The Virginia-class fast attack nuclear submarine USS North Carolina (SSN-777), one of the deadliest and most modern in the arsenal of the US Navy, has suddenly surfaced unannounced at the old US naval base in Subic.
Its sudden appearance, right in the thick of escalating tensions between the Philippines and China over ownership of the Scarborough Shoal, cannot but invite immediate interpretations by anyone willing to put forth his two cents worth of analysis.
Is this a subtle indication of American willingness to come to the aid of the Philippines in case its conflict with China escalates any further? Remember, the US and the Phl have a mutual defense treaty. But remember too that the US has openly rejected any automatic American response.
Nevertheless, what the US cannot say openly can be expressed in some other way. And one of these can be precisely this surfacing of a US nuclear sub in our waters at this precise time. The US, after all, is an expert in double-speak.
Officially, the US says the submarine is here for reprovisioning. Now, nothing can be a more plausible enough reason than a claim to be taking on supplies. Even China will have to admit albeit grudgingly that taking on supplies is always part of any naval activity.
But China is not stupid to ignore the fact that the sudden surfacing of a US sub in Phl waters packs with it a wallop of a message. And China would not be foolish enough to think the US did not intend it to be that way.
The US cannot say it never considered all the possible interpretations of its action. That it went ahead and sent the sub here means it intended China to give its action its worst possible interpretation.
In other words, it has just tossed the ball right smack into China’s court. It is now up to China how to go from here. As to the Phl, the best thing to do is see this development as very preliminary. Let us just sit tight and watch what happens. Let us not jump as if we won already.