Staccato

Russia’s moves in Crimea are as fast as the search for MH370 is slow.

Last Sunday, a referendum was called in the region where, expectedly, nearly 97% of voters chose to join the Russian Federation. A day after, a treaty was signed between the Crimean government and Moscow, bringing the region into the Russian Federation. In about two months, Crimea will shift its currency from the Ukrainian hryvnia to the Russian ruble.

In a word, Russia has effectively annexed Crimea, a region disputed for centuries. This happens in the face of feeble warnings from the western powers.

The ethnic Russian majority in Crimea is obviously happy with the turn of events. In Russia itself, Vladimir Putin’s approval ratings shot through the roof.

Ukraine is obviously unhappy about losing control of Crimea. Ukrainian Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk described the annexation as “robbery on an international scale.” His beleaguered government, installed hastily after Viktor Yanukovych was unceremoniously ousted on the crest of a popular revolt just three weeks ago, ordered his troops to use arms if necessary to defend Ukrainian citizens.

The day after that order was issued, one Ukrainian soldier was killed resisting take-over of yet another Crimean base. While Kiev warns of imminent war, no one seems to be taking Ukraine seriously. Russia has massed troops on Ukraine’s eastern border and flooded Crimea itself with special forces. If war breaks out, it will be lopsided and therefore brief.

Market analysts seem to have concluded the Crimean question is effectively settled. The day after Russia formally declared Crimea’s annexation, stock markets skyrocketed across the globe.

UK foreign minister William Hague declared that by annexing Crimea, “Russia has chosen the path of isolation.” The G-8 (an informal association of highly developed countries) subsequently dropped Russia from membership. That is about the outer limits of sanctions against Russia the developed countries are prepared to undertake.

The western powers attempted to get a resolution condemning Russia’s action passed by the UN Security Council. That might have provided a legal framework for more telling punitive actions against Russia. The resolution was, as expected, blocked by a Russian veto.

Without a UN resolution, there is really nothing much the western powers could do beyond cancelling visas of Russian and Crimean officials. No overt military action could be taken, even to save Ukraine if it is attacked. Any trade sanction will hurt both sides.

The Europeans are particularly reluctant to escalate things. Western Europe is dependent on Russian oil and gas exports — as much as Russia is dependent on revenues from sales of these resources to prop up its own economy. Neither wants to escalate the confrontation beyond the realm of the usual, obligatory denunciations.

Putin holds the initiative in this unfolding geopolitical drama. No one expected the pace with which he moved things: the undeclared military occupation of Crimea, the referendum, and the formal annexation.

The west is left to eat dust. Putin correctly estimated the western leaders will behave like wimps in a big-time power play and acted accordingly.

Some analysts are saying Russian action on Crimea will backfire in the long run. The annexation transformed Ukraine into a hostile state right on Russia’s borders. The means by which Moscow has influenced leadership selection in Ukrainian politics (using the pro-Russian Crimean vote) is now lost because Crimea will no longer be an electoral factor in Ukrainian politics.

But that is in the long run. As John Meynard Keynes so famously observed about long economic curves: “In the long run we will all be dead.”

In the short run, Moscow has trumped everybody else. Russia secured its strategic ice-free naval bases in Crimea. Putin demonstrated he can do something brash and get away with it — harvesting domestic popularity in the process.

The more sanctions are imposed on Russia, the more the country will likely dig its heels and the more it will stoke the passions of Russian nationalism. Much has been said about the “Russian soul.” That is largely about an inward-looking tendency, fearful of European powers and intent on using other countries on its borders as buffer against the rest of humanity.

Russia always thinks it stands alone. It seems even more prepared to live that now, relishing the isolation rather than suffering it.

9-Dash

When the UN Security Council considered the resolution denouncing Russian actions in Crimea, the veto from Moscow was expected. The only suspense involved China’s vote on the matter.

Both Russia and China are permanent members of the Security Council and enjoy vote powers. China almost consistently voted with Russia on key issues in international politics, including the massive repression in Syria.

This time, however, China chose to distance itself from Russia without aligning itself with the western position on Crimea. Beijing did not need to deliver a veto. The Russian veto suffices to kill the resolution.

Nevertheless, the bold moves taken by Putin, the apparent helplessness of the western powers in the face of such audacity and the domestic popularity Putin reaps must be instructive for the Chinese leaders. Much as Beijing maintains its usual inscrutable posture on a matter not directly concerning China’s interests, its abstention raises concern.

To put it bluntly, what Russia did in Crimea with astounding swiftness, China could do in the South China Sea where barren shoals are hotly contested. It is a much easier maneuver for China to implant its forces in the contested (and unpopulated) shoals and reefs in the sea Beijing wants securely in its fold.

We can only wait and see the extent Putin has inspired his Chinese counterparts.