That seems to be the attitude of the international community in regard to North Koran strongman Kim Jong-Il. Impose financial and trade sanctions on that "nut in Pyongyang" because of his recent nuclear test, but don’t threaten military action. Like a cornered wild animal, the guy might just blow up humanity along with him.
When everyone, with the possible exceptions of the United States and Britain, took the military option off the table, in favor of a "diplomatic approach," the hermit kingdom knew it was home free.
Diplomatic negotiations, meaning mostly food for atomic bombs, can now be expected to result in the international community rescuing the North from widespread famine and poverty. But Kim will hang on to his nuclear playthings, and threaten to trot them out again when he feels international pressure is getting a little too heavy.
It’s the very political instability and economic stagnation to which Kim has condemned his country that he’s now using, with notable success, to convince neighbors like China and South Korea to hold extreme action and just learn to live with the dictator.
Both China and South Korea are certain that international isolation will cause the Kim regime to collapse. But it turns out that the fall of Kim is precisely what they do NOT want. Both fear that vaunted "flood of refugees" from the North streaming into their borders, causing pressure on relief and, over the longer term, livelihood resources.
China recently sent a high-level diplomatic mission to Pyongyang to express Beijing’s displeasure over the recent nuclear test, and to warn North Korea against further tests. At first, it seemed that the Chinese action had been effective: The North supposedly "apologized" for the first test, and promised it wouldn’t be engaging in any more tests.
But then a correction, surprisingly from the Chinese foreign ministry officials who had been at the meeting: North Korean leaders, they clarified, had not apologized and had merely insisted they were not planning further tests. That sounded like a face-saving ploy by the North, in which the Chinese seemed to be complicit.
Either that, or the Chinese and North Koreans have reached an agreement of some kind, which neither is telling the West about. After all, it was only China that had received a four-hour advance warning of the October nuclear test. Yet, China, significantly, didn’t appear to do anything to try to stop that test. Not that any such protest would have halted the test. But it is at least arguable that a strong Chinese objection at the time may have caused Kim to think twice.
But, recall that we started with the proposition that we’re dealing with a wild madman. Thus, it’s not at all clear what a protest would have achieved, especially one lodged with someone who historians now claim led good-faith delegations of the US, including one headed by no less than then US Secretary of State Madeleine Albright, down a primrose path of deception and outright lies.
This happened during the heady days of bilateral talks attempted during the Clinton years. President George W. Bush, for his part, has refused to return to bilateral talks, which he says don’t work, and prefers multilateral negotiations. The North, however, rejects Six-Party talks between the US, North and South Korea, China, Russia and Japan.
The US, the North seems convinced, is driving international aversion to Kim, and won’t be satisfied with anything less than regime change. That terrifies China and North Korea which have opted for more "prudent" ways to get the message across.
So, the long and the short of it is that North Korea seems to have gotten away with its nuclear program and may even eventually join the Nuclear Club. China continues to rattle its saber, but pursues peaceful diplomatic means. South Korea has fired its Unification Minister, banned Northerners from visiting the South, essentially ceased trade with the Kim regime . . . . and done little else!
The United Nations has imposed financial and trade sanctions on North Korea. But no one is confident that those sanctions will work. To prevent a global Armageddon, there is even opinion to the effect that the world should just learn to live with a nuclear North Korea, in the same way it has accepted the reality of other nuclear nations.
George Bush still gives tough speeches, but everyone knows that any talk of armed action falls flat on a home audience that is still reeling from setbacks in Iraq, including the somber report that October saw the biggest casualties among the US forces in that divided country.
Besides, Bush is clearly pre-occupied with mid-term elections set for the first week of November, elections which polls now say may see his Republican Party losing control of both the US House of Representatives and the Senate.
So, does this mean that that nut in Pyongyang isn’t such a nut after all, and that being willing to gamble all one’s money on one throw of the dice pays off sometimes?
Maybe so, but the weird thing about risking it all on one throw is that you can also lose it all. And in international relations, the dice tends to roll for a very long time. Just ask the Chinese, who reputedly think in terms of decades or centuries, not days or weeks.
At the moment, Kim Jong-Il seems to be on a bit of a streak. While he can’t claim total victory, he’s not quite losing completely either. Still, final judgments seem premature. Maybe it’s just the timing . . . or pure luck, which is about to run out on our wild man in Pyongyang.
At the same time, whether a Presidential Executive Order can transfer the Professional Regulation Commission to the Department of Labor and Employment is still up in the air, crying for resolution by the Supreme Court. It was the DOLE that stopped PRC from administering oaths to successful examinees.
Moreover, some petitioners argue that the CA dodged the issue of the "taint" that allegedly infected the 2006 exam. Our take on this continuing mess, next time.