When I arrived in Manila at the start of 2012, HSBC Bank had just published a report forecasting that the Philippines would be the world’s 16th largest economy by 2050.
The optimism in that forecast was founded on “powerful demographics” and the presumption of sustained 7% average annual GDP growth.
Of course a presumption is far from a guarantee. But as I prepare to depart Manila tomorrow at the conclusion of my posting as New Zealand Ambassador, I feel I have experienced more than a glimpse of the potential that this country holds.
It seems to me that I have been fortunate to serve in the Philippines during an important time for this country. The economy has been notching impressive headline growth figures, in recent times second in Asia only to China. And the bullish mood in the Makati business district has certainly been noticed by New Zealand visitors. There’s no doubt that overseas investors also want to see continued improvement in governance, anti-corruption and the business environment more generally. President Aquino’s “straight path” agenda has helped draw attention to the Philippines.
But to realise HSBC’s bullish forecast, all efforts will need to be sustained. In continuing down this path, I know that the Philippines has a supportive partner in New Zealand. Not only in times of extreme need – I will never forget the experience of travelling to typhoon stricken areas and the bravery of people affected by devastation – but on an everyday basis, often unnoticed. Not only in our aid programme, but in growing business links that will generate more jobs in both countries, and in the migration patterns that are building a bridge between our nations.
The official statistics show enormous potential upside. A country of 100 million people, still with significant numbers in poverty, but with a well-educated and adaptable workforce that has already won a worldwide reputation. A population with a median age of only 22 years — increasingly connected to each other, to the media, and to the world by fast evolving technology. Everywhere I have travelled in the Philippines, I have been impressed by the young people — from the university students that accompanied me in Palo, Leyte a mere 17 days before Yolanda, to the scholarship students returning from New Zealand at the completion of their studies, to the young rugby players of the Tuloy Don Bosco orphanage performing with pride their fierce haka. Given opportunity, who would bet against these people realising even the most ambitious forecasts? Imagine the possibilities over the coming decades.
New Zealand may seem to some people a small and distant partner. But in a world that is becoming more connected, I believe that we complement the Philippines very well — whether in world class agriculture, geothermal energy, BPO opportunities, or as supporters of global rules to underwrite our common economic wellbeing and security.
I feel incredibly privileged to have had the opportunity to serve as my country’s Ambassador to the Philippines at a relatively early stage in my career. I am very grateful for the warmth and openness with which I have been welcomed here and, what’s more, I hope to come back in 2050 to visit one of the world’s largest economies. As the Maori phrase goes, ka kite anõ — see you again!
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(Reuben Levermore is the Ambassador of New Zealand. Tweet him at @NZinManila.)