For the remaining weeks of this year, two things will dominate our public deliberations: the impeachment drama and the effort to straighten out the mangled 2027 General Appropriations Bill (GAB) that came out of the House of Representatives last Oct. 12.
The impeachment drama is really the equivalent of a flagrant political assassination. Conspirators behind this effort are trying to eliminate the sitting Vice President from participating in the crucial 2028 electoral contest. It is an effort fueled by the very political spoils system we are trying to protect next year’s budget from.
The surveys show there is very little public interest in the impeachment trial where prosecutors are trying to wring some semblance of “betrayal of public trust” from very thin evidence. There is certainly very little public passion invested in this sideshow.
Our people understand this is nothing more than a cynical ploy to exclude from the electoral game the last broadly trusted political figure on the stage. Only a small percentage, the surveys say, believe any outcome from this process will be fair. A bigger number credits the defense panel with having performed better so far – even as the defense has yet to bring out its witnesses. These are the considerations that compelled the mouthpieces of the prosecution to mount a shrill propaganda initiative on the even of the trial’s resumption.
In the end, this is a battle for public support and – following the general contours of trust and job approval curves – the impeachment effort has a steep hill to climb. The clumsy impeachment effort could backfire badly, making Sara Duterte the rallying symbol for all those unhappy with what the country has become.
Our citizens will likely follow the deliberations on the 2027 GAB more intently. The numbers involved here are certainly more compelling. The evidence of malice will certainly be starker.
The 2027 GAB amounts to P7.2 trillion. This is the largest budget to ever be considered. Projected revenues next year will fall far short of the spending plan. Weak economic growth will likely lead to lower revenue collections. We will be forced to borrow well over a third of the proposed spending – and at higher interest rates.
This ambitious budget will probably trigger a debt crisis further down the road. Several former finance secretaries are urging this government to move into an austerity program to avert a debt crisis. Such a program, however, will cause our economy to stagnate. We are caught between the devil and the deep blue sea. Blame this administration’s utter incompetence.
The Senate’s deliberations on the 2027 GAB cannot ignore the findings and recommendations of the People’s Budget Coalition (PBC), an independent network of volunteer groups scrutinizing the proposed budget. This is the first time in our history that civil society groups have been so thoroughly engaged in the budget process. Past national budgets were routinely passed away from public scrutiny. This led to the monumental flood control scandal that blew up on the domestic economy and undermined confidence in our government.
The PBC flagged well over P1 trillion in proposed allocations considered vulnerable to political interference. Among these, BetterGov.ph identified 7,000 district-level projects inserted by the congressmen, “hard pork” for questionable infra projects, “soft pork” for patronage-driven social assistance programs and “shadow pork” for spending items approved even without evidence of available funding.
Social Watch Philippines, also part of the all-volunteer budget oversight coalition, identified P247 billion in programs classified as politically vulnerable. These are projects that have no corresponding entries in the National Expenditure Program (NEP) prepared by the executive branch or have no supporting documents that demonstrate these projects’ necessity.
The massive corruption over three years was attributed to former speaker Martin Romualdez and Zaldy Co conniving with contractors, public works officials and legislators. But the two are now effectively out of action. Romualdez resigned the speakership and is now detained on charges of plunder. Co is hiding out abroad. But the insertions continue unabated.
What this tells us is that the system that runs on connivance is alive and well. The pork barrel, despite having been declared unconstitutional years ago, is alive and well. Corruption is chronic. It is resilient. It is woven into the system of money politics that engulfed the nation.
Few believe the corruption will disappear overnight or in one budget cycle. Few believe the mangled GAB passed by an overwhelming majority at the House will be completely cleaned up. Few are confident that unscrupulous public officers in the executive branch will thoroughly reform.
But the informed engagement of independent citizens’ groups in the budget process is a new development. Hopefully, this will mark an irreversible shift in the budget process towards one where the space for systematic looting of public funds recedes.
2.1 percent
The third quarter GDP numbers have just been released. These numbers turn out to be more disappointing than expected.
Our economy is growing at only 2.1 percent. This is barely above our population growth rate. Our domestic economy is basically stagnant.
We will deal with breakdown of these dismal numbers in the next column. But the headline numbers are disconcerting. The decline in the rate of growth over several quarters suggests the factors underpinning the sorry numbers have taken hold.
The evident economic failure dismays not only our people but the entire region as well.