Manny to win on points, says 'Ring'

LAS VEGAS – Manny Pacquiao will beat Sugar Shane Mosley by a wide margin on points to retain his WBO welterweight title in Las Vegas tonight (Sunday in Manila). That’s how writer Lee Groves predicted the battle ending in an analytical article recently published in the Ring Magazine, the so-called Bible of Boxing.

Groves examined 20 factors of consequence in determining that Pacquiao has the edge despite Mosley’s advantage in size and strength. Mosley is expected to climb into the ring weighing at least 10 pounds more than Pacquiao – a factor that may or may not be an advantage. With more bulk, Mosley may be able to withstand Pacquiao’s power. But it could make him an easier target for Pacquiao because the extra weight will slow him down.

“Mosley is bigger and stronger while Pacquiao is fresher and faster,” said Groves. “The bigger Mosley will do his best but his best at 39 won’t be enough to counteract Pacquiao’s considerable gifts. Pacquiao will pull away in the second half en route to a wide – and utterly predictable – decision.”

Mosley will be at his most dangerous in the early rounds. His power will be at full potential. Pacquiao probably won’t risk engaging Mosley toe-to-toe. He remembers Mosley wobbling Floyd Mayweather Jr. in the second round of their duel last year. If Mosley will try to force a brawl, Pacquiao won’t oblige – until he’s good and ready. Pacquiao will strike intermittently, darting in and out, wearing down Mosley and staying a safe distance away. Once Mosley shows signs of tiring out, Pacquiao will kick up the pace. Pacquiao shouldn’t rush things. He’ll be patient and methodical because Mosley can’t be taken lightly.

If speed kills in boxing, Groves insinuated that Mosley is due for a funeral. In both hand and foot-speed, Groves gave Pacquiao the edge.

“Pacquiao’s blazing fists have been the foundation of his historic run through the divisions,” said Groves. “Where some fighters produce occasional three and four-punch bursts, Pacquiao strings together six or seven-punch bouquets that are thrown in unpredictable patterns and from angles only southpaws can conjure. Pacquiao’s mobility is another key to his tremendous success.

Pacquiao’s superb footwork creates punching angles on offense and enables him to elude counterattacks on defense.”

What could bother Mosley is Pacquiao’s southpaw style. Mosley lost a pair of decisions to left-hander Winky Wright but showed he’s not too allergic to southpaws by decking and decisively outpointing Luis Collazo. Pacquiao, however, is not an ordinary southpaw. He packs power in both hands. With his southpaw stance, Pacquiao can throw a right cross or hook over Mosley’s left or a left straight down the middle after a right jab. Because he’s deadly with either hand, Pacquiao is like a double-edged sword.

Whether Mosley is able to turn back the hands of time is a question mark. In his prime, Mosley was agile, classy and quick. But is he now just a ghost of his old self? Former world superwelterweight champion David Reid once called Mosley the complete package. “He has power, speed, throws great body shots and comes right back after taking a good shot,” said Reid. “He has the style to be an all-time great.”

Mosley said he’s the type of fighter who has no secrets. You get what you see. “The way I am is the way I am,” he said. “That’s my personality. And I wouldn’t want to be any other type of person. When you act like a person that you’re not, then you’re not really being true. Whatever I feel is what I give to the people. I’m giving the people a part of me. Yeah, if I’m feeling radical on a given day, then I’ll be radical that day. But I’ll always be real.”

Reality is what Mosley will confront in battling Pacquiao – the reality of an aging warrior hoping to defy the odds and repulse the world’s No. 1 pound-for-pound fighter.