"Kill the chicken to scare the monkey” is among China’s cornerstone strategies to fulfill its hegemonic ambitions in the Indo-Pacific. It is derived from a Chinese proverb that refers to taking aggressive actions to subdue a weaker opponent to intimidate a larger, more powerful adversary. In this case, the weaker opponent is the Philippines and the larger adversary is the US.
China has three objectives in employing this strategy. The first is to send a signal to the other claimants of the South China Sea that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is willing to resort to aggressive actions to assert its claims.
The second is to pander to the Chinese population. See, there exists a social contract between the CCP and the Chinese people. In exchange for surrendering their rights and freedoms, the CCP guarantees increasing personal wealth for Chinese households. But with the Chinese economy now in shambles and personal wealth diminishing, the CCP has to show that it is doing something substantive for its people. Hence, reclaiming “historical territories” has become the national consolation prize.
Third and most significantly, to send a signal to the US that the CCP will not relent in its campaign for territorial expansion.
In pursuit of its strategy, China has waged increasingly aggressive attacks on Philippine vessels in both the Panatag and Ayungin Shoals. A total of 10 attacks have been recorded since August 2023, each with increasing intensity.
The worst attack happened in June 2024 when a Chinese Coast Guard vessel deliberately rammed a Philippine re-supply ship in Ayungin Shoal to block it from fulfilling its mission. Chinese coast guards boarded the Philippine ship, armed with axes and machetes, trashed Philippine equipment and ceased weapons and communication gadgets. One Filipino lost his thumb in the confrontation.
The situation was so intense that both parties agreed to de-escalate through diplomatic dialogue. The very next day after the diplomatic agreement was signed, the CCP deployed its largest coast guard vessel in the shoal to intimidate Philippine forces. China’s actions cemented what everybody knows – that the CCP cannot be trusted to honor diplomatic agreements, pacts or treaties.
Throughout these aggressive actions, the Philippines has never relented and the BRP Sierra Madre remains in Ayungin Shoal as a military outpost and symbol of Philippine sovereignty over the territory.
Chinese desperation and its failure of strategy
Former president Duterte shivered in fear at the very shadow of Xi Jinping and his officials. Consequently, Mr. Duterte succumbed to Chinese demands. His cowardice and treachery is now well exposed and the Philippines has turned a new page.
Under the leadership of President Bongbong Marcos, the Philippines has shown formidable resistance and remarkable bravery in the wake of intense bullying. It is a classic “David and Goliath” story where China finds itself rattled by Philippine resistance. No other country has faced China this way. The fact that the Philippines is holding its ground and refuses to be subdued shows that China’s strategy is failing. Its increasing aggression is akin to lashing-out in desperation. China has failed to assert its dominance.
In fact, the Chinese strategy has backfired. Rather than subduing the Philippines and intimidating the US, it has drawn both nations together in a tighter relationship that traverses military, economic and diplomatic cooperation. Exacerbating matters for China is that the Philippines has expanded its axis of cooperation with Japan and Australia, with whom it now has a Reciprocal Access Agreement (RAA) in place.
Philippine bravery
During the ASEAN Summit back in September 2023, President Marcos spoke directly at China and made his position clear.
He said that the Philippines condemns the illegal grab and militarization of the South China Sea; that the use of coast guards and maritime militia vessels for coercive activities is a cause for global concern; that peace and stability in the maritime domain can only flourish in a regime anchored on the rule of law. Above all, that the 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea is the primordial framework within which activities in the maritime domain is to be conducted.
In his State of the Nation Address of 2024, President Marcos said, “The Philippines will never yield an inch of our territory.”
The Philippines has since supported its words with actions. It has committed to a military buildup. President Marcos has increased military spending by 40 percent on top of a $35-billion package for new weaponry. The Philippines has expanded the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement with the US, which grants America access to nine military bases. This is on top of the ratification of Reciprocal Access Agreement (RAA) with Japan and Australia and soon, with the UK, France and Canada.
The Philippines is the only country in the region that openly and continuously confronts China’s territorial claims and militarization of the disputed waters. It has filed 405 diplomatic protests, all of which eroded confidence in China’s leadership. Further, the Philippines is the only country that names and shames China for its bad behavior. Live footages of China’s aggressive actions on international media caused numerous countries to condemn the communist nation.
Both ASEAN and the western world have a stake in maintaining freedom of navigation and overflight in the South China Sea. It works to every nation’s collective interest not to have a single nation gain unilateral dominion over the waters through militarization.
The Philippines is bravely battling the regionally bully on behalf of all nations which have a stake. It may not have the military might yet, but it is not lacking in will, resolve and bravery.
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Email: andrew_rs6@yahoo.com. Follow him on Twitter @aj_masigan