Her trust ratings are still slightly up in the latest poll, and she remains the frontrunner in the 2028 presidential race in a survey to be released by OCTA Research.
It’s notable though that in terms of performance, Vice President Sara Duterte shed four points in the latest OCTA quarterly survey in March.
The poll was taken at around the time that the House of Representatives decided that the impeachment complaints against the VP were sufficient in form, substance and grounds. The accusations against her were revived in the news, with the allegations made by her alleged bagman Ramil Madriaga tossed in.
VP Sara’s numbers have been pulled down in the past by allegations of corruption. This was during the probe by the House in 2024, when her alleged misuse of her confidential funds, as VP and previously as secretary of education, was first bared.
Her ratings recovered when her father was arrested and sent to The Hague. Also, the billions stolen by the thieves in Congress and the executive from the national budget and flood control funds made her alleged confidential fund misuse pale in comparison. But the public works mess also heightened public awareness – and concern – over the impact of corruption on everyday life in these islands.
In all reputable surveys, corruption now ranks second or third among the top concerns of the people. So corruption issues can pull down the popularity of even the most preferred presidential bet in 2028.
This should be food for thought to the political opportunists who want to ride on the coattails of the person they perceive to be a shoo-in for the 2028 presidency.
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VP Sara formally announced her presidential bid quite early, last Feb. 18, brushing aside warnings that such early declarations in this country even by initial frontrunners have mostly ended in defeat.
A common observation was that the announcement was a not-so-subtle warning to House members who were deliberating on the impeachment complaints against her, that retribution awaits in 2028.
It failed to sway the House committee on justice, which is set to hold another hearing today on the impeachment complaints, this time focusing on the financial status of the VP and her husband, lawyer Manases Carpio.
But will the warning block a vote for impeachment when it goes to the House plenary? Only one-third of the membership – at least 102 – is needed to send the case to the Senate for trial. The complainants and House endorsers are confident that they will get the required votes.
Even the VP’s camp seems to see the case going to the Senate, even as it tries to get the Supreme Court to stop the House proceedings.
The Duterte camp believes it has a better chance at the Senate. In the previous 19th Congress, senators led by Francis Escudero sat on the original impeachment complaint, and then happily accepted the SC ruling (partly based on fake news), which invalidated and rewrote the process.
Today, even some members of the new majority have noted that the May 2025 midterms swelled the ranks of pro-Duterte senators. But this presumes that senators will vote based on their political alliances rather than the merits of the Articles of Impeachment.
Salvador Panelo, former chief legal counsel and spokesperson of Rodrigo Duterte, sees only four senators – and at best, six – voting for conviction and the VP’s ouster (and removal as presidential contender).
The projection has drawn strong reactions from two of the four – Senate chief Tito Sotto and President Pro Tempore Panfilo Lacson – who asked how Panelo could know how they would vote on a case that hasn’t even been presented yet to the Senate.
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Considering the track record of most of the senators, Panelo must have simply based his projection on realpolitik: the senators will go with the most likely winner in 2028.
This presumes that Sara Duterte will remain the 2028 frontrunner. Her numbers, however, have been slipping since 2024. Her father’s arrest and detention in The Hague boosted her ratings, but the numbers have since plateaued.
On “Storycon” last Monday on One News, we asked OCTA president Ranjit Rye for possible reasons for the four-point dip in the VP’s performance ratings. Among the possible reasons he cited was Malacañang’s jab at the VP’s “world tour” and the need for public officials to work rather than go on frequent vacations.
The VP’s latest performance rating now stands at 50 percent in the OCTA survey – down from 54 in the last quarter of 2025.
Fifty percent doesn’t warrant smugness and complacency. Especially with the impeachment process just getting started.
What could work for the VP is having the Marcos administration dragged into a corruption scandal bigger than what’s swirling around her. And the government bungling big-time the response to the fuel crisis.
What’s working for the government is its apparent pursuit of BBM’s (former?) favorite cousin, ex-speaker Martin Romualdez, who wants to leave the country for two weeks ostensibly for a follow-up check-up in Singapore on his angioplasty.
If BBM wants to prevent his worst nightmare from becoming his successor, his government must grab every opportunity to win credibility and public trust.
It must be shown that the VP is not invincible. And that nothing is inevitable in Philippine politics.