The filing of certificates of candidacy for the 2025 midterm elections is just three months away.
So far, we’re seeing the rats deserting the sinking ship of what was once the mighty Partido Demokratiko Pilipino-Laban, and jumping over to the new ruling party and coalition headed by who else, the person in power. Soon the Dutertes and a handful of stragglers could be the only ones left in the PDP-Laban for the midterm races, which are usually dominated by administration candidates.
The resignation of Vice President Sara Duterte from the Cabinet is hastening the exodus from her father’s party, to which she doesn’t belong. Meanwhile, her regional party, the Hugpong ng Pagbabago, is in limbo.
Also in limbo is the pink / yellow traditional or classic opposition.
The progressive Makabayan bloc describes itself as the “true opposition” – as opposed, I guess, to the Duterte-led anti-Marcos opposition.
Makabayan has announced that it will be fielding a full slate for the 12 open Senate seats in the 2025 race. Among the candidates is ACT Teachers party-list Rep. France Castro, who has said the other bets will be taken from the marginalized sectors.
Castro said Makabayan is exploring a coalition with the Liberal Party, currently headed by Albay 1st District Rep. Edcel Lagman, to draw up the true opposition ticket.
Among the LP’s expected bets for the Senate in 2025 are former senator Kiko Pangilinan plus non-LP members Bam Aquino and human rights lawyer Chel Diokno.
Former senator Leila de Lima, currently the LP spokesperson, has said she does not intend to run for any post in 2025. Former VP Leni Robredo will reportedly seek a local post in Camarines Sur.
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Besides drawing up a strong slate, the traditional opposition will need strong messaging.
The Duterte brand is strong because it has a clear stand on a specific issue: an unapologetic, iron-fist approach to criminality. It offers public safety.
The Tulfo brand is built on action agad – something the red tape-entangled bureaucracy can’t deliver – on a broad range of concerns. It offers speedy solutions to problems such as marital infidelity and favoritism in government ayuda distribution.
What’s the traditional opposition’s brand? Beyond highlighting problems such as corruption, it should offer solutions. When it courts votes, it should be able to provide a clear answer to the question: what’s in it for me? Never mind if delivering on the promise is iffy.
Duterte promised to eradicate the drug menace in six months. BBM promised rice at P20 a kilo and recovery – babangon muli – from the wasteland created by the pandemic and his UniTeam running mate’s father.
For a long time, the “yellow” bloc was identified with anti-corruption, anti-oppression and good governance. This, unfortunately, was successfully altered by their opponents, helped along by issues such as the Typhoon Yolanda response, the Mamasapano debacle and the MRT-3 extortion scandal.
Yellow became associated with incompetence and elitist arrogance, and a holier-than-thou stance that alienated many in a nation where corruption is a way of life.
By 2019, Mar Roxas, the point man in the Yolanda debacle, would not even wear yellow or join the campaign of his Otso Diretso teammates. By 2022, the anti-Duterte opposition found it necessary to rebrand, from yellow to pink, but again with a focus on good governance and an end to human rights violations.
Opposition disunity continued through the 2022 campaign. There were reports that Robredo was willing to join unity talks and respect whoever would be chosen as the lone opposition candidate, as pushed by certain folks who argued that it was the only hope of defeating the Marcos-Duterte alliance. But if BBM became the standard bearer of the administration coalition, Robredo reportedly wanted to be the opposition candidate.
We all know what happened next; divided they fell.
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The eight other non-administration presidential candidates in 2022 garnered combined votes of nearly 7.15 million. Even if these were added to the kakampinks’ 15 million, the combined forces of the Solid North and the Dutertes’ Mindanao (and much of the Visayas) would still have trounced them.
Still, the opposition should learn from the Marcoses, who play the long game and never say die.
Two years after that dramatic defeat in 2022 (helped along, if you ask Eliseo Rio, et al, by an unauthorized IP address in the vote count), people are wondering what has happened to the pink wave.
Is it dead? Is it just dormant, waiting to erupt back to life? Those who are frustrated over the current state of the opposition hope it won’t sleep for 600 years, like Mt. Pinatubo.
Over 15 million people voted for Leni Robredo. That’s nothing to sneeze at; Rodrigo Duterte won the presidency with 16.6 million votes.
The kakampinks seem like a pretty passionate lot. To this day I still see pink Christmas lanterns from the 2022 race adorning several houses in my part of town.
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At this point, unfortunately, with the opposition or independent minority forces already too small, it looks like a unified ticket is again out of the question.
Some quarters are hoping that Robredo, Sen. Risa Hontiveros and De Lima will get together and revive the pink wave for the 2025 races.
These quarters point out that the 31 million who went for the UniTeam candidates are now divided, and no one can tell how many of them might be seeking other blocs or personalities to support.
Despite the exodus from Rodrigo Duterte’s PDP-Laban, his brand remains strong. Sara Duterte garnered even more votes than BBM in 2022, which was seen as a show of support not for the humorless daughter but for the charismatic father.
As we are seeing, the Senate can throw a monkey wrench into the legislative agenda of the administration. The Dutertes know this, and it looks like they are seriously considering fielding their entire clan, if possible, as Senate bets next year.
It will be a crowded race for the Senate. Besides the Dutertes, the opposition will be battling what Speaker Martin Romualdez has described as “the most powerful political force” – referring to the alliance between his party the Lakas-CMD and his cousin BBM’s Partido Federal ng Pilipinas.
With the UniTeam breaking apart, and disenchantment over both feuding camps, opposition forces must get their act together ASAP and offer an attractive, coherent alternative.