It’s a worst-case scenario, but Philippine seismologists aren’t the only ones who have warned that Metro Manila faces a high risk of being hit by a powerful earthquake. Foreign think tanks and aid agencies have also warned in recent years that the National Capital Region is not prepared to deal with such a catastrophe.
The other day Renato Solidum of the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology warned that a 7.2-magnitude earthquake could trigger a tsunami as high as 18 feet that could damage about 100,000 residential structures, cause massive flooding and fires and isolate Metro Manila.
Tsunamis were recorded in the area that is now Metro Manila in November 1828 and June 1863, Solidum said. Phivolcs has warned for many years that a movement in the Marikina Fault, which cuts across Metro Manila from east to west and on to Cavite, could cause massive destruction.
Studies have shown that Metro Manila is not prepared to deal with such a calamity. Experts have warned that fires could run out of control and resources to rescue victims from collapsed buildings would be inadequate. Water and food supplies could be cut off. Communication, electricity and transport facilities could be seriously disrupted, and even rubble clearing is expected to be slow.
Tacloban City showed the impact of a colossal natural catastrophe. The city never expected such a powerful storm surge and there were people who ignored warnings from weather forecasters about an approaching monster storm. City residents suffered from a double whammy in the disastrous initial response of the government.
In the case of Metro Manila, experts have issued warnings many times in the past years about the risks posed by the Marikina Fault. Studies have specified the weaknesses that could pose the worst problems in emergency response.
With an estimated 12 million residents as of the last official count, Metro Manila cannot afford to be unprepared for such a catastrophe. Science has not yet developed a foolproof device to detect earthquakes, and the best time to prepare for the worst is now.