There is good reason to believe that the former president may have really concluded that the debilitating political turmoil the country suffers with alarming regularity can only be prevented with fundamental changes in the way government is run.
Also, FVR has never been shy about his deep commitment to Charter change. We are constantly reminded that that precedent-setting case of Defensor-Santiago vs. Comelec, which laid down the rule that Republic Act No. 6735 was "inadequate" or insufficient to effect proposed amendments to the Constitution, involved a proposal which would have directly benefited FVR.
The proposed Constitutional amendment involved in that case would have removed term limits of elected officials, including those of Senators, Congressmen and, of course, the President. That would have meant that FVR could have run in 1998 against Erap Estrada. However, Miriam Defensor-Santiago, who remains convinced she was cheated in the 1992 elections, filed the case which eventually dashed FVR hopes.
Unless he issues a statement which contradicts Lorenzana – which is not likely because the Ad-Com press release included a photo of Lito, other leaders of the group and FVR himself, all giving his patented thumbs-up sign – FVR’s adds a new and important dimension to the people’s initiative. Although certain to displease those who’ve prematurely pronounced people’s initiative, or "PI," as "dead in the water," the Cha-cha battle has now entered a more serious phase.
I have it on good authority that the more perceptive among the pro-Cha-cha forces always thought that the House’s attempt to negotiate a "constituent assembly" with joint, rather than separate, voting, with the Senate would be stillborn. Sure enough, that zarzuela at the Manila Polo Club, the "summit" between House and Senate contingents, turned out to be an exercise in futility.
At the end of that travesty, the best House honchos could say to reporters "embedded" at the scene was that both sides had "agreed to disagree." To my knowledge, there has been no follow-up meeting after the Polo Club debacle, which means that disagreement is exactly the point at which the matter rests…in peace!
The assessment of House constitutional amendments committee chairman Constantino Jaraula that a "breakthrough" had been achieved became a regular cocktail party joke until it was simply forgotten. On the other hand, some congressmen, surprisingly, still cling to the hope that Senators might agree to a constituent assembly AND joint voting. This, despite the repeated statements of Senators, some of whom were at Polo Club, that they would agree to joint voting when hell freezes over. For some, I guess, hope springs eternal, no matter how vain or deluded.
FVR’s jumping on to the PI train is clear indication that like the more pragmatic pro-Cha-cha diehards, he’s come around to the conclusion that no win-win formula is possible here. Rather, the Pareto principle of optimality (although normally applied to economic situations) might have taken over: In general, no person can be made better off without making someone else worse off.
Thus, if the House wins the point regarding a constituent assembly with joint voting, the Senate will be rendered so diminished that it might as well close shop now. The only point of such a con-ass would be to assassinate the Senate institution, with the express consent of the Senators. Did the House really think the Senate was that stupid?
As things now stand, a People’s Initiative, to reiterate what we’ve said in previous columns, is the only realistic path to Charter change. And so, if it’s a rematch that FVR wants in the Supreme Court over Santiago vs. Comelec, it’s a rematch FVR will get. And it may come sooner than he thinks.
That’s because, as Executive Secretary Ed Ermita and Political Adviser Gabby Claudio, let on the other day in amplifying GMA’s Independence Day pro-chacha speech, the work of People’s Initiative spearheaded by Sigaw ng Bayan and Union of Local Authorities in the Philippines (ULAP) is supposedly complete.
According to Sigaw and ULAP, they now hold certifications from local poll officials that the Constitutional requirement of the signatures of 12 percent of the total number of registered voters in the country, and at least three percent of the voters in every legislative district, has not only been reached, it has been widely exceeded. Apparently, even in opposition bailiwicks, including the cities of Makati and San Juan, the requisite signatures have been obtained.
The battle now moves first to the Commission on Elections, where the petition containing the proposed amendments is expected to be filed shortly (as soon as a week or so) and then to the Supreme Court, when the action of the Comelec is inevitably challenged by anti-Cha-cha forces. It will soon be time to boogie, as they say.
There is no time left for a new enabling law for PI, even assuming the Senate as a whole would go along in a timely fashion with any such House or Senate bill. It is likely then that the issues before the High Court will be primarily two: the "adequacy" of R.A. No. 6735 as enabling law for people’s initiative, and whether that law, if deemed adequate, allows "revisions," as distinguished from "amendments."
No one can predict how the Supreme Court will rule, either on the adequacy issue or the question of revisions vs. amendments. Despite the bluster of both sides, I believe the case to be wide open. In regard to the alleged distinction between revisions and amendments, for example, I have set forth my views in my column entitled "Distinctions Without Differences," published last April 4th.
One thing, though, is now crystal clear and this conclusion is bolstered by FVR’s reported backing of people’s initiative: The rumors of PI’s death are greatly exaggerated.