Of the 10 cities in East Asia that are most vulnerable to climate change, four are in the Philippines: Manila, Cotabato, San Jose in Occidental Mindoro, and Roxas in Capiz.
This is according to a vulnerability assessment conducted by the World Bank.
The Philippines, in fact, is one of the countries most vulnerable to climate change and “very threatened,” according to Andrew Steer, the World Bank’s special envoy on climate change.
Filipinos can believe this, after the cataclysmic flooding triggered by typhoons “Ondoy” and “Pepeng” and, much earlier, the devastation from super typhoon “Milenyo.”
The good news is that the Philippines could become a global role model in climate change mitigation and adaptation.
Again that’s Steer speaking. He has a pretty positive outlook about the way we’re coping with climate change, and he and the World Bank are cheering us on.
“We’d like to see the Philippines become a best practice example, particularly on the adaptation side. We need success stories,” Steer told me in an interview the other day, shortly before he left the country for Indonesia. “The world is short of leadership in this area… we need countries that are giving it priority.”
Steer, an economist, was the director general of policy and research at the UK Department of International Development when he was asked to become the first special envoy on climate change of the World Bank.
The position was created, Steer told me, after World Bank Group President Robert Zoellick “came to the conclusion that climate change is a real game changer for us.”
Steer noted the “remarkable progress” over the last 20 years in poverty reduction and attainment of Millennium Development Goals. “But it’s really all threatened by climate change,” he said.
He assumed the post in July last year and the bank has since been working with 130 countries to promote climate change initiatives.
Among Steer’s tasks is to study each country for examples of “innovation, creativity, real action” that he can cite in negotiations to push for climate change measures.
The World Bank has seen some of these in the Philippines, Steer said as he cited the passage of laws on climate change, the creation of the Climate Change Commission, and the crafting of an action plan that the commission was expected to submit to President Aquino yesterday.
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What has been the biggest challenge so far in Steer’s job? He told me that countries look at other countries, “especially the West, and say, well, they’re not doing very much so why should we?”
But he said there’s been a sea change in this attitude. Nations are realizing that they need not give up economic growth or job creation to deal with climate change.
In fact “it’s just bad economics to leave things as they are,” Steer said. “It’s four times cheaper to try and address the problem now than the cost of not addressing it.”
This is one of several arguments that he uses to sell climate change initiatives to skeptics, although he said the argument “doesn’t move me.”
What moves him is the argument that rich people caused the problem but it’s the poor who are “disproportionately affected” – the ones whose flimsy homes are easily washed away by torrential floods or whose small farms are destroyed by extreme weather.
I sensed that what moves Steer more is a third argument: the notion of stewardship of the planet. “We are given an environment and we have an obligation to be good stewards of it,” he told me. “To hand over a rotten or degraded planet is something we should be ashamed of.”
A fourth argument, he said, is gaining traction: “Green growth is actually a more exciting, more productive option than old-fashioned growth.”
Using resources more efficiently – this, he said, “is what it’s really all about.” He cited China, saying it “clearly has reached the conclusion that becoming a world leader in green technology is a winning ticket for it.”
That winning ticket is not for all, but each country can lead in some area. The Philippines, for example, could become a global leader in green agriculture and water resource management.
“You can certainly become a leader in adaptation, out of necessity,” he told me.
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The World Bank sees the potential impact of climate change on the Philippines as “very severe.”
Steer said because of climate change, typhoons in the Philippines are expected to get “a lot worse.” Temperatures will rise by about three to four degrees (check out what that does to your home air-conditioning), with potentially serious effects on agriculture. Rising sea levels can endanger the 60 percent of the country’s 1,500 municipalities that lie in coastal areas.
The World Bank is glad to note that the Philippines is “very systematically trying to diagnose the problem” and the whole country is involved in the effort, Steer said.
One area where there’s room for improvement is in the country’s tapping of international financing – through carbon offset markets, for example.
The World Bank, which administers a zero-interest Clean Technology Fund together with the Asian Development Bank, has approved a $250-million program proposed by the Philippine government on transport and energy. WB Country Director Bert Hofman told me that the bank is also preparing a line of credit – about $250 million to $400 million – that the Philippines can tap in case of a major natural disaster.
“If you do it right, if you’re smart and you’re clever at tapping into international finance that’s specially available for climate change, you can grow just as fast, possibly faster; you can reduce poverty just as much, possibly more; and you can create just as much jobs, possibly more,” Steer said.
There’s another problem that was brought to his attention during his three-day visit. Several Filipinos bemoaned, “Oh yes, we’re good at doing plans but not so good at implementation.”
If the Philippines wants international financing, it must show results and an effective monitoring system. “Climate funding is going to support real results,” Steer said. “It’s not going to support nice intentions.”
A monitoring system is being put in place. Steer believes climate change initiatives are given priority in this country especially because it is a land of religious faith, where people value “the goodness of creation and protecting it is a very strong motivating factor.”
“Who wants to hand down to their great-grandchildren a degraded world?” he asked.