Two in, two out

Only two games are left in the elimination schedule of the Philippine Basketball Association (PBA) Selecta All-Filipino Cup and three of the four teams on deck are hoping to stay alive in a down-to-the-wire struggle for survival.

In tomorrow’s twinbill at the PhilSports Arena, Purefoods (3-5) takes on Shell (3-5) and San Miguel Beer (6-2) faces Sta. Lucia Realty (3-5).

Two teams are assured of slots in the semis–Red Bull (8-1) and San Miguel. Even if the Beermen lose to Sta. Lucia tomorrow, they’ll still take the second outright ticket to the semis as Coca-Cola (6-3) is locked in at No. 3. Last Nov. 24, the Tigers lost a 94-86 double overtime decision to San Miguel so assuming both teams wind up with identical 6-3 records, the Beermen clinch the second spot by virtue of the winner-over-the-other rule.

In effect, tomorrow’s game against Sta. Lucia is no-bearing for San Miguel. But don’t expect the Beermen to take it easy. A lot of pride is at stake. Remember that in the Governors Cup last year, Sta. Lucia captured the title at San Miguel’s expense via a 4-2 count in the Finals.

The Beermen will never forget the loss because it was Lamont Strothers’ last Finals gasp and San Miguel hasn’t been back in the title playoffs since. Besides, San Miguel hasn’t beaten Sta. Lucia in two previous meetings this season.

For Sta. Lucia, it’s do or die. A loss will obliterate the Realtors’ hopes of advancing to the quarters. FedEx (1-8) and Barangay Ginebra (3-6) are the only teams so far out of contention. They’ll be joined by two more before the quarters start.

If Sta. Lucia beats San Miguel, the Realtors improve to 4-5 and will tie either Purefoods or Shell for the last quarters ticket. The Tender Juicy Hot Dogs and Turbo Chargers will face off in a you-or-me duel in tomorrow’s first encounter. The loser automatically falls by the wayside. The winner gets a free ride into the quarters if San Miguel beats Sta. Lucia or squares off with the Realtors in a knockout duel on Friday for the last quarters slot.

To make it to the quarters, Sta. Lucia must not only beat San Miguel tomorrow but also defeat either Purefoods or Shell in a playoff on Friday.

A Realtors loss to San Miguel will cancel Friday’s playoff. So the only way a playoff is possible is if Sta. Lucia trips San Miguel.

Under this conference’s unique format, the top two teams earn quarterfinal byes and are seeded into the semis while the last four teams are scratched out at the end of the single-round eliminations. The remaining four teams then slug it out in knockout games in the quarters where No. 3 plays No. 6 and No. 4 plays No. 5. There will be no twice-to-beat advantage.

In a quarterfinal pairing, Coca Cola (No.3) will meet Purefoods, Sta. Lucia or Shell depending on the outcome of tomorrow’s games. Talk ‘N’ Text (No. 4) will clash with No. 5 Alaska in the other tie.

In the best-of-3 semis, No. 1 Red Bull will play the winner of the Talk ‘N’ Text-Alaska duel and No. 2 San Miguel will face the survivor of the Coca Cola-whatever showdown. The winners of the two semifinal series will dispute the All-Filipino crown in a best-of-5 affair.

San Miguel has lost twice to Sta. Lucia in as many games this year. In the First Conference, the Realtors beat the Beermen, 75-65, despite the absence of Marlou Aquino and Dennis Espino. Then, Sta. Lucia repeated with a 74-65 decision in the Second Conference, this time with Aquino in harness.

With Sta. Lucia’s life on the line, coach Norman Black wouldn’t mind trading those two wins over San Miguel for another one tomorrow. Aquino will be in the spotlight, for sure. He wasn’t picked to play for the national team in the Asian Games so he’s got a point to prove to San Miguel coach Joseph Uichico.

What’s going for San Miguel is momentum. The Beermen are on a four-game winning streak. The Realtors, in contrast, lost three of their last four assignments and were listless in dropping a 10-point verdict to Alaska last Saturday.

Purefoods has beaten Shell in two of two faceoffs this season. In the First Conference, the Hot Dogs defeated the Turbo Chargers, 92-87, and in the Second, Purefoods won again, 79-75. Both outings were close so it’s no cinch the Hot Dogs will make it three in a row tomorrow.

Purefoods badly needs to get back on track. The Hot Dogs opened the conference on a high note, winning two straight, but they’ve been on a slump lately, losing their last three. Purefoods was massacred by the league’s top three clubs in the elims so that’s probably why the Hot Dogs don’t look too upbeat. Purefoods lost to Coca Cola by 25, to San Miguel by 15, and to Red Bull by 30. But the Hot Dogs are a win away from making it to the quarters, assuming Sta. Lucia loses to San Miguel, so expect coach Eric Altamirano’s boys to give it all they’ve got in trying to end the year the way they started it. If you remember, Purefoods won the First Conference crown in a pulsating seven-game Finals over Alaska.

Shell has won only nine of 30 games all year. The previous season, the Turbo Chargers posted an overall record of 25-26 and qualified in two of three semifinals. So this year has been a nightmare for coach Perry Ronquillo. In the First Conference, Shell failed to advance to the quarters and in the Second, the Turbo Chargers didn’t make it to the semis.

Shell is hungry for redemption. The positive sign is Ronquillo’s charges are finally jelling. They’ve got youth on their side with Cris Calaguio, Edwin Bacani, and Mike Hrabak showing the way. But Alvin Patrimonio and the Hot Dogs are itching to show that when push comes to shove, experience still holds the key to victory.