The period for filing certificates of candidacy begins today. Few significant surprises are expected. This will be a set-piece midterm elections predictably dominated by the ruling coalition.
The only electoral coalition that bothered to stage what was supposed to be a convention was the “Alyansa Para sa Bagong Pilipinas,” a loose coalition of political parties aligned with the administration. Each of those component political parties are, in turn, centered around a major powerbroker.
Those expecting a slate composed of new faces, new voices and new ideas from a political formation that, after all, promises a “Bagong Pilipinas,” were disappointed. The administration senatorial slate is composed of old names and is powered by the old dynastic politics whose stranglehold over our politics is at its tightest.
There is no sunrise here, no dawning of a “new politics” that an administration so deeply entrenched might afford to experiment with. There is no hint of a new generation of political leaders in its fold.
From at least a technical point of view, this is some sort of “dream team.” It is composed of candidates with high name-recall. The ticket distributes representation among the factions supportive of the President. It is concededly a well-balanced roster – although composed only of politicians who are already there.
There was no process for sifting through a list of possible candidates. There were no consultations with constituencies about who might best represent their concerns. Evidently, the final slate was handpicked by President BBM himself – and principally on the basis of surveys that measure top-of-mind candidates.
All of the senatorial candidates put forward by the administration coalition rate well in these surveys – but only because these surveys tend to favor those that already have high name-recall. Only two sitting senators seeking reelection – Bato de la Rosa and Bong Go – were not included. They are seen as allies of former president Rodrigo Duterte. In the present scheme of things, they could not be considered reliable allies of the President.
The sitting President and the two other that preceded him put no effort at all at party-building. As a consequence, what we have are shells rather than parties. All of them are dependent on the principal powerbrokers who lead them. All of them are inhabited by turncoats who shift parties on the dictate of convenience and on the impulse of opportunism.
This is what we get from a personalistic system with no real organized parties. The so-called multi-party system dictated by the 1987 Constitution produced a no-party system. What we have are alliances between regional powerbrokers and dynasts, all of them fueled by the cornucopia of state resources.
The “opposition” is no less guilty of neglecting party development.
The Liberal Party (LP), presenting itself as the “opposition,” could only manage to put together a slate of two candidates for the Senate. One is not even a member of the party.
Chel Diokno, listed as the third senatorial candidate of the LP, decided to follow the dictate of prudence. He signed up with the Akbayan party-list group and is now its first nominee. His chances of finally winning a legislative seat is now a hundred times better than if he remained a senatorial candidate.
Bato de la Rosa and Bong Go are now political orphans. Sara Duterte announced she will support no senatorial ticket. Former president Rodrigo Duterte, presumably busy administering the estate of detained pastor Apollo Quiboloy, has not been heard of at all while his two protege senators fight for their political life.
The mass organizations of the national democratic tendency have seized the opportunity produced by a vacant political stage, announcing they will field their own slate of candidates for the Senate. They have announced a list of mostly tired old names from the Bayan Muna circuit to constitute their senatorial bid.
No one seriously expects any of the Bayan Muna candidates to seriously threaten a win. This political stream has been rapidly losing its voting constituency as the Maoist guerrilla army loses its hold over once captive communities and as local political lords have realized the profitability of fielding their own party-list groups.
The work of the NTF-ELCAC seriously eroded the ability of the traditional political left to hold sway over communities and use this as a trading card in winning support from traditional politicians. No wonder the leftist groups hate the NTF-ELCAC and exert whatever remains of their party-list presence to defund this institution.
The low probability of winning in the Senate race is not something that will deter the leftists from fielding their own unlikely slate. They have the mentality of suicide bombers.
Too, fielding their obviously worn out personalities is their last chance to regain any relevance in our politics. With the underground components of this political stream faring badly, an electoral presence will allow them to hoist a rallying point for what remains of their mass support.
In midterm elections, predictability is the name of the game. No political contest will be as predictable as this one is shaping up to be.
Even the bi-factional character of our local politics will not produce a suitable challenge at the national stage. Political rivals in the localities will simply align with one or the other nominal political party aligned with the administration coalition.
In doing so, they may continue to play out their generational rivalries without disrupting the hegemony of the ruling coalition.