Today, the Philippine basketball team faces its biggest test against defending gold medallist China in the quarterfinals of the 14th Asian Games at the Geumjeong gym in Busan.
Both squads are unbeaten and assured of seats in the semifinals. But
China has been such a dominant force on the floor that oddsmakers aren’t giving the Philippines much of a chance for an upset.
China’s average winning margin is a whopping 53.8 points compared to the Philippines’ 15. In the eliminations, China crushed Kuwait, 78-45, and Hong Kong, 112-38, while the Philippines beat the United Arab Emirates, 81-56, and North Korea, 89-63. In the quarterfinals, China blasted Chinese-Taipei, 113-50, and Japan, 104-59, while the Philippines defeated Japan, 79-74, and Chinese-Taipei, 83-69.
The glaring difference in the level of play came in the games against
Japan. The Philippines had to scramble from 12 points down to barely beat Japan by five. In contrast, China waltzed to an easy 45-point romp over the same Japanese squad.
Is China unbeatable?
Malaysian basketball team coach Felton Sealey thinks not.
"I think China’s beatable," says Sealey. "China’s problem is it tends to play to the level of competition. China doesn’t play as hard as it should. So it’s possible a team on a good night can beat China on a bad night. You can catch China sleeping. China’s weaknesses are in the backcourt and in the wings. The point guards aren’t creative and there isn’t a true slasher in the team, someone who can play off the dribble."
Sealey should know what he speaks of. He’s been closely monitoring Asian hoops for 18 years as a coach in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Thailand and since 2000, Malaysia.
Asian Basketball Confederation (ABC) secretary-general Dato Yeoh Choo Hock predicted the Philippines to make it to the Asiad semifinals as early as last January but stopped short of identifying the probable finalists. He said it would be "a close fight" for the gold.
Dato Yeoh knows his ABCs for sure. He took over from Moying Martelino as ABC secretary-general in 1998 and has tracked the progress of basketball in Asia for decades. His forecast of the Philippines qualifying for the semis was right on the money.
In Busan, Philippine coach Joseph Uichico hasn’t shown all his cards on the table. He’s got a few aces left up his sleeves. For instance, in four games so far, the national squad hasn’t pressed, hasn’t trapped in the backcourt, and hasn’t defended the middle aggressively. Against 7-9 Ri Myong Hun, the defense hardly doubled as Asi Taulava was comfortable playing the North Korean straight up. No doubt, against Yao, the defense will be different.
In taking on Yao, Uichico’s plan isn’t to wait for the mastadon to grab possession before the defense collapses. He’ll send in his barnacle boys to harass the Chinese ball distributors from the inbound. He’ll want to chop off seconds from China’s shot clock and put pressure on the Chinese shooters to score. He’ll try to stop China’s transition offense and slow down the game to keep the margins close then go for the kill in the final few minutes. He’ll do everything imaginable to prevent China from erecting a big lead that could blow out the Philippines early.
It’s clear that China is now controlled by Yao, not coach Wang Fei. At the recent World Championships in Indianapolis, Wang insisted on starting point guard Guo Shiqiang, much to Yao’s dismay. Yao’s choice was Liu Wei, his principal feeder on the Shanghai Sharks squad in the Chinese Basketball Association (CBA). But after China limped off with only a win in eight outings, Yao berated Wang and began to assert his authority.
In the Asian Games, Liu has played major minutes and Guo hasn’t. Against Chinese-Taipei, Liu collected 10 points and seven rebounds off the bench. Guo didn’t score. Against Japan, Liu hit 17 points and Guo was scoreless.
Curiously, neither Liu nor Guo starts in the backcourt. Wang likes to open with veteran Li Nan at point guard and Zhang Cheng at offguard. Then, he shifts Li to the No. 2 spot when Liu or Guo reports for duty.
Liu, 22, and Guo, 27, aren’t used to playing under pressure. They’re first-timers in the Asian Games. Both are 6-3 so they’re not exactly short. Olsen Racela will have his hands full trying to bottle up either guard.
Hu Weidong, 32, and Li are Wang’s top perimeter gunners. They’re deadly from three-point range. Jeffrey Cariaso and Rudy Hatfield will likely take turns shadowing Hu.
When the offense is centered on Yao, Wang’s options are for the Houston Rockets draftee to power his way to the hole or drop pass to a cutter, usually Gong Xiaobin, or kick out to an outside shooter, Hu or Li. If Yao is shackled, the other low post option is 6-11 Mengke Bateer. Another pet play is a two-man, pick-and-roll for Yao and Li. Power forward Liu Yudong is designated to pick up the garbage off misses from Yao or Bateer.
China has slowed down its offense from previous Asian Games to exploit Yao’s presence. This is Yao’s Asiad debut, after all. Besides, Wang’s stalwarts aren’t getting any younger-Gong, 33, is a remnant from the 1990 Asian Games in Beijing, Hu is 32, and Liu Yudong is 32.
A player to watch is 6-7 Zhu Fangyu who’s Hu’s heir apparent as top gun. Zhu is only 19 years old and the youngest in the lineup.
How Taulava will work his magic inside the paint against the Chinese towers should be a point of interest in today’s game. He’ll want to challenge China’s interior defense early and put pressure on the big men. If Taulava’s lucky, he might even get Yao or Bateer or both in early foul trouble.
But if Uichico has his way, the action won’t be anywhere close to the basket. He’ll bring the war to the backcourt where China isn’t as formidable. If Yao has limited touches, then the defense must work extra hard to extend to the perimeter and close out good looks.
If the Philippines upends China, it will likely be assured of a silver because Kazakhstan shouldn’t be tough to beat in the semis. If China wins, the Filipinos will battle South Korea in the crossover semis so a possibility of playing the Chinese twice looms.
There are experts who claim a loss to China today may be a blessing because beating China once is a possibility, no matter how remote, but beating China twice is an impossibility. Those experts are hoping for a Philippine win over South Korea in the semis and a rematch against China for the gold.
Uichico isn’t looking beyond China today. His focus is to win and let the chips fall where they may. The Philippine team is ready for its acid test. China is heavily favored to win but as Sealey says, the Chinese aren’t unbeatable.