.

Staying power will be a key factor in determining which team bags all the marbles. In a war of attribition, the team with a shallow bench is at a big disadvantage. Unless Jackson’s shock troopers contribute their fair share, it’s not likely Shaq and Kobe can carry their team to a fourth straight title by themselves. The Awesome Twosome needs help, no matter what Jackson says, and if the cavalry doesn’t come to the rescue, the Lakers might not make it to the Finals.