America has the world’s greatest army. In terms of firepower, manpower, discipline, strategy and global experience, no other nation can match the United States army.
Yet, that same army has lost all the three greatest wars after World War II (1939-1945) – the Vietnam War (1955-1975; 211,000 American lives lost), Afghanistan War (2001-2021; 22,300 American lives lost) and the Iraq War (2003-2011; 36,710 American lives lost).
Today, the US has hit a stalemate (a quagmire, to use the word of my fellow columnist Alex Magno) in the largest, most debilitating war of the 21st century – the Iran War (28 American lives lost so far). From the American revolution to the current Iran war, the US has lost more than two million American lives.
The most expensive wars were the Iran and Afghanistan wars, at $4 trillion to $6 trillion. The Iran war is costing America $1 billion a day – money that can feed three million malnourished Filipino children every day for one year.
Donald Trump is not sure of winning the Iran war. For two main reasons:
One, he does not know or has not articulated exactly why the US and Israel bombed and invaded Iran – a) regime change? (done); b) eliminate Iran’s capacity to build a nuclear bomb? (partly done); c) hegemony? (being done); or d) ego and power trip? (done). “Trump is a psychopath,” says Jeffrey Sachs, an economist and former UN advisor.
Two, the US army is not calibrated to manage or even win an extended war following a quick and decisive operation. Proof? The failure of the Vietnam (20 years), Afghanistan (20 years) and Iraq wars (eight years).
“At the tactical level – the realm of vicious firefights and night raids – the courage, discipline and lethality of our Americans in uniform stand with anything accomplished in the Civil War, both world wars, Korea or Vietnam,” says Daniel Bolger, a retired lieutenant general, who commanded troops in both Iraq and Afghanistan, in his book, “Why We Lost.” He notes that the US military’s core strength is rapid, decisive conventional operations.
In Iraq and Afghanistan, “we were drawn into nasty local feuds, and we took on too many diverse foes, sometimes confusing opponents with supporters and vice versa. Then we compounded that mistake by misusing our conventionally trained military to comb through hostile villages looking for insurgents. Once it became evident that we would not stay, something we knew in Iraq by 2008 and in Afghanistan by 2011, we continued to press on in vain hopes that something might somehow improve. Our foes waited us out,” writes Bolger.
In military schools, writes Bolger, “instructors introduce the ancient wisdom of Sun Tzu, the Chinese general and theorist who penned his poetic, elliptical, sometimes cryptic Art of War 22 centuries ago. Master Sun put it simply: ‘Know the enemy and know yourself; in a hundred battles you will never be in peril.’ We failed on both counts. As generals, we did not know our enemy – never pinned him down, never focused our efforts and got all too good at making new opponents faster than we could handle the old ones. We then added to our troubles by misusing the US Armed Forces, which are designed, manned and equipped for short, decisive, conventional conflict. Instead, confident of our tremendously able, disciplined troops and buoyed by dazzling early victories, we backed into not one but two long, indecisive counterinsurgent struggles to which our forces were ill-suited.”
In invading Iran on Feb. 28, the US and Israel did spectacularly. Killed were Iran’s supreme leader of 37 years, Ali Khamenei, in the first hour of attack at noon of Saturday, his wife, his grandson, son-in-law and daughter-in-law; and some 40 top military and defense officials.
“But the Iranian regime is vast, with sprawling religious authority, layers of officers across various armed branches and militias and widespread control of the country’s economic assets. Even if the United States and Israel continue mowing down newly replaced leaders for weeks, the IRGC and various armed forces and their economic assets will not just melt away, even if they eventually fracture,” says a Brookings Institution study.
The selection of Khamenei’s son, Mojtaba, as the new Iran leader, says Fareed Zacaria, lengthens the war, “they are not going to absolutely surrender.” Hence, Brent has reached $100 per barrel, topping at $110, up 50 percent from the day before Feb. 28.
“The regime’s?radical core is taking charge,?evidenced?by attacks on Arab neighbors?and seems to? be? entrenching ?itself rather than seeking?an accommodation with the Trump administration,” notes Brookings. “The Iranian leadership is in a radical mood,?manifested by its conduct of the prewar negotiations?with Washington and its policy of launching missiles at the Arab Gulf countries (including friendly Oman) and seeking to hit Cyprus. This is clearly an ill-calculated effort to persuade the US ?and the international community that the ?war’s? continuation?is too costly and too dangerous. It is ill-conceived?and is likely to be counterproductive. Should the war end with a weakened version of the current regime in power, its Arab neighbors will have to rethink the policies they pursued in the last few years (treading a fine line between the United States and Iran).?”
One country that needs badly to rethink its options to cope with the Iran war is the Philippines. Based on what I have seen from Senate and House hearings on the issue last Friday and yesterday, our government has been ill-prepared for this war. Tactically, the coping measures so far are simply shoot from the hip – reduce or remove the excise tax, which is P6 to P10 per liter of refined petroleum products; and try to tap other sources of fuel and refined petroleum products, countries like Australia, Canada, Latin America and even Africa (not viable).
China? China supplies roughly 25-30 percent of the Philippines’ refined petroleum imports, diesel, gasoline and jet fuel. Beijing stopped exporting those. And we have been quarreling with China over islets that disappear from view some months of the year in the West Philippine Sea.
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