Bashar al-Assad, besieged Syrian leader, has made no public appearance since the bomb attack that nearly wiped out his top security team. Reports have it that Assad fled to the Latakia region, expecting protection from his loyal clansmen.
It is easy to understand Assad’s paranoia.
Last Wednesday, a bomb detonated right inside the crisis control room at the national security headquarters in Damascus. The bomb went off just as the top security team convened for a meeting, killing the defense minister, his deputy who is Assad’s brother in law as well as Assad’s top internal security adviser. The interior minister was seriously injured by the blast.
This is a most audacious attack. The crisis meeting room is the equivalent of the famed Situation Room in Washington. It is supposed to be among the most secure locations in Syria.
The national security headquarters is close to Assad’s palace right at the heart of Damascus. It is entirely possible Assad heard the blast from where he was. The casualties were the top men directing the brutal suppression campaign the regime waged for 16 months now.
Assad immediately named replacements for the dead and the injured. There is little doubt the campaign of suppression will continue with added intensity. The psychological impact of this audacious rebel operation will, however, be irreparable. More and more, it seems, the civil war in Syria has reached tipping point.
Over the past week, street fighting has shifted from provincial cities to the streets of Damascus itself. The Assad regime pulled in armor and artillery units from other cities to defend the capital. Helicopter gunships have been strafing Damascus neighborhoods relentlessly.
The rebel units fighting in Damascus seem to be adequately armed. Video of burning tanks emanated from the scene of the fighting. That indicates the rebels are equipped with anti-tank weapons. Both Saudi Arabia and Qatar openly support the uprising against the Assad regime. There are reports of Syrian army units defecting to the side of the rebels.
Syria has thousands of tanks, however. The large armored capacity of the Syrian army is an offshoot of its long military confrontation with Israel. The main item of curiosity for military experts everywhere is the usefulness of heavy armor in an urban warfare setting.
The fact that elements of the rebel Free Syrian Army penetrated the security headquarters to mount the bombing attack indicates they enjoy discreet support from well-entrenched supporters within the military establishment. The extent of that support is the wild card in this civil war.
The quick turn of events in Syria is a test not only of the Assad regime’s resilience but also of the UN’s relevance.
For months, the UN struggled to get a handle on the deteriorating situation in Syria. Continued support for the Assad regime by Russia and China prevented the UN Security Council from more decisively intervening to contain the bloodshed. Kofi Anan, joint envoy of the UN and the Arab League to broker peace in Syria has so far failed in gaining any headway towards a negotiated solution to the conflict.
The bombing attack in Damascus happened on the eve of a crucial UN Security Council meeting to decide on both the continuation of the UN observer mission and the possibility of imposing international sanctions on the Assad regime. The meeting was put on hold to enable the UN to take better stock of the situation.
Neither Russia nor China appear ready to soften their positions. Because the two countries enjoy veto power at the Security Council, no UN-backed initiative may be carried out beyond what the two countries allow.
A well-attended “friends of Syria” meeting held in Paris two weeks ago illustrated the depth of international concern over the brutality inflicted by the Assad regime on its people. The meeting, however, failed to impress either Russia or China. The countries engaged in that meeting are not inclined to get involved in Syria without UN cover.
Even if China and Russia dramatically change their attitude the next few days, all may be too late. While the international community basically stood by, offering little beyond words of sympathy and expressions of concern, events in Syria careened along its bloody course.
With small arms and an abundance of courage, the people’s uprising in Syria appears to be closing in on a hated dictatorship. The toll has been devastating. Estimates put the number of dead caused by the brutal suppression campaign waged by Assad at about 15,000. Even that atrocious number speaks little of the torture, the terror and the terrible nightmare endured by the Syrians.
The civil war has reached a point where all talk of a negotiated peace will be quixotic. The popular rage will no longer be contained. Both sides are geared up for a decisive battle.
Rebel fighters are reported to be streaming in from all over Syria into Damascus even as the Assad regime concentrates its forces in the capital. From all indications, the city will be the principal arena for this bloody confrontation. This hapless city will be in ruins before all the smoke clears.
It is too late now for the rest of the world to intervene. We might blame Russia and China for standing in the way of an effective international response, although that will matter very little at this point. There is no available institutional means for humanity to exact a price from Beijing and Moscow for their pigheadedness.
For our part, we can only dispatch an emergency response team to try to rescue the thousands of Filipinos trapped in this civil war. Even that might be a late effort.