El Niño threatens Bohol

TAGBILARAN CITY, Philippines — The rain-deficit period here in Bohol might even stretch to three more months, threatening the onset of El Niño phenomenon by the fourth month, PAGASA warned the other day.

Henry Hinlayagan of the local PAGASA said he learned from PAGASA-Mactan in Cebu that Bohol can expect three more rainfall-deficit months. If this period runs for four successive months, it would already be classified into a dry spell, which if it stretches beyond four months, it will already be a drought.

The rainfall monitor in the first eight months this year shows that there had been above normal rainfall level from January to July. But this suddenly dropped to an extremely low level this month of August.

In January, the city registered a rainfall record of 123.5 millimeters (mm) or 19-percent above the normal distribution of 104 mm. It remained high in February at 116.4 millimeter (56 percent above normal level), then reached its highest in March at 207.6 mm, or 210 percent above the normal level.

In the following months, the rainfall continued to drop to only 81.1 mm in May (or seven percent above normal level), but rose to 200.1 mm in June (65 percent above normal), and then dropped in July to 171.8 mm (40 percent above normal level).

PAGASA said that, from August 1 to 26, rainfall only totaled 6.8 mm, which Hinlayagan described as very low compared to the average distribution level of 108.2mm., based on the 37 years record.

During the period, it only rained three times—on August 1 that collected rainfall of 6.4mm; the drizzle on August 17 and then on August 24 that brought 0.2mm of rain each—amassing a measly 6.8mm of rain only. No rain was recorded on August 2-16 and on August 18-23. T

The month of August is almost over and it would be impossible to catch up with the 101.4mm discrepancy against the expected 108.2 mm, based on the 37-year average, according to Hinlayagan.

He explained that the concentration of rain is in Luzon and it could be the reason why the Mindanao and Visayas areas have very minimal rainfall. He said he was also able to verify with the forecasting center that a low pressure area is developing now although it is still outside the Philippine area of responsibility, east of Mindanao and is not yet well-defined.

Meanwhile, OIC Provincial Agriculturist Larry Pamugas, announced that Bohol area is ready for cloud-seeding at any time as cumulu-nimbus clouds have been formed since Wednesday. The technical team sent here by the Department of Agriculture is ready to conduct cloud-seeding anytime.  - THE FREEMAN