In the recently concluded elections in the territory, the extremist group Hamas stunned the ruling Fatah faction by grabbing a majority in the parliament. Since then, the world has been treated to the spectacle of the Palestinian security forces themselves staging marches, fully armed and threatening violence to prevent the Hamas from taking over.
Hamas, of course, is bent on taking control: creating the spectacle of an anti-democratic faction exploiting the democratic space to access power.
The more imminent scenario is factional bloodletting between the more mainstream Fatah faction that was responsible for much of the gains towards Palestinian statehood and the Hamas faction that was responsible for much of the delay in achieving that statehood because of its terrorist activities.
We will recall that over the last few years, the Hamas led the Palestinian Intifada (uprising). They sent suicide bombers into Israel. In retaliation, the Israelis used precision bombing in an effort to wipe out the Hamas leadership.
Eventually, the Isrealis decided to fence their borders to prevent infiltration by terrorists. Those fences became a hostile issue between Israel and the Palestinian Authority controlled by the Fatah faction and, until his death, Yasir Arafat.
Over the last decade, the US and her allies cajoled Israel into recognizing the Palestinian authority, poured in billions of dollars in development assistance and carefully nursed a fledgling democracy credible to most of the world. That effort was driven by the hope that the moderates in Palestine would eventually consolidate their constituencies, recognize Israel as a state and evolve a modus vivendi to end the conflict that has lasted over two millennia.
For a while, it was comforting to think that with the Palestinian Authority evolving its capacity to democratically govern, firmly under the influence of moderates, a formula for peace in the Middle East was at hand. No one expected this gradual process of democratization to be so dramatically reversed precisely by the democratic means so painstakingly cultivated in so hostile an environment.
The comforting scenario of a democratic Palestine at peace with Israel was shattered a few days ago when the first full-fledged electoral exercise produced a stunning victory for extremists.
While Israel girds for trouble, the western powers have not quite figured out what to do. After all, Hamas did win in a democratic exercise.
Somehow everyone simply expected that every democratic exercise will be won by democrats. That turns out to be the most naïve element of the democratic creed.
How many times, through the 20th century, have tyrants been installed by democratic means? Remember that Adolf Hitler and his Nazis were first elected to the Bundestag.
There is frantic hope that the Hamas, once it takes over the reins of power, will start metamorphosing into a more responsible movement. There is little basis for such hope, however, even if once upon a time the Fatah movement under Arafat was a terrorist group the gradually moved towards the mainstream. The Hamas, simply said, is a movement incapable of reason.
We might never know if such a political metamorphosis could at all happen.
Over the last few years, the security forces of the Palestinian Authority have been at the forefront of the effort to suppress the Hamas militants. Blood debts have been incurred here. Because of that, the security forces appear ready to fight to prevent the Hamas from taking over the Authority.
The work of the security forces in enforcing agreements with Israel made this force appear to be allied with the enemy. This could be the reason for the political backlash against the more moderate Fatah faction.
A civil war between Palestinian factions seems certain at this point. The blueprint for democracy in Palestine seems destined for the trash bin.
There is great irony here. The force and faction expected to lead to the deepening of democracy in Palestine will now be democracy’s executioner. The forces that represented moderation and democratic gradualism now seem headed towards a coup because democracy failed in keeping the extremists out of the gates. The extremists have, in fact, entered through the main democratic corridor.
What lessons to we draw from this tragedy?
The most obvious one is that democratic processes do not guarantee democratic deepening particularly in the circumstances of a damaged popular culture. Democratic processes could backfire on the democratic project by an electorate unprepared to deal with the political responsibilities entrusted them.
In Palestine, an extremist movement has woven itself tightly into the fabric of Palestinian nationalism. Given the chance to exercise freely political choice, the Palestinian electorate chose immoderately.
The problem posed by an irresponsible electorate should not be alien to our own political history. Although in a manner less stark than what just happened in Palestine, our voters have, nearly consistently, made substandard choice in the exercise of their democratic freedoms. In a demonstration of populist whim and ideological fancy, our voters have elected semi-literate entertainers to positions of grave responsibility.
In Palestine, voters exercising democratic choice, have set the stage for a civil war. That is a tragedy.
Filipino voters, exercising their democratic choice have installed clowns in positions of power and set the stage for an incessant political carnival. I am not sure that is less of a tragedy, considering that the quality of politicians we have installed have curtailed our opportunities for progress.
I am not confident that allowing our voters to make their choices freely will result in enhancing the capacity of our state and capability of our statesmen in making far-sighted policy choices – choices that may seem unpopular in the short run.