Forecast: The bigger they are

LAS VEGAS – There’s a saying in boxing often attributed to former world lightheavyweight and heavyweight champion Bob Fitzsimmons – ”the bigger they are, the harder they fall” meaning the heavier fighter will crash more loudly because of his size.

In 1897, Fitzsimmons weighed 167 pounds when he fought James J. Corbett, who tipped the scales at 184, for the world heavyweight title in Carson City, Nevada. Despite the discrepancy in weight, Fitzsimmons won by a 14th round knockout.

In 1902, Fitzsimmons was outweighed even more by James J. Jeffries in a bout for the world heavyweight crown in San Francisco. Fitzsimmons tipped the scales at 172 pounds while Jeffries checked in at 219. Before the fight, Fitzsimmons boasted he would do to Jeffries what he did to Corbett. That was when he said, “the bigger they are, the harder they fall.” Alas, Jeffries won by an eighth round knockout. In their first meeting in 1899, Jeffries stopped the New Zealand fighter in the 11th round.

Tonight at the MGM Grand Garden Arena here (Sunday, Manila time), a bigger Sugar Shane Mosley will take on WBO welterweight king Manny Pacquiao in a scheduled 12-round bout.

Will size make a difference? Since 1999, Mosley has fought in 22 bouts weighing at least 142 pounds. Pacquiao has figured in only four outings where he scaled at least 142. He tipped the scales at 142 for Oscar de la Hoya, 144 for Miguel Cotto, 145 3/4 for Joshua Clottey and 144 1/2 for Antonio Margarito. The last two matches went the distance. De la Hoya and Cotto weren’t counted out. De la Hoya quit on his stool while Cotto was rescued by referee Kenny Bayless. Pacquiao hasn’t scored a 10-count knockout since he pulverized Ricky Hatton in a lightwelterweight bout – with a weight limit of 140 – in 2009.

Mosley weighed in at 154 for his last fight against Sergio Mora. He’ll battle Pacquiao within the welterweight limit of 147. Assuming Mosley makes the weight, he’ll likely climb into the ring at 157 or about 10 pounds heavier than Pacquiao. Will it be a case of the bigger they are, the harder they fall?

In his prime, Mosley was tough to beat. He raced to a 38-0 record, with 35 KOs, before tasting his first defeat at Vernon Forrest’s hands in 2002. Forrest decked Mosley twice in the second round but couldn’t finish him off. Mosley lost on points. In a rematch six months later, Forrest repeated. No other fighter has been able to floor Mosley who has never been knocked out, a tribute to his sturdy chin.

Mosley is a crafty and skillful boxer. When he fought De la Hoya in 2000, Mosley unraveled an impressive repertoire of moves that tarnished the shine of the Golden Boy. Mosley even switch-hit to confuse De la Hoya. Today, Mosley remains the only fighter ever to beat De la Hoya twice.

Mosley’s experience is solid. He has fought in 19 world title bouts, compared to 16 for Pacquiao, and logged 376 total rounds in 53 fights to Pacquiao’s 329 in 57. What makes Mosley dangerous is his one-punch knockout power. Because of his size, Mosley has the ability to dispose of a smaller opponent with a single shot. The same can’t be said of Pacquiao. Mosley’s knockout rate is 85 percent while Pacquiao’s is 73 percent.

Mosley’s weaknesses are his lack of foot-speed, a diminished sense of timing because of slower reflexes due to age and a shop-worn body. If he hopes to beat Pacquiao, Mosley must fight like his idol Roberto Duran – put pressure from the onset, bang the body, crowd, swarm and brawl. Mosley must catch Pacquiao’s attention with his patented left hook to the body followed by a right down the middle. Mosley might consider to simulate what Juan Manuel Marquez did to Pacquiao in their two encounters but it will take a lot of gas in his tank to counterpunch and chase down the Filipino.

Mosley’s advantage in height and reach may not play a vital role. If Mosley chooses to force a slugfest, he won’t rely on his jab and distance fighting. Besides, Pacquiao is more comfortable landing on a taller than a shorter opponent.

As for Pacquiao, his strengths are speed, endurance, stamina and heart. He’s at his peak while Mosley seems to be on the decline. Even as Pacquiao has a deficiency in length, it won’t be a problem if Mosley comes forward to brawl. Pacquiao could get smothered by Mosley’s size and that’s what he must guard against. He has difficulty handling counterpunchers and Mosley knows that.

For Pacquiao to win, he’s got to be patient in the early going and wear out Mosley with a stick-run-stick routine. He’ll run circles around Mosley and create angles with movement. He’ll keep Mosley off-balanced by firing punches from every conceivable and inconceivable angle. It’s not likely Pacquiao will do a rope-a-dope. Instead, he’ll dart in and out to frustrate Mosley and box him silly. Perhaps, starting the fifth round, Pacquiao will step up his attack and go for the finish.

Mosley is a proud warrior and won’t want to go out on his back. He’ll stay standing until the end. Pacquiao will be tested in the early rounds but down the stretch, there will be no doubt the world’s No. 1 pound-for-pound fighter is still unbeatable. Pacquiao will win on points and stretch his streak to 14 straight wins.